Farside sunspots don't look too bad, hopefully they keep their size and complexity by the time they reach the Earth-facing side.

7 hours ago, Aten said:

Neutrons are increasing at the south pole monitors.

Wow!!

5 hours ago, NightSky said:

Is it the protons that are causing the "snow fall" effect on Lasco (the white specs that are all over the view after the event)?

Yes indeed

So as an ignorant noob I have to ask -

while I know none of this burst was earth directed -

is there any chance some of this stuff could wind up in the Parker spiral and get carried here for some pretty, colorful, lights in the sky?

If yes, how long would it take?

 

Or are we all SOL with this one?

22 minutes ago, NightSky said:

So as an ignorant noob I have to ask -

while I know none of this burst was earth directed -

is there any chance some of this stuff could wind up in the Parker spiral and get carried here for some pretty, colorful, lights in the sky?

If yes, how long would it take?

 

Or are we all SOL with this one?

At the velocity it came off from no. It would bend the Parker spiral. NOAA has already analyzed everything and it’s in the forecast discussion. I believe if you scroll up a few posts someone already posted the NASA WSA-Enil showing a miss. Actually kinda shows how it bends the spiral also

7 minutes ago, JacupV said:

I believe if you scroll up a few posts someone already posted the NASA WSA-Enil showing a miss. Actually kinda shows how it bends the spiral also

Yeah I saw that.... I just wanted to believe...LOL Wishful thinking on my part   It's been dry for too long!

 

I saw that squiggly line on the spiral, too, and wondered if it was bending away from the blast. That's impressive!

15 minutes ago, NightSky said:

Yeah I saw that.... I just wanted to believe...LOL Wishful thinking on my part   It's been dry for too long!

Think everyone on the planet is hoping for another big one LOL! At least the ones of us that fallow space weather anyways. 

4 hours ago, JacupV said:

At the velocity it came off from no. It would bend the Parker spiral. NOAA has already analyzed everything and it’s in the forecast discussion. I believe if you scroll up a few posts someone already posted the NASA WSA-Enil showing a miss. Actually kinda shows how it bends the spiral also

The problem is :

- the 2nd CME is first seen at 21/1812Z

- high-energy protons levels measured at L1 start rising at 21/1820Z 

=> if protons came from that 2nd CME, and to be able to travel such a distance in only 8 minutes, they must have been ejected at light speed !!....

I wonder where these protons are from. 

PS : If protons are emitted from 1800Z instead of 1812Z, it is still very high velocity. 

6 hours ago, NightSky said:

So, can some smart person explain why the proton flux keeps climbing?

With X-ray flux it usually spikes and then comes down - sometimes fast, sometimes gradually. It;s been several hours now and the proton flux is still going up.

What is the fundamental difference between the two, or, is this because it was so far on the limb?

A simple explanation should suffice here:  The proton “ sprays” can be highly variable as can ejecta from a CME.  The lower energy particles are generally more prevalent in any case.  Hopefully that helps you.  

8 hours ago, JacupV said:

I’m sure we’ve all been watching SDO/AIA images… If for some reason you haven’t… Well... Say goodbye to the next few hours of your life LOL! For Radio Flux being in the low 160’s it was definitely an active day. Definitely not flare wise. Lots of filament movements and filament eruptions. This is why I still say it wasn’t a flare more or less a VERY big filament eruption. SDO has it in the very last frame as the video stops. I went back to Monday the 18th to see what was exactly going over the limb. From east to west AR3889 was first over the limb proceeded by AR3892, AR3897 in a straight east to west line. Above AR3892 for whatever reason was AR3895… Looking at SDO images it pretty clear it’s just on the limb and AR3889 would be to far ahead for that. Leaving either AR3892, AR3895 or AR3897… AR3892, 3895 matches more of were this eruption occurred from.. If that would’ve been an actual flare I would definitely think satellites would’ve been able to register that better as it’s not exactly on the backside and SDO seen it just fine.
 

