18 minutes ago, arjemma said:

No you can't compare storms like that. There were more than 2 CME's launched at earth during the Halloween storming 2003. There were CME's from M-class flares that some people forget. We had a kp index of 8+ to 9 during three days (29, 30 and 31st October). You can't say that there were 2 G5 CME's, instead there was G5 storming (or close to G5) during 3 days as a combined effect from all the CME's that hit earth during those days.

Like @mozy said we have a G4 warning right now which means that the storms combined can cause G4 storming. We have no idea yet what CME will be the strongest or how they will behave. 

You are right that this is not the same thing, this scenario is most likely weaker than in 2003.

Great comment! very true. 😎

12 minutes ago, mozy said:

Right, we've also seen situations in the past where combined CME's actually ruined the chances for auroras due to the way they were interacting with each other, we just don't know beforehand how things will pan out ^^

Yes, came here to say this. I read about this a while ago and also remember 1-2 cases with 2 cme's interacting. What is the range of possible interactions and their outcome?

28 minutes ago, mozy said:

Right, we've also seen situations in the past where combined CME's actually ruined the chances for auroras due to the way they were interacting with each other, we just don't know beforehand how things will pan out ^^

Yes exactly! I think the data will be a bit messy with shocks, sheaths and flux rope (core) all in one. 

So we should be alright because I see so many people on YouTube talking about that these storms are stronger and comparing it to the carrighton event saying that these storms will cause a total black and stuff like that I just want to know cause it seems like a whole bunch of people are saying theses things 

1 hour ago, mozy said:

Right, we've also seen situations in the past where combined CME's actually ruined the chances for auroras due to the way they were interacting with each other, we just don't know beforehand how things will pan out ^^

I like the fact that we don't know in advance how things will develop. Knowing everything in advance would be boring. All tension would disappear. Life would lose its value completely. And even those who are afraid of solar storms wouldn't be able to say, "Wow, I've survived again!"

The problem with all these claims that the electric grid is built to withstand another Carrington-like event is that these are low frequency / high impact events where we don't have good data. We know from astronomical observations that massive flares do occur on other stars and that ours is very quiet by comparison (not that I'm complaining). 

Most electric utilities will build exactly what is required of them by standards and regulation --and no more. They have a fiduciary responsibility to their ratepayers and investors not to invest more than legally required. Unfortunately, these are high impact/low frequency events that could have very bad effects on civilization. Those calculations are not in current standards and regulations. 

We have indications that massive solar flares may have occurred in history (Miyake events), though we're not certain that they were caused by solar events. Further, while we may know these events happened, we do not know what standards to build into our infrastructure. 

So, Is the grid at risk? We don't know. Current designs are for what has happened over the last century. A lot more has happened before that, and we haven't designed for those events. We typically design for 100 year event probabilities. Current designs may survive, and it may not. 

We don't know. Let that sink in. 

24 minutes ago, Sayveon Barber said:

So we should be alright because I see so many people on YouTube talking about that these storms are stronger and comparing it to the carrighton event saying that these storms will cause a total black and stuff like that I just want to know cause it seems like a whole bunch of people are saying theses things 

This is a problem with the Internet, various social networks, etc., that based on data collection, it can refer you to truly unreliable sources. And to communities where such opinions will be in the majority. Various people gather around different theories and do not leave their bubble of facts. But one community is not the whole world! A lot of people still believe in a flat Earth today. And you don't explain it to them.

1 hour ago, Christopher Shriver said:

There is a real imperative to monitoring Starlink and any similar projects in the future as they encounter the challenges of Space Weather.

I actually saw on X earlier that SpaceX had scheduled a launch of 20 Starlink satellites for tonight; sounds like awfully bad timing based on what happened the last time they did that during a geomagnetic storm. The effect of geomagnetic activity on satellites is definitely real, and I'd say such are indeed a lot more prone to Solar activity at this point than the grid is. Ensuring the integrity of satellites, including communication satellites, has certainly been a core part of the motivation to monitor space weather.

