1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

Just wanted to pop in to let you know, that even "reputable" news outlets (even in my country) and elsewhere get space weather wrong, very ,very, VERY often.

Its a niche topic, its complicated, and so on and so forth.. i remember the most valuable SCIENTIFIC german magazine writing absolute bullcrap about space weather once.

Spaceweather-related experts working for Nasa, the Army and other sectors constantly have to correct big names and big outlets on social media.

 

Its sad, but even big Names can get stuff very wrong when not trying hard enough.

Yep, in Russia media often informs everybody even about Kp3, despite it is completely harmless, and there was an accident when in the news on the the most important channel was attached a table with G5 storm on 20th of May, when it was meant to be Kp5, not G5

I would not call the solar storms that launched in 2003 a Carrington event. From what I have read in numerous papers they think the Carrington event that happened in 1859 was much stronger than what happened in 2003.

With that said there are a few unknowns about this that we don't have answers to yet. Modern industrial countries have an electric grid that are protected against solar storms to some degree at least but many countries don't have the same modern grid. That's one thing many people forget and especially people like us who live in a very modern civilization. It's important to keep in mind that all countries in the world doesn't have the same pre-conditions for stuff like this.

It is known that solar storms can affect GPS and radio communication for example and that is why NOAA is issuing warnings for geomagnetic storms. Airlines doesn't fly as close to the poles when there are warnings issued and that usually solves that problem. So to say that nothing will happen and that no person will be affected isn't really correct. We have the science to know that some parts of our infrastructure will be affected and we do have plans on what to do if big geomagnetic storms occur.

With that said, this isn't something to worry about for us citizens as a group. Youtube channels, media and other forms of social media is blowing this up way to much to cause fear. They do it to gain views, clicks and attention. The threat for all of the world's electric grid to be wiped out is extremely slim. The odds for a Carrington class event to occur and to hit us directly are very low. The odds for it to wipe out our electric grid and cause an apocalypse is extremely low.

Fear mongering on Youtube, TikTok and other social media is very common nowadays and sadly it just gets worse and worse. Don't listen to it! Be critical and read up on the science yourself before believing anything. There are a lot of papers out there from a lot of scientist about this topic. The more you understand yourself the safer you will feel.

To say that nothing will happening is also wrong cause scientists haven't been able to study a Carrington event combined with our modern civilization yet so it's a unknown. We can only assume that nothing will happen but we truly don't know, nobody knows.

21 hours ago, Sunshine said:

I believe you have heard of the term "self fulfilling prophesy". Based on what we currently know and can estimate, the likely reason for an apocalypse is indeed what you call 'human nature'. As sad as it is. The media sensationalising everything, the people reacting to that and the least nice part of society reacting with looting and widespread general mayhem. That's a very likely scenario and quite frankly I hope to be far away from large civilisation centres at that time.

So, with any apocalypse scenario there are thousands of environments for it to play out, besides high pop centers. 

 

Let's take a look at a worst-case scenario: total fry, all electrical grids zolted so hard they can't be used without some repair. Both sides of the world affected equally, and all communication is 100% toast. So now the game of society will be played out in practical survival terms. This is the fantasy for many people, as it refocuses the large and complex world into a basic survival emergency. Things will make sense, humanity will return to simple times, and the tragedy will be told around bonfires as a legend. 

 

As others have said in this thread, even Carrington level flares happening again would not result in the worst-case scenario due to upgrades. So, in a slightly less worst-case scenario, only some grids will be fried, and only some places will be beyond repair. This might look like hurricane destruction, or an earthquake, perhaps a bigger area, but certainly not worldwide and in equal destruction. This scenario puts a large flare on the level with current natural disasters, which humanity faces fairly often enough for it not to be an apocalypse event where we return to bonfires and cannibalism. 

 

In the less disastrous scenarios, it is indistinguishable from a rolling brown out, or black out. Maybe only some equator Aurora lights or nasty sun burns. 

 

Time scale wise, we have about 5 billion more years of relative peace and quiet from the Sun. Then the Sun enters its next stage of life, we will face the possible destruction of the planet from the sun's activity. Sun - Wikipedia 

 

"The Sun does not have enough mass to explode as a supernova. Instead, when it runs out of hydrogen in the core in approximately 5 billion years, core hydrogen fusion will stop, and there will be nothing to prevent the core from contracting. The release of gravitational potential energy will cause the luminosity of the Sun to increase, ending the main sequence phase and leading the Sun to expand over the next billion years: first into a subgiant, and then into a red giant"

Edited October 1, 20232 yr by Archmonoth

32 minutes ago, Archmonoth said:

So, with any apocalypse scenario there are thousands of environments for it to play out, besides high pop centers. 

