Active Region 1890 - (X3.3, X1.1 & X1.1)

[Vancanneyt Sander]

SpaceWeatherLive Report

Analysis of the Solar Activity November 4th 2013 23h UTC

 

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Analysis of the past 24h

Solar activity was low today with only minor C-class flares from dying region 1884 and the huge sunspot cluster 1890 which rotated onto the disk a few days ago.

From it's first appearance, the region looked very huge but was covered with faculae but showed signs of a bit magnetically good mix for a minor M-class solar flare but it only produced a C9.9 flare yesterday, almost reaching M-class.

This is the region as it was this morning:

 

 

A very large leader spots and some smaller spots and a crumbled penumbral area. Throughout the day this region evolved very rapidly and now it's better in sight we can finally see the magnetic structure and that's when it gets interesting.

Let's look at the visual part of the region. The leader spot hasn't changed much but in the northeastern part it developed new spots. Also centrally, closer to the big follower spot there was some development. But the most interesting changes are noted in the large follower spot (the eastern spot cluster of the region). It's penumbral area almost doubled in size and it created many new spots, including two clear delta spots visible and new ones forming. The delta spot in the most eastern part of that cluster is the strongest and is very compact with the spots of opposite polarity. Due to the location of the region we could not clearly see yet if the smaller spots, that are close to the strong delta spot, are also delta spots; this will be more clear tomorrow.

 

What can we expect in the upcoming 24h?

Due to the fast development and strong delta spot in the eastern part, M-class flares are a growing threat with also a risk for an X-class event.

 

M-class flare probability: 50% chance

X-class flare probability: 10% chance

[Vancanneyt Sander]

SpaceWeatherLive Report

Analysis of the Solar Activity November 5th 2013 update 15h30 UTC

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Analysis of the past 12h

Like we mentioned in our hot update of last night, sunspot region 1890 had the capability of producing strong flares. And it did! This morning the region produced an impulsive M2.5 flare with an associated non Earth directed CME. A very minor enhancement in the primary protons where also observed after the flare.

 

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https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=541387935948131

The region is stable and did not change much, the two strongest delta spots are still there with the strongest one being in the trailing spot section in the eastern part of the region. This spot is so close to the spot with opposite polarity making it compact and dangerous for more M-class flares and also a slight chance for an X-class flare.

 

UPDATE: 18:30 UTC

Active Region 1890 just produced it's second impulsive M-class solar flare of the day. This one peaked at 18:13 UTC with a maximum of exactly M1.00. This flare likely did not produce a CME because of the flare it's impulsive nature. Active Region 1890 still has it's two delta spots with the most eastern one being very large and closly packed to the spot with opposite polarity. More M-class solar flares are likely and there remains a slight chance for an X-class solar flare.

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[Vancanneyt Sander]

SpaceWeatherLive Report

Analysis of the Solar Activity November 5th 2013 update 23h UTC

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Solar activity was at high levels with a major X3.39 impulsive solar flare

 

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It was very an impulsive event, it is likely not associated with a CME but due to the strength it is possible. We await further imagery to confirm.

If we look at the largest delta spot in the eastern trailing section we notice that it had broken apart but got some company in the neighborhood with another delta spot and south of the leaderspot there is also a tiny delta spot visible. The region retains stable and continues to grow new spots.

 

What can we expect in the next 24h?

This region remains complex enough to produce further M-class flares and a growing chance for X-class flares.

 

M-class flare probability: 70% chance

X-class flare probability: 20% chance

 

UPDATE 07:00 UTC NOVEMBER 6TH:

The flare produced a small CME which is heading south of the ecliptic. No geomagnetic disturbances are to be expected from it.

[Marcel de Bont]

SpaceWeatherLive Report

Analysis of the Solar Activity November 5th 2013 UPDATE 14:15 UTC

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Analysis of the past 12h

Active Region 1890 was rather quiet with only an occasional C-class flare until 13:46 UTC today when it produced an impulsive M3.8 solar flare. Solar plasma can be seen leaving the blast site on SDO/AIA 304A imagery. A Coronal Mass Ejection is likely but Active Region 1890 is still not in a great position for an Earth-directed CME. We have to wait for LASCO and STEREO imagery to confirm if there was a CME and what trajectory it will have.

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UPDATE 15:45 UTC - Analysis of the regions magnetic complexity

Looking at the latest imagery available of the active region, it shows signs of decay with many disappearing trailer spots and diminishing spots. It still retains a strong delta spot in the eastern trailing part and is the only delta spot in the region. As a result the x-ray backgroundflux dropped to B9 and that is a second indication that the region is in decay. M-flares are still possible as long as it keeps it's delta spot.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

SpaceWeatherLive Report

Analysis of the Solar Activity November 7th 2013

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Analysis of the past 24h

It is once again an active day on the Sun with two M-class flares at the time of writing. An M2.3 and an M2.4 from region 1890. Yesterday in the evening we also saw an M1 flare from a departing region on the limb. The M-flare from that region is not Earth directed according to the LASCO imagery but yet an enhancement was seen in the primary >10Mev protons but remained below storm threshold and declined during the day to normal levels. Another CME was visible on the LASCO imagery but that was a backside event and is not linked to the M-class flares of today.

 

The M2.4 solar flare from this afternoon:

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Analysis of the Active Region 1890

Yesterday it showed signs of decay in it's trailing spots and losing delta spots and a weaker delta structure in the eastern trailing part opt the complex. In the evening a stabilization was noted and that the region gets a bit more closer together and with also some new spots that tried to get through. Today we can identify two delta spots in the trailing part of the region. Those delta spots are not so compact with it's opponent polarity but still is complex enough for low M-class flares in the next 24h.