6 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

I actually saw on X earlier that SpaceX had scheduled a launch of 20 Starlink satellites for tonight; sounds like awfully bad timing based on what happened the last time they did that during a geomagnetic storm. The effect of geomagnetic activity on satellites is definitely real, and I'd say such are indeed a lot more prone to Solar activity at this point than the grid is. Ensuring the integrity of satellites, including communication satellites, has certainly been a core part of the motivation to monitor space weather.

Elon wont learn.

No for real, dont they have specialists in their team? like, i imagine satellite operators to know about space weather.

9 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

No for real, dont they have specialists in their team? like, i imagine satellite operators to know about space weather.

Heh, it's really hard to imagine that they're not accounting for it at all. Hopefully they've either accounted for it and feel confident that they can launch them anyway or they postpone it. If there's news tomorrow or the day after about Starlink satellites dropping out right after launch again I'm going to facepalm.

2 hours ago, Christopher Shriver said:

Moreover, modern infrastructure(post-WWII) is a multi-industry, self-servicing foundation of any modern civilization that is fully-equipped to make reparations and remunerations in a practical amount of time.

If conditions ever reach a point at which any integrated circuits are destroyed, no industry will meet this definition.

There's... a lot of information here about the interaction between geomagnetic storms and infrastructures, and it seems to boil down to 'we don't know.' That said, I wouldn't trust a YouTuber for accurate information given how he has overt financial incentives. And lest we forget the ranch, good f*ing god.

Edited May 10, 20241 yr by Bedreamon

8 minutes ago, Bedreamon said:

There's... a lot of information here about the interaction between geomagnetic storms and infrastructures, and it seems to boil down to 'we don't know.' That said, I wouldn't trust a YouTuber for accurate information given how he has overt financial incentives. And lest we forget the ranch, good f*ing god.

"Sun will kill us all, now pls pay 4 ranch, kthxbai!!"

1 hour ago, Philalethes said:

"Sun will kill us all, now pls pay 4 ranch, kthxbai!!"

It's baffling to be honest, and feels like the embodiment of a cult. I wish I was joking about the ranch existing, but...

Anyway, I think there's way more nuance to this discussion than 'nothing will happen' or 'everything will go to s***t.' It is a field of science after all, and science is full of variance, so grid-CME interactivity is no different.

Edited May 10, 20241 yr by Bedreamon

Plenty of people here referencing past storms that had no severe impact on the grid and mentioning them to be Carrington- event level. Carrington's was estimated ad X45 and likely in combination with another one. The biggest recorded storms quoted here were up to X16. I don't think anyone here can safely say that the grid is ready for an X45. If it makes you feel safer and more at peace then take solace and leave - but no one can give any guarantees here.

I'm surprised seeing that this 2025 apocalypse rumor has been going around since last year. Since I'm the only one in my family/friend group that pays attention to this sort of thing my phone has been buzzing pretty consistently with people asking "OH MY GOSH IS THIS REALLLL" with some youtube shorts link, and I have to keep explaining that that's not how it works. I think I'll just redirect them to this thread from now on.

41 minutes ago, Jaroslav said:

Plenty of people here referencing past storms that had no severe impact on the grid and mentioning them to be Carrington- event level. Carrington's was estimated ad X45 and likely in combination with another one. The biggest recorded storms quoted here were up to X16. I don't think anyone here can safely say that the grid is ready for an X45. If it makes you feel safer and more at peace then take solace and leave - but no one can give any guarantees here.

The Halloween Solar storm of 2003 featured an X45 flare, was earth directed.  Parts of Sweden lost power for an hour, and 12 transformers in South Africa had to be replaced.  

Thomas Edison patented the first electric fuse in 1890.  Before that telegraph operators started using reduced section conductors to protect against lightning strikes starting in 1864 (based on a recommendation by Louis Clément François Breguet.  

