Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity October 25th 2013 Analysis of the past 7h This new region rotated onto the disk today, it's stil very close to the limb to get a clear view on it's magnetic structure but we can already see that the leader spot has some complexity within with some polarity mixing. The leader spot is surrounded by faculae which isn't a very good sign (region in decay). http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-79429500-1382677438.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-11565100-1382677438.jpg The sunspot region was responsible for multiple C-class flares in the past days on the limb and it produced this morning an impulsive M-class flare (M2.99). It was a short lived event so the chance for an associated CME is small and if there was a CME, due to the location it won't be Earth directed. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-49170600-1382677715.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-04245400-1382677708.png Keep following us for updates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Roan123 Posted October 25, 2013 Share Posted October 25, 2013 And there is the X-flare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity October 25th 2013 UPDATE 10h15 UTC A major solar flare occurred this morning, peaking at X1.74 from region 1882. It was clear this morning that the region had some magnetic complexity but as we told due to it's location we can't see the magnetic layout very clear. In the latest imagery it looks like a delta structure is visible in the northern part of the leader spot. It's safe to say that this region is magnetically complex and can produce a major flare. Just moments ago it released a minor M1.05 flare in the declining phase of the X1 and yet another M-flare peaking at M1.08. X1.7: Full disk with 1882 highlighted: LASCO imagery and Stereo indicate a big CME that was associated with this event: At first sight and due to it's location still close to the limb, it is NOT Earth directed. Later today, when more images come available we'll review the total CME distribution. Keep following us for more updates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity October 25th 2013 UPDATE 16h00 UTC Just moments ago region 1882 produced it's second X-class flare! It was already quiet unrestfull in the region with short C-class flares and background flux in lower C levels and shortly after a C7 flare it exploded to an X2.13! Looking back at the first X-class flare. The CME was clearly visible in STEREO imagery and as of the first LASCO images available we can already tell the bulk of the CME is headed towards the southeast of the ecliptic. EPAM electron levels began to slowly rise in the last hours. Looking at latest LASCO imagery it has no Earthward component. Now that the region turned more into view we can get a glimpse of the magnetic structure. In the norther part of the region multiple delta spots are visible and are very close to the other spots with the opposite polarity making it very complex. Also in the southeastern part of the region an area of opposite flux is visible. We can conclude that this region is magnetically very complex and that further major flares are expected, we hereby upgrade the chances: M-class flare probability: 70% chance X-class flare probability: 30% chance UPDATE 16:00 UTC A CME is now visible in LASCO imagery indicating a fast coronal mass ejection. Just like the previous CME of the X1 flare most of the ejecta is directed southeast of the ecliptic and will probably not be Earth directed. UPDATE 16:30 UTC Latest LASCO imagery does indicate an assymetrical full halo CME, a proton event is also possible. As you see in the image below there is a clear Earthward component. A glancing blow looks to be in the offering. UPDATE 17:15 UTC A moderate M1.3 solar flare just occurred from region 1882, this is the 4th M-class flare from today. With this flare it's very clear that the sunspot region is very complex so we can expect a lot more! On our Facebook and Google+ pages we have a video of the two X-class solar flares: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=535987396488185&set=vb.133686703412514 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 25, 2013 Author Share Posted October 25, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity October 25th 2013 UPDATE 23h20 UTC October 25th may go in history as one of the most active days in solar cycle 24. We saw 2 X-class flares, 5 M-class flares and multiple C-class flares. All M and X-class flares where produced by region 1882 which saw it's first appearance on the solar disk two days before. Analysis of the region Region 1882 is now finally in a better position to get a better look at it's magnetic complexity. It's still a bit hard to see it all but there are at least two large delta spots in the northern part of the leader spot and one in the southern part. Compared to earlier imagery of SDO the region is stable and exhibits enough magnetic complexity to produce further major flares. CME analysis The M2.9 flare from this morning produced a faint CME but is not Earth directed. The X1.7 flare produced a more strong CME but like the M2.9 flare it is not Earth directed and most of the ejecta is headed southeast of the ecliptic. The CME had a speed of approximately 1000km/sec. The X2.8 flare had a very fast and bright CME associated with it and was visible as an asymmetrical full halo CME. This means a glancing blow is possible. Most of the ejecta is headed to the southeast but still a somewhat bright part is headed towards the Earth. The CME lifted off with a speed of approximately 1600km/sec, an impact can be expected on October 28th Auroral activity chances A High latitude auroral activity WATCH is in effect on October 28th due to the arrival of the X2.8 CME, arrival time will be around noon (+ and - 6 hours impact window). K-indices can climb as high as 5 when favorable conditions occure. The predicted direction of the IMF will be North so this may limit the real storm chances. There are currently NO watches in effect for mid latitude skywatchers. What can we expect in the next 24h? Due to the very complex region 1882 might produce further major flares. Also the chances for a solar radiation storm are growing stronger. M-class flare probability: 70% chance X-class flare probability: 30% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 26, 2013 Author Share Posted October 26, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity October 26th 2013 UPDATE 10:00 UTC Solar activity is at moderate levels, multiple C-class flares where detected, most from region 1882 and a couple of 1875. This morning around 6h UTC a M2.3 flare erupted from 1882: http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-09772500-1382781254.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-76714000-1382781254.png A small and faint CME is associated with this event but will not be geoeffective. Just moments ago two M-flares occurred one from region 1882 and one from region 1875. The first M-flare (M1.28) came from region 1875, the second immediately after the M1.28 came from region 1882 peaking at M1.52. Because of the minor and impulsive nature of these events, no CME will be associated with it. Region 1882 analysis http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-21100500-1382781668.