1 hour ago, Philalethes said:

@Nathan Majors:

As far as I know, satellites did just fine yesterday. At least I haven't heard of any reports about lost ones yet.

 

2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

 

Wasn't Starlink satellites one of the things talked about earlier or in the other thread? 🤔

8 minuten geleden, Bedreamon zei:

Starlink satellites

They’re in good shape:

 

1 minute ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

They’re in good shape:

 

exactly. they have ways to mitigate

2 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

exactly. they have ways to mitigate

Well they learned the lesson the hard way when they launched during a geomagnetic storm 😜

Dunno how relevant this is, but NOAA is saying there's been reported grid irregularities. I don't know of any specific instances though, mainly because I'm avoiding social media. I saw some outages on DownDetector, but didn't research further.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g5-conditions-reached-yet-again

Edited May 11, 20241 yr by Bedreamon

guys, why panic, even if the Internet is turned off, it’s okay haha, it will be fun! And so I’m exaggerating, everything will be ok, what a beauty it is, it’s nature, guys.

Edited May 11, 20241 yr by Денис Максименко

1 minute ago, Денис Максименко said:

guys, why panic, even if the Internet is turned off, it’s okay haha, it will be fun! And so I’m exaggerating, everything will be ok, what a beauty it is, it’s nature, guys.

I appreciate your calmness, and I am really happy that you are feeling okay!
I have to live in a long-distance relationship for a few months, and its really stressing for me right now.

But I enjoy the aurora, so does my partner.  

3 minutes ago, LeoFiveSeven said:

Я ценю ваше спокойствие и очень рада, что с вами все в порядке!
Мне придется жить в отношениях на расстоянии в течение нескольких месяцев, и сейчас для меня это очень стресс.

Но мне нравится полярное сияние, как и моему партнеру.  

Only because of this? I’ll tell you that I’m a Ukrainian living in Italy and also with my partner at a distance for a year, but I’m not worried because she’ll arrive soon, I used to worry about these outbursts because I was stupid and didn’t know everything about it, but now I understand that this is nature and this is an absolutely normal phenomenon of outbreaks, CME, etc. In general, I said, I’m exaggerating, there will be no shutdown of the Internet, this is complete nonsense, nonsense!

On 5/11/2024 at 12:26 PM, Marcel de Bont said:

At 22:54 UTC yes we reached the G5 threshold, the first time in 21 years. Your internet is safe, no worries. Our server might go up in flames with all this traffic, but the internet itself is safe. 

The fire extinguisher was big enough to put out all the server flames by the looks of it. 🙂

The news is reacting to this very much like they did with the "millennium bug" where all the computers were going to suddenly stop working when we hit 2000 because of the formatting and storage of calendar data for dates in and after the year 2000. It all got so blown out of proportion that some companies started to predict the damage which would be caused by "the bug" claiming the damages would be anything in the range of $400 million and $600 billion to fix.

When 2000 came around everything was really minor in terms of errors, errors on bus ticketing systems and such. But the media made it out to be this enormous disaster. 

The media love to be sensationalist and it's best to take everything with a large pinch of salt.

Edited May 12, 20241 yr by ElementalAnarchy
Typo

So i had a related electronic malfunction. I have a Lutron automated lighting system, consisting of a controller and power modules in panels, with breakers, that sends power to each lighting circuit. So like around 10pm-11pm est on Friday. My lights start flashing on and off, not unusual power outages happen, that's usually a hint one is coming. But it doesn't stop flashing, walk out the room every open circuit is flashing, i turn on another room switch, flashing lights. I power cycle the controller, and lose control of all switches. Power down head unit, then flip all breakers on light panels, some are already tripped and woudn't reset, turned all breakers off. Tried to switch some on again still blinking, but noticed a fluorescent fixture wasn't blinking, so I had one light. Left it till morning, same problem. So I went to main panel and cycled lighting panel breakers, turned on head unit and  hit the light panel breakers and all systems nominal. weird, head unit is protected by mains line conditioner and plugged into surge/battery backup unit. No other electronics affected (and yes breakers are off today.)

