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Upper Middle Latitude Watch October 30-31

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SpaceWeatherLive Report

Upper Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH - October 28th and 29th 2013

Extended watch - See latest post

Solar Activity and Geophysical Activity Summary

In the past days we have seen many solar flares and multiple CMEs that were blasted into space by multiple regions. Read more about region 1882 or region 1875 for the updates and analysis of the events. In the topic of 1882 we have added an updated look on the active regions.

Synopsis Auroral Activity chances

The reason for creating this discussion is to give you the facts and figures about the expected CME arrivals. The chances are NOT high for mid-latitude reasons, we only expect a very short period that can expand the auroral oval to a bit lower latitudes and thus issue a small upper mid-latitude auroral activity WATCH.

Let's get over to some data and analysis.


In the LASCO imagery we could determine three Earth directed coronal mass ejections that are heading partially towards Earth. The first one is from the X2 flare which gave a pretty bright CME that was surprisingly asymmetrical full halo. This will be the first one to arrive around midday october 28th and might give it the best impact and best chances.

Later, early on October 29th we can expect an other transient flow from two other CME's (one of the M3 flare from region 1882), this might produce an uptake in the activity.


The IMF will most probably be directed northward and won't produce a minor storm. Only if there is a period of southward directed IMF there is a chance for a G1 minor storm conditions with aurora for the High latitudes. Only if favorable conditions occur, upper mid-latitudes might get some faint display at max or just photographic aurora.

As this topic is a WATCH for upper mid-latitude, it means that chances are low. Chances might increase once the CME arrives and only then we can say what the chances will be. So please follow this topic and the updates on the social media channels like Facebook and Google+ as well as our live alerts on Twitter.

Low latitude and Lower Middle Latitudes: 0% chance

Upper Middle Latitudes: 20% chance

High Latitudes: 40% chance

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SpaceWeatherLive Report

Upper Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Extended WATCH - October 30-31 2013



Solar Activity and Geophysical Activity Summary

Today was again a very productive day on the Sun with yet another Earth directed CME that was launched from region 1882. It was a combined M2/M4 event. Details and analysis you can read on this topic.

Region 1875 did produce CME's as well but due to it's location near the limb, these are not Earth directed, you can read the updates in this topic.


Synopsis Auroral Activity chances

First of all, for today, October 28th, the watch is downgraded. EPAM levels are still above event levels but we did not see any impact. 



An impact is stil expected from multiple CME's, see our first post of this watch, but the later they arrive, the lesser the impact will be. We expected two more arrivals early October 29, the thinking now is that the CME's maybe merged on it's way and that we can see a combined impact that can be weaker than anticipated and thus the chances for a G1 storm is low. Much will depend on the data when it's arrived and only then we'll now if there is a chance.


Until there the bad news. The good news is that there is a full halo CME on it's way! AT the time of writing, STEREO data is incomplete as well as LASCO data so it's difficult to give a speed estimation, based on the first images a speed of 700km/sec is likely. First indications shows an impact no earlier than midday October 30th. Because it was a big event on the sun, it might give a descent shock with possible unsettled conditions with a G1 minor geomagnetic storm WATCH. High latitude observers might get some show.

For the upper middle latitudes, chances are rather low. It was not a very bright CME as we saw in the first images. Much will depend on the conditions at arrival time.


Low latitude and Lower Middle Latitudes: 0% chance

Upper Middle Latitudes: 20% chance

High Latitudes: 40% chance

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An update on the actual situation. A first shock has been observed at ACE satellite and has yet to arrive at Earth. Speed jumped with 50km/sec to 360km/sec, which is not much but this was expected. The strength of the IMF bumped to 10nT and the direction of the IMF is southward with at the moment up to moderate southward Bz. A sudden impulse has yet to be observed but can be expected any minute now. 

If the southward direction of the IMF stays like this, high latitude skywatchers may look out for some aurorae. 

More impacts will probably follow and can enhance conditions. So keep a look on our website and the data!

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