 

Let's take a look at a worst-case scenario: total fry, all electrical grids zolted so hard they can't be used without some repair. Both sides of the world affected equally, and all communication is 100% toast. So now the game of society will be played out in practical survival terms. This is the fantasy for many people, as it refocuses the large and complex world into a basic survival emergency. Things will make sense, humanity will return to simple times, and the tragedy will be told around bonfires as a legend. 

 

As others have said in this thread, even Carrington level flares happening again would not result in the worst-case scenario due to upgrades. So, in a slightly less worst-case scenario, only some grids will be fried, and only some places will be beyond repair. This might look like hurricane destruction, or an earthquake, perhaps a bigger area, but certainly not worldwide and in equal destruction. This scenario puts a large flare on the level with current natural disasters, which humanity faces fairly often enough for it not to be an apocalypse event where we return to bonfires and cannibalism. 

 

In the less disastrous scenarios, it is indistinguishable from a rolling brown out, or black out. Maybe only some equator Aurora lights or nasty sun burns. 

 

Scenario 1 is unlikely, I think. As others here point out, some countries do have taken precautions, others have not (yet) but I believe the majority has. 
Scenario 2 is more likely. And as pointed out, it might end up like in the aftermath of a large hurricane or other natural disaster. The real issue is the uneducated masses, who are likely to react to the doomsday scenarios the media is peddling perpetuously. All in all, I personally hope for some nice auroras. 

On 10/1/2023 at 7:28 PM, MinYoongi said:

Just wanted to pop in to let you know, that even "reputable" news outlets (even in my country) and elsewhere get space weather wrong, very ,very, VERY often.

Its a niche topic, its complicated, and so on and so forth.. i remember the most valuable SCIENTIFIC german magazine writing absolute bullcrap about space weather once.

Spaceweather-related experts working for Nasa, the Army and other sectors constantly have to correct big names and big outlets on social media.

 

Its sad, but even big Names can get stuff very wrong when not trying hard enough.

I must confess, when I originally read that post I did chuckle to myself at the thought of considering CNN and Washington Post reputable sources of space weather news. Oh well, at least they're usually not as bad as Hindustan Times Tech.

Edited October 4, 20232 yr by Philalethes
typo

I think it is helpful to calm any fears and also challenge your assumptions about the effects of space weather on the grid, to learn directly from the people who are working right now in the field daily on this topic. The NOAA Satellites channel video discusses the grid: NOAA

and this interview with Adam Schultz, Professor of Geophysics, discussing their work to protect the grid :

PBS

On 10/1/2023 at 5:04 PM, Archmonoth said:

So, with any apocalypse scenario there are thousands of environments for it to play out, besides high pop centers. 

 

Let's take a look at a worst-case scenario: total fry, all electrical grids zolted so hard they can't be used without some repair. Both sides of the world affected equally, and all communication is 100% toast. So now the game of society will be played out in practical survival terms. This is the fantasy for many people, as it refocuses the large and complex world into a basic survival emergency. Things will make sense, humanity will return to simple times, and the tragedy will be told around bonfires as a legend. 

 

As others have said in this thread, even Carrington level flares happening again would not result in the worst-case scenario due to upgrades. So, in a slightly less worst-case scenario, only some grids will be fried, and only some places will be beyond repair. This might look like hurricane destruction, or an earthquake, perhaps a bigger area, but certainly not worldwide and in equal destruction. This scenario puts a large flare on the level with current natural disasters, which humanity faces fairly often enough for it not to be an apocalypse event where we return to bonfires and cannibalism. 

 

In the less disastrous scenarios, it is indistinguishable from a rolling brown out, or black out. Maybe only some equator Aurora lights or nasty sun burns. 

 

Time scale wise, we have about 5 billion more years of relative peace and quiet from the Sun. Then the Sun enters its next stage of life, we will face the possible destruction of the planet from the sun's activity. Sun - Wikipedia 

 

"The Sun does not have enough mass to explode as a supernova. Instead, when it runs out of hydrogen in the core in approximately 5 billion years, core hydrogen fusion will stop, and there will be nothing to prevent the core from contracting. The release of gravitational potential energy will cause the luminosity of the Sun to increase, ending the main sequence phase and leading the Sun to expand over the next billion years: first into a subgiant, and then into a red giant"

You have a good point, but the problem is that so many people like to hype up option 1 and not even take into consideration anything close to option 2. Especially the ones who claim it'll wipe out most, if not all, life when the power grid goes out; aka the apocalyptic doomers, the tabloids and the so-called YouTube "scientists" (you know exactly who I'm talking about). And at least a few of those from what I've seen actually want it to happen.