Edited May 12, 20241 yr by gonezo

10 hours ago, gonezo said:

So i had a related electronic malfunction. I have a Lutron automated lighting system, consisting of a controller and power modules in panels, with breakers, that sends power to each lighting circuit. So like around 10pm-11pm est on Friday. My lights start flashing on and off, not unusual power outages happen, that's usually a hint one is coming. But it doesn't stop flashing, walk out the room every open circuit is flashing, i turn on another room switch, flashing lights. I power cycle the controller, and lose control of all switches. Power down head unit, then flip all breakers on light panels, some are already tripped and woudn't reset, turned all breakers off. Tried to switch some on again still blinking, but noticed a fluorescent fixture wasn't blinking, so I had one light. Left it till morning, same problem. So I went to main panel and cycled lighting panel breakers, turned on head unit and  hit the light panel breakers and all systems nominal. weird, head unit is protected by mains line conditioner and plugged into surge/battery backup unit. No other electronics affected (and yes breakers are off today.)

In NZ some Tesla's had issues with GPS on autopilot. Phantom braking, and mistaking which road they're on (In Auckland there's a 50kmh road that runs alongside the motorway, so they were slowing down to 50kmh on the motorway, and sometimes doing 100kmh on the 50kmh road.)

Our TV signal also wasn't happy. Occasionally there was static areas on the screen. Everything else was fine that I'm aware of.

6 hours ago, Stephen Traynor said:

In NZ some Tesla's had issues with GPS on autopilot. Phantom braking, and mistaking which road they're on (In Auckland there's a 50kmh road that runs alongside the motorway, so they were slowing down to 50kmh on the motorway, and sometimes doing 100kmh on the 50kmh road.)

Our TV signal also wasn't happy. Occasionally there was static areas on the screen. Everything else was fine that I'm aware of.

 

Just now, Annette said:

 

My mum said.."he was born way ahead of his time kid (Tesla) and it's become obvious modern mankind couldn't even survive without it (electricity) it's amazing to think we spent thousands of years getting here for this" 🙄 😂

On 5/11/2024 at 3:52 PM, arjemma said:

I live in Sweden and my house had several power outages yesterday but it was resolved quickly.

There was an article in Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet where they talked with a man who works with the power grid. He said that they were notified before the storm arrived and that they did lower the power in the grid to brace for the storm. Which seems to be helping as the outages were really short.

Would it be possible to cite the source? 

10 hours ago, Shin said:

Would it be possible to cite the source? 

Here is the article that talked about the power grid and how Svenska Kraftnät lowered the capacity of the power grid because of the solar storm: https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/3MJ1XA/solstorm-hot-mot-svenska-elnatet

On 5/20/2024 at 5:20 AM, Christopher Shriver said:

For a few reasons, global national security being chief among them, governments are looking into alternatives and successor technologies to GPS for any critical navigation infrastructure, at all levels. It has proven to be vulnerable to jamming and prone to failure under light to moderate storming conditions. I believe it may be a decade before we can deprecate GPS technology, but for now it is worth noting that relatively recent developments have prompted an initiative to replace it. In any case, hurrah for progress!

Oh that's really cool to know! It'll be interesting to see what concepts emerge.

On 5/21/2024 at 3:22 AM, Stephen Traynor said:

Oh that's really cool to know! It'll be interesting to see what concepts emerge.

You should take a look at US's Space Development Agency's PWSA(Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture) program. They have a layer called Navigation, which is supposed to be independent of GPS. Although, this wouldn't be for civilian use. The program is now part of an wider initiative called JADC2(Joint All-Domain Command and Control), which is purely for military.

Hey, everyone. Just curious if we have any stats on how many satellites were lost during the May solar storms? I've read that earth lost half its satellites during the 2003 Halloween solar storms, either to needing to be shutdown completely or were just permanently destroyed.

I bring this up because Ben Davidson shared this source on the huge affect the May solar storm had on satellites that wasn't experienced during the Halloween solar storms.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2406.08617

Its seems to me that the Halloween solar storms were far more catastrophic for satellites and the reason that satellites during the May storms used their thrusters more, as sited by thr article, was because we have learned from past experiences and adapted, but we also have FAR more satellites in orbit now. Curious what everyone's thoughts are on the matter.

