Can you trust forecasting Geomagnetic Storm for a month in advance ?

[oemSpace]

Geomagnetic storm is mainly caused by solar winds, but solar winds take average 3~6 days to hit the Earth, so the forecast within 7 days will be more reliable.  However, referring to following image, the forecase for Geomagnetic storm is up to a month, I just don't get any idea on how they perform forecase without any fact (solar winds).

 

Does anyone have any suggestions?

 

Thanks in advance for any suggestions

 

[Marcel de Bont]

Yes and no, but mainly no. Some solar phenomena like Coronal Holes rotate in a geo-effective position every 28 days, and affect Earth each 28 days. These can be forecast but that is not an exact science: a CH can close or a new one can form. Of course, solar flares and CMEs can not be predicted so you could say it is pointless to predict space weather more then a few days in advance. These long term forecasts are not so accurate.

[oemSpace]

When CME is generated and goes toward Earth's direction, now we get the fact in 2-6 days in advance, but how can we confirm to issue Geomagnetic Storm Warning? since solar winds just like a smoke, which can go (above, below, left, right) the Earth without touching Ionospheric layer.

 

Do you have any suggestions?

 

Thanks you very much for any suggestions :>

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Read our article in the help section of the website How do we know if a CME is Earth directed and when it's going to arrive, that'll contain your answer.

[oemSpace]

I think the following 2 approaches are easy for beginner to confirm Geomagnetic Storm Warning:

• Using the proton flux monitor is very fast if a Solar radiation storm is triggered and, in a less accurate way, if there is a CME directed to Earth.

Does it measure on Earth or ACE satellite?

 

 

• In the ACE satellite, Using the EPAM Plot shows a fast rise of the electrons which marks the start of the flare. The proton plot in the plot also shows a steady rise. This indicates that a part of the CME is Earth directed.

Is there any requirement for the minimum levels of Electrons/cm2?
 

If solar protons is above 10MeV and electrons are increasing more than 10 times at least within 24 hr, then Geomagnetic Storm Warning will be confirmed to hit the Earth. 

 

Does anyone have any suggestions on whether above assumption is acceptable or not?

 

Thanks everyone very much for any suggestions :>
 

[oemSpace]

Yes and no, but mainly no. Some solar phenomena like Coronal Holes rotate in a geo-effective position every 28 days, and affect Earth each 28 days. These can be forecast but that is not an exact science: a CH can close or a new one can form. Of course, solar flares and CMEs can not be predicted so you could say it is pointless to predict space weather more then a few days in advance. These long term forecasts are not so accurate.

 

Referring to following image, Coronal Holes rotate in a geo-effective position every 28 days, which will continue give out plasma from the Sun, so it can be forecast every 28 days, but CME can only be forecast within 2-7 days, as shown on below image, will it be corrected conclusion?

 

Does anyone have any suggestions?

 

Thanks everyone very much for any suggestions

 

 

[Vancanneyt Sander]

CH can be predicted, CME's can't be predicted, end of story ;-)

[oemSpace]

Thanks everyone very much for any suggestions

[oemSpace]

 

 

• In the ACE satellite, Using the EPAM Plot shows a fast rise of the electrons which marks the start of the flare. The proton plot in the plot also shows a steady rise. This indicates that a part of the CME is Earth directed.

Is there any requirement for the minimum levels of Electrons/cm2?

 

If solar protons is above 10MeV and electrons are increasing more than 10 times at least within 24 hr, then Geomagnetic Storm Warning will be confirmed to hit the Earth. 

 

 

 It is the perfect moment to discuss CME  , which just pass the Earth, and Proton and electron starts declining, but the rising speed of electron is not very outstanding, so it is very difficult to confirm any warning signal of Geomagnetic Storm Warning.

 

Furthermore, there are 2 types of electrons to be measured,

• 38-53 keV
• 175-315 keV

 

There are 5 types of protons to be measured.

• 47-68 keV
• 115-195 keV
• 310-580 keV
• 795-1193 keV
• 1060-1900 keV

Do you have any suggestions on which types of electrons and protons should be monitored for any warning signals? 

 

Thanks everyone very much for any suggestions :>

 

[Vancanneyt Sander]

The impact was too weak because it was also more than a day overdue, which means that the CME slowed much down and that it was barely detectible.

In EPAM for the average user we look at the blue line in the electron monitor and the red one on the proton part. But we already explained it in our help article we mentioned earlier in this topic. We wrote that with a reason.