That's the biggest reason why I made the thread to begin with. I know there are dozens or unpredictable variables when it comes to studying the sun. yet at the same time, it's said unpredictability that everyone seems to keep focusing on and how "we need to do something" or "we're all doomed and there's nothing we can do". That's where the initial fear comes from. And I wanted to know just how much truth there is to the claims about the 2025 prediction people keep bringing up.

On 10/29/2023 at 4:16 AM, Orilander said:

You have a good point, but the problem is that so many people like to hype up option 1 and not even take into consideration anything close to option 2.

Well, none of them are options to choose from, but they are scenarios.  

On 10/29/2023 at 4:16 AM, Orilander said:

Especially the ones who claim it'll wipe out most, if not all, life when the power grid goes out; aka the apocalyptic doomers, the tabloids and the so-called YouTube "scientists" (you know exactly who I'm talking about). And at least a few of those from what I've seen actually want it to happen. 

Even if people do want it to happen, the Sun doesn't care, and won't adjust its luminosity based on people wanting it to happen, so no worries. 

On 10/29/2023 at 4:16 AM, Orilander said:

I know there are dozens or unpredictable variables when it comes to studying the sun. 

Great! This site has lots of good information for understanding some of those variables. 

Edited October 30, 20231 yr by Archmonoth

Okay, so this is tangentially related to the topic of the thread, but I also heard some ramblings about something happening in 2024 about Earth's magnetic poles and how they'll finally reverse. Not sure how many members here have any knowledge regarding the topic of Earth's poles, but is there any truth to that as well, or am I falling to yet another Random nobody and their sourceless mutterings?

3 hours ago, Orilander said:

I also heard some ramblings about something happening in 2024 about Earth's magnetic poles and how they'll finally reverse.

They will say 2024, then 2025, then 2026, then 2027, then 2028, then 2029, then 2030, then 2031, th

We survived the 2003 Halloween X flares.  It's all to drum up clicks for that ad revenue. 

5 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

They will say 2024, then 2025, then 2026, then 2027, then 2028, then 2029, then 2030, then 2031, th

Problem with that, is that the person saying it says he's got a source for this, and has said, and I quote:

"Now most of you will laugh at me and thats fine but the pole shift is coming and I say before the end of June 2024".

I don't know what source he found to make this bold claim (I haven't found anything about it, even from the more questionable places), but I'm running it by this site to see if there's any kind of validity to this claim.

17 minutes ago, Orilander said:

"Now most of you will laugh at me and thats fine but the pole shift is coming and I say before the end of June 2024".

The magnetic poles are always shifting. There is a topic/thread somewhere in off topic on pole reversals.

22 hours ago, Orilander said:

Okay, so this is tangentially related to the topic of the thread, but I also heard some ramblings about something happening in 2024 about Earth's magnetic poles and how they'll finally reverse. Not sure how many members here have any knowledge regarding the topic of Earth's poles, but is there any truth to that as well, or am I falling to yet another Random nobody and their sourceless mutterings?

There's exactly zero truth to that. When I first started discussing similar on the forum, although I never thought a reversal in any of the coming years would be possible anyway, someone linked to this article that covers a lot of this in great detail.

A couple of facts to glean from this:

• The current weakening we're seeing is more likely something of a regression to the mean, i.e. a return to normal, as the field has been abnormally strong the past few thousand years; in fact, not only has the field been stronger for the past few thousand years than it's been for most of the last ~12,000 years or so, but the field is also currently stronger than it typically has been for the past ~2 million years or so.
• Even in the event that the field were to keep weakening continuously and head towards a reversal, it would take at least a few thousand years before such a reversal actually occurs; but given the above point I would personally think it unlikely for such a continuous weakening to take place, and I would guess that even if there were a reversal on the horizon somewhere the movement would be more back and forth, and take at least some tens of thousands of years.

Also worth mentioning is that various charlatans either willfully or ignorantly leave out the distinction between the magnetic poles and the geomagnetic poles, and e.g. use the movement of the magnetic poles (which is expected) as a sign of geomagnetic reversal being imminent, despite the fact that the geomagnetic poles have hardly budged at all for centuries.

On 11/14/2023 at 9:13 AM, Philalethes said:

There's exactly zero truth to that. When I first started discussing similar on the forum, although I never thought a reversal in any of the coming years would be possible anyway, someone linked to this article that covers a lot of this in great detail.

