Another bump up at L1

It's early in to it, but definitely something coming whether it be just charged particles or the storm

9 minutes ago, Cokelley said:

Otro aumento en L1

Es pronto, pero definitivamente algo está por venir, ya sean partículas cargadas o la tormenta.

increased epam, means something is coming eh

Three hours and 40 minutes till twilight for down here.

Sky cover at most 4% for the night.

At the very least the GoPro needs to go out if things keep up.

 

Any guesses / estimates  *if* anything happens if it's gonna last a while, and if we're getting anything more than about KP4?

I need about KP 6 for the cameras to catch anything....

 

Always fun to see aurora but this one was a lot weaker than the previous events we have had this "season". Fingers crossed for more active flares in the upcoming days/weeks! This was taken about one hour ago. 

 

Edited September 25, 20241 yr by northerner

2 hours ago, Cokelley said:

Another bump up at L1

It's early in to it, but definitely something coming whether it be just charged particles or the storm

It's the CME making a stairway to avoid Earth by stepping over us 🥲

Ugh, I have to be up in the morning, I guess I'm pulling an all nighter if they are promising early lol

3 hours ago, northerner said:

Always fun to see aurora but this one was a lot weaker than the previous events we have had this "season". Fingers crossed for more active flares in the upcoming days/weeks! This was taken about one hour ago. 

 

Cool that you’re in Sweden.  Hopefully up near Kiruna.  Envious over here!  😇

I looked at a few live streams on youtube a couple of hours ago; Finland was all cloudy, but Iceland had a VERY nice Aurora show going on.

Sitting in Minnesota rn watching some reasonably bright aurora on the horizon 🙂 I'm getting the light pillar variety of lights tonight it seems.

Clearer skies i couldn't ask for no moon atm and I think there's a meteor shower rn just based on the number of meteorites I've seen so far

The solar wind velocities have dropped off enough that a shock arrival still might be possible. The problem is, we don't know if the CME is still coming or if it's remains have already passed by us.

2 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

The solar wind velocities have dropped off enough that a shock arrival still might be possible. The problem is, we don't know if the CME is still coming or if it's remains have already passed by us.

I guess I would like to ask @Jesterface23 an open question here with regards to shock arrivals at L1 vs terrestrial. Is a shock arrival at L1 typically registered on our magnetometers later?  

2 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

The solar wind velocities have dropped off enough that a shock arrival still might be possible. The problem is, we don't know if the CME is still coming or if it's remains have already passed by us.

I think it's most likely been deflected, eroded, or it was a near miss all along. Since we're at 4ish days since the eruption we should have seen some form of signature. I'm not very savvy when it comes to calculating CME travel times yet, but it looked like the portion that was possibly Earth directed was traveling between 500-700 km/s. I also referenced CACTUS velocity distribution to find average speeds. If we go with the lowest speed it basically has 12 hours left to arrive. Is my thought process kinda headed towards the right direction? 

Edited September 26, 20241 yr by Parabolic
Grammar

I think, that the CME is now passing us by East. The EPAM has the signature of sharper rise and then very gradual decline, and I have observed that this happens when the CME misses us, just by a little bit.

Even if we are going to get arrival, it will be very weak, barely noticable as the speeds would then need to be around 350 km/s which is even lower than the current background speeds. 

I guess y’all answered my question directed at @Jesterface23 thanks!  Makes sense in context.  Mike 

It has been tough to read Epam from ACE these past couple of weeks! There have been so many energetic particle disturbances almost non stop, the baseline has become tough to distinguish (crying emoji)

Edited September 26, 20241 yr by Cokelley

I'm wondering if we possibly missed a filament eruption?

I have a question, is the EPAM impact a CME impact or what is it? And we are 500 kilometers per second and EPAM is rising 

Are you saying I need to run outside and stick my GoPro on a tripod, just in case? 😮 

Edited September 30, 20241 yr by NightSky

The density just took a giant leap up, as did the EPAMp?

The big spikes are just bad data.

It looks like there was a larger solar wind transition with a CH HSS at around /29 15:00Z. There is some CME that is/was somewhere upstream of the CH HSS causing the EPAMp to rise.

Just now, Jesterface23 said:

The big spikes are just bad data

 

I suspected that, but I'll let y'all make that call

18 hours ago, Cokelley said:

I'm wondering if we possibly missed a filament eruption?

It could be a mistake, but I think a CME is on the way though!

56 minutes ago, Zhe Yu said:

It could be a mistake, but I think a CME is on the way though!

Awesome ! I used to be able to tell if a cme was arriving by looking at Epam but I have been striking out lately !

Looks like we’re getting some CH influence. Might see some auroral substorms down to the US/canada border if the predominantly southward BZ sticks around 

Yep. The temperatures are very low, so we are in the CIR of a CH. We'll still be waiting for the CH HSS.