Sorry to bring up a topic from suspicious observers, but following that channel for so long had played a number on me and this is a way to get over the fear mongering and find truth. Thanks!

25 minutes ago, Captain Jiffy said:

Ben Davidson

lol. Go look at what his first YouTube videos are about. He literally just talks about one conspiracy that becomes mainstream and then hops onto the next when the first one gets debunked or falls through. The guy is a failed lawyer and has no scientific background. Of course that shouldn't gate keep from having inquiry and curiosity and wanting to learn; but numerous times authors of research articles he has cited have had to chime in how out of context his paraphrasing of their research is. 

 

From the article you linked above "A positive insight from this storm is that it helped to hasten the decay of debris objects from orbit while most satellites escaped relatively unaffected."

 

As to why satellites may have behaved differently in May compared to 2023, from the research article, "Most of the May 2024 maneuver activity is attributable to the Starlink constellation, which performs autonomous orbit maintenance and thus responds quickly to perturbing events. Onboard orbit maintenance will become more common as other proliferated LEO constellations are established"  (on top of us being bombarded by 7 cmes all in a short window, some of which may have canabalized each other on their way here). 

 

 

You have the right idea. Give yourself the credit you deserve. 

Edited June 17, 20241 yr by Yani

2 hours ago, Yani said:

lol. Go look at what his first YouTube videos are about. He literally just talks about one conspiracy that becomes mainstream and then hops onto the next when the first one gets debunked or falls through. The guy is a failed lawyer and has no scientific background. Of course that shouldn't gate keep from having inquiry and curiosity and wanting to learn; but numerous times authors of research articles he has cited have had to chime in how out of context his paraphrasing of their research is. 

 

From the article you linked above "A positive insight from this storm is that it helped to hasten the decay of debris objects from orbit while most satellites escaped relatively unaffected."

 

As to why satellites may have behaved differently in May compared to 2023, from the research article, "Most of the May 2024 maneuver activity is attributable to the Starlink constellation, which performs autonomous orbit maintenance and thus responds quickly to perturbing events. Onboard orbit maintenance will become more common as other proliferated LEO constellations are established"  (on top of us being bombarded by 7 cmes all in a short window, some of which may have canabalized each other on their way here). 

 

 

You have the right idea. Give yourself the credit you deserve. 

I had never heard of Ben Davidson or Mr Geryl prior to  joining SWL almost three years ago.  So I really didn’t miss any factual data.  I am not really surprised.   Haha. Good onya’ll !! 

I remain cautiously optimistic on the resilience of the BPS (Bulk power system), both in the US and around the world. We have certainly come a long way since 1989, or 2003. Significant advancements in standards, monitoring and mitigation practices and actions have certainly been made. No denying that as these recent super-storms of the past few decades were a wakeup call for many.

I still question the limits of these mitigating actions and if they are in fact in place by the entire BPS across the US, or just seen in regions where we know risk is greater. What kind and how much QA testing have actually gone into pushing the limits of these new advancements? Things like this ideally should be known in advance so improvements can be made where needed. Going into these storms with the highest degree of confidence should be the basic requirement.

USGS Geo-electric hazard maps are still missing the lower third of the US, last time I checked. Could this present a problem for the NERC and grid operators in making informed decisions on establishing best practices? Perhaps. During the storms of May 2024 there were exceptionally strong electric fields along the Atlantic seaboard that dipped down into these areas. So this could be a limiting factor? TMK NERC only sets the standards for the BPS. How much enforcement authority do they actually hold? Do local grid operators make the final decision to adhere to the standards? Would some rather play the odds and take the fines and penalties accessed on them by not following the standards? Paying fines may be less expensive than the investment needed to bring systems up to par. I’m not sure to what degree we can be assured of any of this. Grid operators, and even the NERC, can be very selective at times on what information they divulge to the general public as these matters are sensitive in nature.

Some of the most powerful geomagnetic storms to ever impact earth never hit their full potential due to differing Bz profiles in the IMF. What if they did? Is this something the NERC takes into account when establishing the standards? Maybe. Maybe not.