A couple of facts to glean from this:

• The current weakening we're seeing is more likely something of a regression to the mean, i.e. a return to normal, as the field has been abnormally strong the past few thousand years; in fact, not only has the field been stronger for the past few thousand years than it's been for most of the last ~12,000 years or so, but the field is also currently stronger than it typically has been for the past ~2 million years or so.
• Even in the event that the field were to keep weakening continuously and head towards a reversal, it would take at least a few thousand years before such a reversal actually occurs; but given the above point I would personally think it unlikely for such a continuous weakening to take place, and I would guess that even if there were a reversal on the horizon somewhere the movement would be more back and forth, and take at least some tens of thousands of years.

Also worth mentioning is that various charlatans either willfully or ignorantly leave out the distinction between the magnetic poles and the geomagnetic poles, and e.g. use the movement of the magnetic poles (which is expected) as a sign of geomagnetic reversal being imminent, despite the fact that the geomagnetic poles have hardly budged at all for centuries.

Thanks, man.

I always never got why there are so many people willing to ignore the difference between the two. I mean I know the reason, but what benefit does it yield when it affects them just as much as everyone else? And not just the long term either, in the short term, there's already people skeptical about both science and news sources, so what happens when the fear wears out?

Edited November 17, 20231 yr by Orilander

Ok, this is interesting, anyone have any thoughts on this, even if it's only a 10% chance?

 

Edited November 18, 20231 yr by Orilander

1 hour ago, Orilander said:

Ok, this is interesting, anyone have any thoughts on this, even if it's only a 10% chance?

 

I hear 95% of statistical percentages are made up on the spot.

4 hours ago, Philalethes said:

I hear 95% of statistical percentages are made up on the spot.

And I take it the rest of the article and the points made in it are more in line with any previous statements made in this thread? A friend of mine linked to the article, so I thought I'd share it in case there was any kind of merit to this.

Edited November 19, 20231 yr by Orilander

16 hours ago, Orilander said:

And I take it the rest of the article and the points made in it are more in line with any previous statements made in this thread? A friend of mine linked to the article, so I thought I'd share it in case there was any kind of merit to this.

See my prior post.  We survived an X40+ flare in Oct 2003.   The internet lived, satellite TV lived, astronauts on the ISS lived.   It's all BS to drum up clicks for ad revenue.  

Edited November 19, 20231 yr by kansasaurorachaser

4 minutes ago, kansasaurorachaser said:

See my prior post.  We survived an X40+ flare in Oct 2003.   The internet lived, satellite TV lived, astronauts on the ISS lived.   It's all BS to drum up clicks for ad revenue.  

X28+ was not aimed at Earth. we survived both X17 and X10, including the fact, that most of their CMEs passed below us

Edited November 19, 20231 yr by tniickck

I wish wikipedia wasn't open to public editing. 

15 minutes ago, tniickck said:

X28+ was not aimed at Earth. we survived both X17 and X10, including the fact, that most of their CMEs passed below us

2 sources claiming to state the x45 reading but incorrect.   my mistake

 

34 minutes ago, kansasaurorachaser said:

I wish wikipedia wasn't open to public editing. 

2 sources claiming to state the x45 reading but incorrect.   my mistake

 

Amen!!  Anything above X-17 was subjected to careful estimations by experts in the field, as I understand it. I’m willing to stand corrected on this of course. At least we only have one log scale to deal with.  🤣🤣  I believe X-28 to be the currently accepted figure. From my favorite AR 10486. 

Edited November 19, 20231 yr by hamateur 1953

1 hour ago, tniickck said:

X28+ was not aimed at Earth. we survived both X17 and X10, including the fact, that most of their CMEs passed below us

50 minutes ago, kansasaurorachaser said:

I wish wikipedia wasn't open to public editing. 

2 sources claiming to state the x45 reading but incorrect.   my mistake

20 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Amen!!  Anything above X-17 was subjected to careful estimations by experts in the field, as I understand it. I’m willing to stand corrected on this of course. At least we only have one log scale to deal with.  🤣🤣  I believe X-28 to be the currently accepted figure. From my favorite AR 10486. 

I think the X28 is still considered to be estimated at really having been ~X45, but tniickck's point was more that it wasn't that one that hit us; I believe that's correct, but I'm not entirely sure, perhaps someone else can weigh in.

Zojuist, Philalethes zei:

I think the X28 is still considered to be estimated at really having been ~X45, but tniickck's point was more that it wasn't that one that hit us; I believe that's correct, but I'm not entirely sure, perhaps someone else can weigh in.

The X28 happened when that huge region was at the limb. Even at the limb the very major CME flank did hit Earth.

the X17 was a direct full hit, the region was around center disk when that one happened.

See our summary that we’ve made: 

 

a bit off-topic question, but is the current maximum of solar flare measurement still X17? or newer GOES satellites have better equipment?