Either way. Any actual CME should be well ahead of earth from that. There’s a few other smaller filament eruptions on SDO/AIA 304 images also that actually might have some CMEs associated with it that might be slightly closer to being earth facing but those don’t look crazy promising either.. Very possible these filament liftoffs and eruptions might keep going a bit longer as things are definitely getting stirred up. Again tho… I don’t see how it could be a double digit X flare… radio flux being at 160 doesn’t support that. Only time literally in history has a double digit X happened with a 160.. and that was the biggest ever flare and that data is so old we can hardly trust it lol. Look back at all the other top 50 flares and everything that’s a double digit X has happened with radio flux near 270… 

Really??? Hmm.  That would surprise me!!  @JacupV  Not to be too contentious here but…as typically we don’t see the larger CMEs until two years past Solar Maximum. A correlated A index might be the quickest way to verify this to be factual.  Alternatively there are Jan Alvestad's historical data charts which he has publicly available.  Radio Flux at 10.7 over 270 is anything but typical btw.   

Edit:  It is interesting that x ray flux may also be expressed in SFU or solar flux units and I myself was puzzled awhile back why the daily SFI readings weren’t elevated during a substantial series of flare events.   @helios cleared up my misconception rather well in an older thread.  SFI or solar flux index is a measurement across the relatively narrow spectrum of 100 mhz at 10.7 cm wavelength by NRC Canada. Three times daily. 

3 hours ago, Manu said:

The problem is :

- the 2nd CME is first seen at 21/1812Z

- high-energy protons levels measured at L1 start rising at 21/1820Z 

=> if protons came from that 2nd CME, and to be able to travel such a distance in only 8 minutes, they must have been ejected at light speed !!....

I wonder where these protons are from. 

PS : If protons are emitted from 1800Z instead of 1812Z, it is still very high velocity. 

well, if my calculations are correct, 20min travel time would correspond to ~100MeV protons (for a straight line journey), so still high energy but not that high. 

10 hours ago, NightSky said:

So, can some smart person explain why the proton flux keeps climbing?

With X-ray flux it usually spikes and then comes down - sometimes fast, sometimes gradually. It;s been several hours now and the proton flux is still going up.

What is the fundamental difference between the two, or, is this because it was so far on the limb?

 

3 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

A simple explanation should suffice here:  The proton “ sprays” can be highly variable as can ejecta from a CME.  The lower energy particles are generally more prevalent in any case.  Hopefully that helps you. 

I have also wondered about that. It could be that :

- slower particules from the energy distribution arrive later (corresponding to what @hamateur 1953 said, if I understood correctly)

- and also for a given velocity, particules with straight path arrive first, but there may be a lot of much more complicated paths (including in the sun close vicinity) which arrive later

- or some particules are still emitted long after the event, which could be related to the latter point

Just my hypotheses. I am very curious about that and would like to learn more.

Edited November 22, 2024Nov 22 by Manu

1 hour ago, Manu said:

well, if my calculations are correct, 20min travel time would correspond to ~100MeV protons (for a straight line journey), so still high energy but not that high. 

 

I have also wondered about that. It could be that :

- slower particules from the energy distribution arrive later (corresponding to what @hamateur 1953 said, if I understood correctly)

- and also for a given velocity, particules with straight path arrive first, but there may be a lot of much more complicated paths (including in the sun close vicinity) which arrive later

- or some particules are still emitted long after the event, which could be related to the latter point

Just my hypotheses. I am very curious about that and would like to learn more.

Very good.  Imho. @Philalethes describes the velocities of the higher energies much better later in another thread   Incidentally this is only our second GLE this cycle unless STCE has recorded another I am unaware of.  

Edited November 22, 2024Nov 22 by hamateur 1953
Wrong thread. GLE noted

2 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Very good.  Imho. @Philalethes describes the velocities of the higher energies much better later in another thread 

Thanks, got to look at that! If someone remembers where it is?

4 minutes ago, Manu said:

Thanks, got to look at that! If someone remembers where it is?

3901 thread I think 

Maybe you are referring to this post ?

On 11/1/2024 at 9:21 PM, Philalethes said:

The dynamics of how protons propagate through the heliosphere are quite complex, so take whatever I say here with a grain of salt, but I'm not so sure about that "initial burst" assumption either. Maybe I just haven't paid enough attention to SPEs, but it seems to me the general pattern is typically more that the particles at different energies initially rise to a peak over some time (different for the different energies), even though that rise might be a bit chaotic and "jagged" early on. Maybe the "initial burst" might just be due to that early irregularity, i.e. some of the highest-energy ones that end up in a connecting trajectory early on more due to being "lucky", before diffusion and other statistical processes take over to smooth out the rise and subsequent fall. Seems plausible to me, at least.