Although we all know that some of the largest and most damaging solar storms can happen anytime and outside of solar maximum, we have seen relatively quiet conditions from a solar cycle perspective in the last few decades. How would we hold up to a cycle with the amplitude that matched cycle 19? During that cycle, much of the present U.S. power grid HV transmission system of today did not exist. While there is no direct corelation with sunspot number and impacts to the grid, probabilities go up in that we will tend to see more geomagnetic activity. (aa index to sunspot number) More storms mean greater chances that we will see more impacts to the grid. We think a lot about that one singular event of Carrington class magnitude. What about lesser intensity storms but multiple ones that may happen in rapid succession and persist for a week or longer? With the right conditions we could possibly see the same storm intensity as a 1989 or 2024 event. I’m speculating of course, but how would these new grid enhancements hold up over a prolonged period of moderate to strong geomagnetic activity? Is disconnecting sensitive parts of the grid to protect others feasible in a long term scenario?

Couple that with the fact that new growth in terms of miles of HV transmission lines in the last few decades have greatly increased our exposure footprint. Modern day high kV rated lines subsequently tend to carry larger GIC flows. Its the same song and dance as with cybersecurity, as your infrastructure grows, so does your attack surface and complexity of your network. More attack surface leads to more vulnerabilities that have to be addressed, and more vulnerabilities lead to more attack vectors. There is more to protect. So the question becomes, do we truly have adequate protections on place? Are we willing to make the investment needed where needed?

On the brighter side the observed (not modeled) level of induced GIC from the 2003 storms were at or near the levels we saw during the 5/2024 storms (~100 amps). Data is still coming in so that number from 5/2024 may even be higher. And so far its been reported that impacts to power grids were mostly insignificant and minimal. So we could be trending in the right direction. But the fact remains the ability to continually and comprehensively assess the vulnerability of our grids cannot be overstated.

Just my 2 cents..

Edited July 9, 20241 yr by Indrid Cold

I’ll give ya a nickel for that summary @Indrid Cold  Haha 

On 5/9/2024 at 4:14 PM, Philalethes said:

Take a look at e.g. what an electrical engineer has to say when answering a related question ~2 years ago here:

 

This all sounds really good to the average person. Almost too good. One thing that stood out to me was this - "The reported failures in transformers due to GICs are mainly dielectric and not a result of overheating."

I would have to disagree. This would be one of the most likely scenarios especially in autotransformers. That statement alone makes me question the motive here. There is much more reliable info posted on the FERC docket where other people could be more open to express GIC related vulnerabilities with the power grid without facing lawsuits from those who had interests to protect. You may have to open a FOIA request to get ALL of the FERC information, but its possible. 

Here is a paper from 2024 that discusses this very problem. 

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2403.18070v1

41 minutes ago, Indrid Cold said:

I would have to disagree. This would be one of the most likely scenarios especially in autotransformers. That statement alone makes me question the motive here.

Not sure exactly what you're disagreeing with, I don't think that's really a contentious claim. Perhaps it wasn't clear from the post, but it's quoting this paper; there doesn't really seem to be any ulterior motive as far as I can tell.

44 minutes ago, Indrid Cold said:

Here is a paper from 2024 that discusses this very problem. 

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2403.18070v1

Well, the problem with that is that they're only addressing overheating and nothing else. They even acknowledge that other modes of failure are not considered, as well as how the fact that we have safety measures in place might (and presumably will) lead to a very different outcome:

Quote

Most importantly, we only consider transformer failure due to overheating; however, the safety switch cascade failure scenario is also a very important avenue of investigation that should be explored in the future, as well as other more complex interactions with the increasingly complex digital infrastructure automatically routing power through the electrical grid.

But even if we were to take it at face value for the sake of hypothesis, the conclusion in the abstract doesn't exactly strike me as particularly apocalyptic, heh:

Quote

Assuming a uniform 33% HVT spare capacity, our analysis indicates that a 1 in 10,000 year storm would result in approximately 1% of the population in Europe and North America experiencing a long-term (months to years) electricity loss.