The point being, the Carrington event occurred in 1859, and all of the effects that were seen on the primitive electric grid was before even the most basic of circuit protections were being used.   

7 minutes ago, casualseer366 said:

The Halloween Solar storm of 2003 featured an X45 flare, was earth directed.  Parts of Sweden lost power for an hour, and 12 transformers in South Africa had to be replaced.  

Just for clarity, that largest flare occurred roughly a week after the Halloween Solar storm, and was directed away from us, so that's not the one that caused the geomagnetic activity; the strength has indeed been estimated at the same as the Carrington flare though, which would be X64 in today's terms (after the calibration by a factor of ~1.43 up).

The largest flare to cause a CME that actually hit us was also saturated at X17, which would now be X24, but it could also have been stronger. I haven't found any explicit estimates of the smaller one, but it seems like most papers on it operate under the assumption that it was only barely saturated and thus that the listed value was more or less correct, but it could perhaps have been a bit stronger (although likely not as strong as the more notable larger flare a week after).

But your point still remains; we took a good hit, and the effects on the grid weren't really that big, certainly very manageable. There's little evidence to suggest that something like a Carrington event would be way worse, but we should by no means disregard it entirely, we should of course work to ensure the grids are resilient against GICs.

7 hours ago, Philalethes said:

De hecho, vi en X antes que SpaceX había programado el lanzamiento de 20 satélites Starlink para esta noche; Suena como un momento terriblemente malo según lo que sucedió la última vez que hicieron eso durante una tormenta geomagnética . El efecto de la actividad geomagnética en los satélites es definitivamente real, y yo diría que, en este momento, son mucho más propensos a la actividad solar que la red. Garantizar la integridad de los satélites, incluidos los de comunicaciones, ha sido sin duda una parte fundamental de la motivación para vigilar el clima espacial.

Sometimes I feel that we should focus more on the protection of electrical and satellite networks if we want to live on another planet, because there will be stars that will not be like our sun that are more likely to have much stronger eruptions than ours and...

11 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

Sometimes I feel that we should focus more on the protection of electrical and satellite networks if we want to live on another planet, because there will be stars that will not be like our sun that are more likely to have much stronger eruptions than ours and...

It's certainly something to consider, although on some of those worlds there are greater things then the electrical grid to worry about when it comes to flares; many prospective Earth-like planets orbiting red dwarf stars are for example assumed to have their entire atmospheres completely blasted away by massive flares, like mentioned e.g. here:

Quote

Red dwarfs, officially known as "M dwarfs" by astronomers, are the most common stars in the Milky Way and can remain placid for long periods of time before erupting with huge "superflares." These flares have previously been measured to be 100 to 1,000 times more powerful than similar flares from the sun, with young red dwarfs particularly tumultuous.

These outbursts, as well as eruptions of scorching-hot plasma known as coronal mass ejections (CMES), can be incredibly destructive to planets orbiting red dwarfs, stripping their atmospheres and emitting enough radiation to boil away liquid water even in the so-called habitable zone around them — the region around a star in which liquid water can exist on a world's surface.

Doesn't sound like my idea of paradise, heh.

15 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

It's certainly something to consider, although on some of those worlds there are greater things then the electrical grid to worry about when it comes to flares; many prospective Earth-like planets orbiting red dwarf stars are for example assumed to have their entire atmospheres completely blasted away by massive flares, like mentioned e.g. here:

Doesn't sound like my idea of paradise, heh.

i like that play of thoughts haha.

so the storm has hit now, but infrastructure so far looks fine ? 

On 9/29/2023 at 12:20 AM, Orilander said:

And for some, they do know, but either don't care, or completely ignore it to please the masses and their need for doomsday crap. At least from what I've seen.

The problem with media is they rely too much on a kind of balance in topics.  If they discuss Climate change, they find someone without education to present opposition to the real science.

The reality is the power companies have fuses connected to the transformers.  That means a large surge in current will normally blow the fuse, but those can be replaced the same day.  Its not like we will have to make new transformers.