 

Edited November 22, 2024Nov 22 by Manu

29 minutes ago, Manu said:

Maybe you are referring to this post ?

I think they're referring to the posts from just recently in the 3901 thread, this and this post.

Your calculation for the 100 MeV protons is entirely correct, they'd arrive in just under 20 minutes (assuming a straight line). However, those very first protons are 500+ MeV protons (which also get counted as 100+ MeV protons), and they arrive in 11 minutes at most (again assuming a straight line as you did, the actual path is curved), which fits the timeline quite well considering uncertainties in exactly when the eruption happened. Also note that the first significant uptick is at 18:25 (I noted in that thread that it was at 18:30 since the ≥500 MeV ones didn't rise beyond natural fluctuations until then, but we can actually see it from looking at the other lines that it is indeed at 18:25 the rise happens).

So roughly 15 minutes along the curved path for protons that would take 11 minutes at most along a straight line; seems quite reasonable to me.

25 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

I think they're referring to the posts from just recently in the 3901 thread, this and this post.

Many thanks, I am going to look at that. 

25 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Also note that the first significant uptick is at 18:25

Yes indeed, you are right!

25 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

However, those very first protons are 500+ MeV protons 

But the 500+ MeV protons only cannot explain the total rise at 18:25UTC : you can see that at this very moment the 100+ MeV level is well above 500+ MeV level, which remains quite low in comparison, meaning there must have been protons below 500MeV already arrived at 18:25UTC. I called them (improperly) 100MeV. 

Also when I say longer path, I don't mean curved but scattered or anything that might happen close the sun or between the sun and the earth, which I have no idea of.

Edited November 22, 2024Nov 22 by Manu

3 minutes ago, Manu said:

But the 500+ MeV protons only cannot explain the total rise at 18:25UTC : you can see that at this very moment the 100+ MeV level is well above 500+ MeV level, which remains quite low in comparison, meaning there must have been protons below 500MeV already arrived at 18:25UTC. I called them (improperly) 100MeV. 

That's true, that the 100+ MeV line rises higher means we're definitely dealing with a significant portion of protons in between the two; and likewise, that the 10+ and 50+ lines match the 100+ one almost perfectly means they account for the entire flux at that point.

Considering how 300 MeV protons would make the trip (in a straight line) in just under 13 minutes, and 200 MeV ones in just under 15 minutes, it still seems perfectly reasonable to me that they're from that blast. Would stand to reason that most of the protons having arrived at that point would e.g. have been 300+ MeV protons.

Indeed, if you look at the differential protons published by SWPC, which you can find on the data page and see a plot of here, you can see that there's a big rise in protons of such intermediate energies, the highest category being 276 to 404 MeV (there's no higher one for the differential ones, so I wonder what kind of channel they use for the 500+ MeV ones); it's hard to tell the timings due to how zoomed out the plot is, but the data is here in case you'd like to plot it and see (I'm even tempted to do so myself, heh).

According to STIX the largest flare on the far side yesterday was a GOES approximate C5 occurring around 18utc so it was almost assuredly a filament eruption that caused the ejection.

https://datacenter.stix.i4ds.net/view/ql/lightcurves#

Edited November 22, 2024Nov 22 by Cokelley

18 minutes ago, Cokelley said:

According to STIX the largest flare on the far side yesterday was a GOES approximate C5 occurring around 18utc so it was almost assuredly a filament eruption that caused the ejection.

https://datacenter.stix.i4ds.net/view/ql/lightcurves#

SolO is not currently on the far side, it's as close to Earth's longitude as it'll get in a while (only ~4° off). There's a nice visualization here.

It's extremely unlikely that this event was caused by a filament eruption, and I haven't really seen any evidence for any such eruption in the imagery either.

1 hour ago, Philalethes said:

SolO is not currently on the far side, it's as close to Earth's longitude as it'll get in a while (only ~4° off). There's a nice visualization here.

It's extremely unlikely that this event was caused by a filament eruption, and I haven't really seen any evidence for any such eruption in the imagery either.

Thank you for the clarification, I apologize for that mistake.

1 hour ago, Philalethes said:

SolO is not currently on the far side, it's as close to Earth's longitude as it'll get in a while (only ~4° off). There's a nice visualization here.