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-67748200-1382781668.jpg Now it gets better into view, we can now tell for sure there are two large delta spots in the northern part of the sunspot region. It hasn't changed much in the last 12h and remains the most complex region on the disk and can still produce major flares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 26, 2013 Author Share Posted October 26, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity October 26th 2013 UPDATE 11:20 UTC A new M-class flare occurred just moments ago from region 1882 and a smaller flare from a new region that's on the eastern limb. Yet an other new and active region is rotating onto the disk. The C-flare from the new region was obscured by the flare from 1882 which was a bit stronger peaking at M1.82. AIA 304 images indicate a large blob of plasma that's getting ejected, it's likely that this might produce a CME; due to the location of the new region it will not be Earth directed. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-20150100-1382786417.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-88949500-1382786417.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 28, 2013 Author Share Posted October 28, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive ReportAnalysis of the Solar Activity October 27th 2013due to the SDO website that is offline the whole day we can't get high resolution images to give you a deep analysis of the regions. We hope it gets online soon so we can give you a deep analysis. For this update we utilized SOHO MDI images to get a glimpse.Region summarySunspot 1882 was quiet today with no remarkable events, only low level C-class flares from this region where detected. Region 1882 still has still a delta spot in the norther part of the region so it would be capable of producing an other M-class event with A slight chance for an X-class event.New region 1884, which produced an M-class solar flare today, is still too close to the limb to see detail, but from first sight it does not look impressive so we don't think this region will produce an other big event. According to the NOAA it should have a delta configuration with a large and strong delta spot in the trailing spots of the region. The region has now got an beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.1875 is getting close to the limb, it's difficult to see much with the SOHO imagery and could not determine it's potential. It did however produce a small M-class flare. What can we expect in the next 24h?Because there are several active regions on the visible solar disk with the capability of producing M-class flares, we keep the chances as high as yesterday.M-class flare probability: 70% chanceX-class flare probability: 30% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 28, 2013 Author Share Posted October 28, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity October 27th 2013 SDO imagery is back so lets take a look at region 1882 and 1884. Both regions remain very calm with low and medium level C-class flares but didn't produce a major event yet. When we take a look at region 1882 it's stable with little change throughout the period. It retains it's very strong delta structure in the northeastern part of the complex and gained a new delta spot just north of it. Also of note that there is a sign of an inversion line that's in the middle of the eastern complex, yet it's still not strong. If this gets stronger, magnetic shear will be growing with the possibility of a major flare. 1884 gained some spots in the trailing section of the region. Although NOAA says it's a beta-gamma-delta region, no evident delta spots are visible. We keep this region as a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 28, 2013 Author Share Posted October 28, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity October 28th 2013 Update 15:15 UTC As detailed in our earlier report, region 1882 is very complex and had enough complexity for a major flare. After a long time of quiet times in this region it got to an abrupt end with an M2.76 flare. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-38597000-1382973082.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-99546300-1382973102.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-71330800-1382973174.jpg Looking at the first SDO images, it looks like there is ejecta visible. Immediately after the M2, the magnetically tangled region produced an M4.42 flare: http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-82136000-1382973630.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-24821500-1382973860.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-14670400-1382973631.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-64241200-1382973973.jpg It is clear that it will have an associated CME but we will wait until LASCO and STEREO is available. The chance that it enhances a proton event is a possibility. Update 16:13 UTC: From the latest LASCO imagery it looks like a halo CME is forming, this is linked to the M4 eruption from moments ago. Update 17:00 UTC: A clear asymetrical full halo CME is now visible in LASCO. The CME will certainly have an Earth-directed component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 28, 2013 Author Share Posted October 28, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity October 28th 2013 Update 22:00 UTC Analysis of active region 1882 The region underwent big changes today. It lost spots and gained some new but the region gradually lost penumbral area and it's biggest delta spot is getting smaller in the northern part. The delta spot in the south-central part remains but is very small. As long as the magnetic delta structures remain, there is still a chance for M-class events. Analysis of active region 1884 The region showed penumbral growth and gained more spots in the trailing part of the region, it's in that particular part that a delta spot is forming, still loosely connected with a spot of the other polarity. If the development continues, it might produce a low level M-class event. What can we expect in the next 24h? Solar activity will be at high levels, mainly from departing region 1875. Region 1882 and 1884 have lower chances in producing a strong flare (20% for an M-class event). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 29, 2013 Author Share Posted October 29, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the active region 1884 October 30th 2013 Can sunspot region 1884 give us a good follow up for region 1875. The region developed further and gained spots and penumbral area. In the trailing spots there are now two small delta spots visible. Around the leader spot a large new penumbral structure had developed through the day and contains two big spots of opposite polarity but these are not delta spots yet as the penumbral area of negative polarity is not yet full connected with the leader spot. If it does, it would be magnetically complex enough for M-class flares. Region 1882 has gotten magnetically less complex and poses no threat for flares. What can we expect in the next 24h? M-class flare is possible with slight chance for an X-class flare M-class flare probability: 30% chance X-class flare probability: 5% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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