 

As always we keep analyzing this region and update if necessary.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

SpaceWeatherLive Report

Analysis of the Solar Activity November 8th 2013

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An impulsive X1.12 flare occurred from region 1890, imagery is not yet available to determine if there was an accompanied CME. We will bring updates later today when more imagery is available.

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Meanwhile the region lost an other delta spot, now holding only one in the eastern trailing part of the region. It's delta structure got somewhat stronger and closer to the spots of opposite polarity. This compact delta structure makes the risk for strong flares big and as long as it retains it strength we might see another strong flare later today.

The region is now almost center disk and in geoeffective position for Earth directed CME's.

 

SpaceWeatherLive Update

November 8th 2013 - 11:30 UTC

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Looking at the latest LASCO imagery the bulk of the CME is heading south of the ecliptic but it does posses a very slight Earth directed component. This is however not enough to cause any kind of geomagnetic disturbance as it was a slow, faint and very weak part. EPAM also didn't react to the flare so this again indicates that the CME was not impressive. No geomagnetic disturbances are to be expected from this CME. NASA has updated their solar wind model and this also shows a very minor impact.

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M2.3 solar flare Active Region 1891

A bit of a surprise this morning was an impulsive M2.3 flare from region 1891. It had a small delta spot but stayed less active with only minor C-class flares. We await data to confirm if there was a CME associated with this event.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

SpaceWeatherLive Update

November 10th 2013 - 09:30 UTC

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Solar activity was low yesterday but the background flux was gaining some strength with a new active region that's emerging on the eastern limb. Sunspot region 1890 became a lot more quiet and only produced minor C-class flares. The region maintained it's delta structure in the eastern part of the sunspot region so it was still capable of producing a strong event but we had to wait until this morning before this happened.

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An impulsive X1.13 flare erupted from region 1890, it was again a very short event but looking at the SDO data we see some ejecta leaving but it's once again directed south of the ecliptic. Stereo imagery are not complete and also LASCO has not got any data to provide a CME analysis at this point. From the first Stereo imagery there might be an Earthward component but it will be probably be very faint.

We will provide further updates on the CME analysis here in this topic.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

SpaceWeatherLive CME Update

November 10th 2013 - 20:45 UTC

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Now LASCO imagery is complete, it's time to analyse the imagery. It was already clear on the SDO imagery that the bulk of the CME would be directed southwest of the ecliptic. At the same time of the X1, on the far side, was also an eruption and that produced also a CME. So when you look at the imagery you'll see 2 CME's leaving the Sun.

The CME of the X1 is headed southwest of the ecliptic and is very faint. The CME is not particular a partial halo event, it has only the capability of providing a glancing blow but nothing more than that. The impact will be so weak that we might not even notice it. This is also confirmed with EPAM readings that didn't change throughout the day indicating that there is practically nothing on it's way to Earth.

Despite other models who gave a bigger impact, they where modelled when 80% of the imagery was incomplete and thus gave incorrect models. We are confident in our prediction and thus not agree with models like NASA put out.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

SpaceWeatherLive Active Region Update

November 11th 2013 - 12:00 UTC

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A quick little update on region 1890. It's decay phase still continues and losing more and more spots. It's magnetic delta structure still remains and was able to add a new little delta spot next to it. But as further decay takes place, the chances for strong flares grow smaller. This region's strongest solar flare today was an C7 flare.

Update 14h00

Region 1890 produced it's first long duration flare, peaking at C4.85. Although it was not big, it's worth mentioning it, this event will likely have an associated CME with it. We await further imagery from STEREO and LASCO to give deeper analysis.

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[Guest]

this is one I ll be studing data on for weeks!! bizzare little fellow start to finish ....almost

[Vancanneyt Sander]

this is one I ll be studing data on for weeks!! bizzare little fellow start to finish ....almost

Not that bizar in my eyes. Strongest flares occurred when the region's delta configuration was at its strongest, but due to the lack of real pressure on the delta spot it failed to produce long duration events. If the delta structure was squashed by main polarity spots it would be a different kind of story. But as with all regions, it developed continuously and re-analysis was needed to see how magnetically complex it stil was, only to see it was weakening.

If you have specific questions, don't hesitate to ask them ;-)

 

Meanwhile another impulsive C5 flare. The delta spot weakened a bit and lost it's second small delta spot too. That's probably the reason it only produces C-flares anymore.

[Guest]

would appearim behind slightly friend ... I see no reason to doubt.its develpmentaly common sense i suppose ... its a more face value observation .I am aware that no 2 groups are alike ..in the brief snapshots I get of this site in a day my observation lack the dedication that u guys so magnificent a cheive . I noticed though the in particular the mid strength m flares apeard .....whats best words here.................. powerfully un productive???

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Thanks for your donation Andy! We appreciate this very much.

Looking at region 1890, the leader spot is starting to fall apart and further decay is noted. It still has it's delta spot in the trailing part of the region but due to the lack of strength it won't produce much. Although an impulsive M-class flare can't be ruled out.

[Guest diego]

Hey guys, just have a question about AR11890, why this region after to produce a flare, keep many times something like a magnetic loop that is seen very illuminated on SDO/AIA 94 pics for more than an hour?, I never saw before that kind of phenomena, could somebody give me a short explaination?

 

Thanks in advance 

[Vancanneyt Sander]

It's a normal phenomenon that we call magnetic reconnection. With a strong flare, magnetic field lines break and the material that flows along these magnetic field lines gets thrown into space (Coronal Mass Ejection). Because the field lines broke during the flare, another process comes in that is called magnetic reconnection where the field restores itself and reconnects and gives in the images a brighter view on reforming magnetic loops.

An informative movie on YouTube about the phenomenon.