It's extremely unlikely that this event was caused by a filament eruption, and I haven't really seen any evidence for any such eruption in the imagery either.

Didn’t see an eruption in images? What? 😐

Edited November 22, 2024Nov 22 by JacupV
Autocorrect mistake

5 hours ago, Philalethes said:

That's true, that the 100+ MeV line rises higher means we're definitely dealing with a significant portion of protons in between the two; and likewise, that the 10+ and 50+ lines match the 100+ one almost perfectly means they account for the entire flux at that point.

Considering how 300 MeV protons would make the trip (in a straight line) in just under 13 minutes, and 200 MeV ones in just under 15 minutes, it still seems perfectly reasonable to me that they're from that blast. Would stand to reason that most of the protons having arrived at that point would e.g. have been 300+ MeV protons.

Yes ok, timings are consistent with travel times. I agree that those protons must come from this event.

Anyway, that must have been a noticeable flare. I would be curious to know what kind of 'X' it was. I think there was another far side event like that a few weeks ago, with a S2 or S3 radiation storm. 

5 hours ago, Philalethes said:

Indeed, if you look at the differential protons published by SWPC, which you can find on the data page and see a plot of here, you can see that there's a big rise in protons of such intermediate energies, the highest category being 276 to 404 MeV (there's no higher one for the differential ones, so I wonder what kind of channel they use for the 500+ MeV ones); it's hard to tell the timings due to how zoomed out the plot is, but the data is here in case you'd like to plot it and see (I'm even tempted to do so myself, heh).

I had forgotten about this page with differential protons level. Great info there, thanks. Yes, it would be cool to be able to zoom on those charts.

6 hours ago, Philalethes said:

I think they're referring to the posts from just recently in the 3901 thread, this and this post..

Ok, thanks! I got the same numbers. 

7 hours ago, Philalethes said:

Indeed, if you look at the differential protons published by SWPC, which you can find on the data page and see a plot of here [...]

I am now looking at electrons on that plot and I don't see any significant rise of differential electrons from 500keV to 6.5MeV after the CME. Why is that? Those are relativistic electrons and they should also be visible just after the CME. Do we get only protons from a far side event? That would be strange.

Maybe electrons are not affected by the Parker spiral the same way as protons are

On 11/21/2024 at 5:01 PM, Cokelley said:

Can you provide the information or site the archive link for what you have mentioned here?

When I look at the archive on SWL  I only see that >10meV spiked to s1 and s2 levels on May 11th but I believe you need the >100meV spike in order to have a GLE.

I just wanted to check, thank you ! 

https://gle.oulu.fi/#/
GLE #74 on May 11, 2024 is the most recent one so far.

6 hours ago, JacupV said:

Didn’t see an eruption in images? What? 😐

I'm talking specifically about a filament eruption that could be the source. The bottom one you've circled there is a filament, but doesn't release until long after we started detecting protons; the top one is the CME in question as far as I can tell, and not a filament eruption.

2 hours ago, Manu said:

I am now looking at electrons on that plot and I don't see any significant rise of differential electrons from 500keV to 6.5MeV after the CME. Why is that? Those are relativistic electrons and they should also be visible just after the CME. Do we get only protons from a far side event? That would be strange.

Maybe electrons are not affected by the Parker spiral the same way as protons are

Great question, and I don't know exactly why that is; I suspect it has more to do with electrons being harder to accelerate along the shock front of the CME and that they're more easily scattered and lose energy more easily too. A bit like firing a bullet vs. firing a mote of dust, heh.

Edited November 22, 2024Nov 22 by Philalethes
second reply

Interesting. I have no idea about how particules are accelerated by a CME. Also I thought that there may be some sort of magnetic drift (like in the ring current on Earth where protons drift one direction and electrons the other way) : protons would be pushed our way from behind the West limb and electrons the other way. Well, I suspect this is absolutely not the case because those are not particules trapped in the Sun magnetic field and the Sun is not the Earth, etc... but just an idea...

Now regarding less energetic particules, I think the straight line assumption may not work well like for high-energy particules. If I remember correctly, when there is a flux rope, all protons plots in EPAM change at the sane time and not according to their corresponding velocity. So there may be some sort of strong coupling with the IMF which makes things different?