What we can worry a bit about is a loss of satellites, but I bet it have to be a very strong storm to have a widespread effect.

Nice article on induction currents; however the article mentioned is comparing apples and oranges.  An X20 or more flair (Carrington event) is quite different from an X4.5 event (1989).  We'll get to see how hardened the grid in Canada is over the weekend and into next week as SIX CMEs make their way to Earth (the last of which is measured as a X4.1.  The "myth" of which this discussion is about is already rated at a 10% chance every year by the US GOVERNMENT.  So myth?  I don't think so.  The Carrington event induced enough electricity into the crust to melt the transatlantic cables.  Each time there is a minor flair, the incidence of electrical fires worldwide goes up by a factor of 7.  I live in a world that is full of statistics.  I use them and extrapolate if the X flair wasn't a minor one (7x more electrical fires).  What if it was an X20?  or more?  I rate the CME danger highest on my scale of disasters that could affect my family, my community, and my world, and there is absolutely nothing to be done about it except accept the facts as I know them, and prepare for it as best our family can.  To deny is at our own peril.

45 minutes ago, Per-Einar Dahlen said:

The problem with media is they rely too much on a kind of balance in topics.  If they discuss Climate change, they find someone without education to present opposition to the real science.

The reality is the power companies have fuses connected to the transformers.  That means a large surge in current will normally blow the fuse, but those can be replaced the same day.  Its not like we will have to make new transformers.

What we can worry a bit about is a loss of satellites, but I bet it have to be a very strong storm to have a widespread effect.

thank you for being a voice of reason. very refreshing.

43 minutes ago, TawnyB said:

Nice article on induction currents; however the article mentioned is comparing apples and oranges.  An X20 or more flair (Carrington event) is quite different from an X4.5 event (1989).  We'll get to see how hardened the grid in Canada is over the weekend and into next week as SIX CMEs make their way to Earth (the last of which is measured as a X4.1.  The "myth" of which this discussion is about is already rated at a 10% chance every year by the US GOVERNMENT.  So myth?  I don't think so.  The Carrington event induced enough electricity into the crust to melt the transatlantic cables.  Each time there is a minor flair, the incidence of electrical fires worldwide goes up by a factor of 7.  I live in a world that is full of statistics.  I use them and extrapolate if the X flair wasn't a minor one (7x more electrical fires).  What if it was an X20?  or more?  I rate the CME danger highest on my scale of disasters that could affect my family, my community, and my world, and there is absolutely nothing to be done about it except accept the facts as I know them, and prepare for it as best our family can.  To deny is at our own peril.

First of all, we didn't just discuss the 1989 event, but mostly the 2003 one, since it had the largest flares, with the largest one (that missed us) having been estimated at the same intensity as the Carrington flare. The biggest one associated with a CME that did hit us in 2003 was the X24+ one (actual strength uncertain as it saturated the flare sensor, but it was likely around that strength), and there was also an X14 the day after that was part of the same storm complex. This didn't cause much problems for grids at all, with the most commonly cited reports being the grid going down in part of Sweden for an hour or so and some blown transformers in South Africa.

Secondly, that claim about electrical fires worldwide increasing by a factor of 7 from minor flares does not sound realistic at all. You're going to have to cite some actual evidence for a claim like that, and such evidence would have to be scrutinized very closely.

Thirdly, the idea that CME is somehow highest on the scale of natural disasters posing problems for humans is definitely not reflected in reality at all, as practically every other kind of natural disaster causes more issues for humans on a regular basis. Geomagnetic activity has posed very little problems for humans throughout history, including the recent history where it has affected electrical equipment. There are definitely a lot of other things it would be a lot more rational for you to focus on.

Do you guys think we'll be fine? The DST skyrocketing and stuff have me a bit jumpy. im scared we're gonna near "dangerous" situations even though all looks fine. im just scared of the length.