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Active Region 1692

Vancanneyt Sander

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SpaceWeatherLive Rapport

Analysis Solar Activity March 15th 2013



Synopsis M-class flare

Active Region 1692 is now on the center of the Solar Disk and looked promising when it appeared on the limb; but activity of the sunspot was below average and the sunspot complex was not very complex. This morning a long duration M-class flare erupted around this sunspot region. PROBA2 imagery indicated a filament eruption near this area. On the moment the eruption happened, SDO images where black due to the eclipse season. The PROBA2 images do reveal the location of the eruption (see attachment) and shows a very bright loop around the sunspot complex


CME evaluation

With these types of long duration events, we know for certain that a coronal mass ejection (CME) was associated with this event. At the moment of this update, LASCO data where still not available for this time frame to confirm this but the SECCHI plots of the STEREO satellite shows that there was a bright Earthward CME with a preliminary calculation speed of 900km/sec. This would mean that we can see an impact no earlier than Sunday morning UTC, around 7h UTC with a plus and minus 6h timeframe.. Due to the central position of the sunspot complex we can expect a straight impact which could lead to strong geomagnetic storming. But it's now too early to tell how strong it will be, we will know more when we have LASCO data available. Keep following us on the social media channels and this website for more updates.


It is hard to say right now what kind of chances the middle latitudes will have to see aurora. We are awaiting more data from LASCO before saying something about possible chances. However, the location of this eruption and the resulting CME can result to a heavy geomagnetic storm. However, according to the first data, the IMF will turn north during the impact. We will continue to monitor the situation so keep following the site for more news.


UPDATE: WSA-Enlil model has been updated. They expect a slightly earlier impact around saturday evening 22h UTC with an impact speed of about 800km/sec, this would be better for Europe even though we think this is an (too) early impact. When taking into consideration the LASCO speed estimate of about 1400km/sec, the time frame of the CME arrival will be between Saturday evening and Sunday morning, all times in UTC.

Can we expect further flares?

The magnetic layout of the complex is very simple and is no threat for further moderate or strong flares.

M-class flares: 5% kans

X-class flares: 1% kans

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Finally, again a solar flare. It was a while ago before we got another M class solar eruption. Let's hope more eruptions will follow the next days, however, the magnetic field of the region which had produced the eruption isn't really complex, so I fear we'll get a new period with low solar activity :unsure:

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