High Solar Activity/Solar Maximum

[faster328]

There were high solar activity on late December 2023 to early January 2024, late February 2024, late March 2024, mid-May 2024, late July to early August 2024, and now we are seeing a rise in sunspot complexity again with recent ARs 13806, 13807 and 13813 growing a gamma magnetic configuration and developed deltas.

 

Image: AR 13664 on 10 May 2024.

 

There was a monthly SN of 215.5 on August 2024 alone! September 2024 will see a lot of C and M-class flares, with a few X-class flares.

[TheChef]

1 hour ago, faster328 said:

 September 2024 will see a lot of C and M-class flares, with a few X-class flares.

That's a pretty bold prediction, IMHO. Can you provide your reasoning for this prediction? Or do you have Crystal Balls? 😏

[hamateur 1953]

5 hours ago, TheChef said:

That's a pretty bold prediction, IMHO. Can you provide your reasoning for this prediction? Or do you have Crystal Balls? 😏

I couldn’t agree more!!

[BlueRoom]

Possibly gonna need another agedlikemilk meme... but let's see how this pans out Tom! 😜 

Tbh I hope Faster328 is right. Some more shows would be very welcome.

Edited Wednesday at 06:04 PM by BlueRoom

[hamateur 1953]

3813 seems to be the region revving up anyway.  A general statement like faster made is not unlikely either.  😇

Edited Wednesday at 07:10 PM by hamateur 1953

[faster328]

Due to the recent X2.6 (3 September 2024 or 2024/09/03) and X2.2 (5 September 2024 or 2024/09/05) flares from old AR(s) 3790/3792, it seems that September 2024 is going to be the worst month for big solar flares, as bad as mid-March 2023, mid-May 2024, and late July 2024 - according to unproven theories (now locked). My prediction has been fulfilled.

Unproven theories source: https://community.spaceweatherlive.com/topic/2784-unproven-theories/page/19/#comment-47068

- @faster328, 6 September 2024

Edited Friday at 08:44 AM by faster328

[Marcel de Bont]

September has just started, you aren't providing any evidence to support your claims as to why you expect September to be a high solar activity month. You are just spitting statements without backing them up, this is borderline unproven theories nonsense and you are even referencing to the old unproven theories topic. Be careful with this. The era of unproven theories being allowed is over.

[Adohran]

On 9/4/2024 at 1:52 PM, TheChef said:

That's a pretty bold prediction, IMHO. Can you provide your reasoning for this prediction? Or do you have Crystal Balls? 😏

Chiron is the Space Weather Enjoyers Crystal Sphere (SWECS for short) 😂

[Lawn Boy]

You can’t have proven theories without unproven theories. But as I like to say, I’m not a scientist. Maybe y’all know better.

[Marcel de Bont]

Zojuist, Lawn Boy zei:

You can’t have proven theories without unproven theories. But as I like to say, I’m not a scientist. Maybe y’all know better.

Of course, but when we mean unproven theories we mean making predictions/claiming certain things without backing them up with any substantial evidence. Think coronal holes cause earthquakes. Think planetary alignments causing solar activity to rise. Those are all unproven theories without a slitter of scientific backing to them. Same thing with claiming September will be a high solar activity month. I mean it could very well happen we are still at or near solar maximum. But what scientific evidence can you provide that backs you that you predict this? There is none.

[Lawn Boy]

It’s not my prediction it’s fasters. 
But I would like to predict that Alabama is going to win the national championship this year. I wonder what kind of evidence Bruno had for his predictions.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giordano_Bruno

[Cokelley]

I'm not defending anyone but I will say :

When someone takes an unproven theory personal - as if it were a personal affront-

then you give the unproven theory way more importance than it would have if it were to be ignored instead.

Edited Friday at 07:56 PM by Cokelley

[hamateur 1953]

I will only add what has been stated here ad nauseum.  Solar maximum is only determined in retrospect.  A minimum of six months after a genuine “ peak “ has apparently been observed.   This goes back to 1958 at least.  It is interesting to speculate on, but surprises occur with enough regularity to confound the best predictors of this stuff.  Edit:  PEAS.  Post Eruptive Arcade Stuff.  
I might be able to remember THAT anagram!  🤣🤣🤣

Edited Friday at 05:06 PM by hamateur 1953
Whatchamacallit

[N8daGr8]

Just out of curiosity, can a patterned history of high spot numbers and flare intensity ever predict upcoming sunspot numbers and flare intensity?

[Adohran]

8 minutes ago, N8daGr8 said:

Just out of curiosity, can a patterned history of high spot numbers and flare intensity ever predict upcoming sunspot numbers and flare intensity?

I guess not because the sun has so many processes going on at the same time that saying "It has happened that way" doesn't constitute it doing it again. I mean the best we can do is do short term predictions like the flare ones from the SWPC because if you have a large AR with great complexity it wouldn't be far fetched to say that >M1 is likely.

[Lawn Boy]

I would guess no. I’ll let you decide for yourself. The Ap in this graph is basically telling you flare intensity.

https://www.solen.info/solar/

[hamateur 1953]

9 minutes ago, Lawn Boy said:

I would guess no. I’ll let you decide for yourself. The Ap in this graph is basically telling you flare intensity.

https://www.solen.info/solar/

Its actually the geomagnetic disturbance caused by cmes or possibly coronal holes.  These figures are compiled by GFZ. However @Lawn Boy is essentially correct. In fact, I used GFZ figures last month to locate an unusual series of events at solar minimum between SC 20 and 21.  Big flares completely unexpected.  

[Parabolic]

25 minutes ago, Lawn Boy said:

The Ap in this graph is basically telling you flare intensity.

Ap index is a geomagnetic measurement. It doesn't measure flare strength. Ap is a measurement derived from a conversion from k index to the equivalent of power for the a index and then is averaged from eight, 3 hourly akp indices. This then produces the 24 hour Ap index.

[Lawn Boy]

I knew that I would get in trouble for this. My thought was that the more flare intensify the more AP goes up. I would like to see a graph comparing the two.  When I look at a painting of space weather I see the whole picture, a lot of y’all see brushstrokes.

[G0OFE]

18 minutes ago, Lawn Boy said:

I knew that I would get in trouble for this. My thought was that the more flare intensify the more AP goes up. I would like to see a graph comparing the two.  When I look at a painting of space weather I see the whole picture, a lot of y’all see brushstrokes.

There are a lot of variables... not least in how much a CME resulting from a solar flare interacts with the Earth's magnetic field. An X12 firing off near to the western limb, for example, will have much less effect than an eruptive M5 right in the middle of the solar disk, as the latter would likely fire its spooge right at Earth, wheras the X12 fires it off mostly away from Earth. Then there is the question of how much the plasma actually couples with the Earth's magnetic field and how it's orientated (North - no storm; south - likely storm. Google "Bz" if you don't already know what that means..

 

[hamateur 1953]

1 hour ago, Parabolic said:

Ap index is a geomagnetic measurement. It doesn't measure flare strength. Ap is a measurement derived from a conversion from k index to the equivalent of power for the a index and then is averaged from eight, 3 hourly akp indices. This then produces the 24 hour Ap index.

Precisely correct. Tnx.  Parabolic one more interesting thing. I like looking at Kiruna during storms because of its ease of viewing. You will probably notice the lack of the p suffix.  Cuz its local.  

51 minutes ago, Lawn Boy said:

I knew that I would get in trouble for this. My thought was that the more flare intensify the more AP goes up. I would like to see a graph comparing the two.  When I look at a painting of space weather I see the whole picture, a lot of y’all see brushstrokes.

There is almost too much to consider!! Equatorial Ring Current etc. it still amazes me how lucky we were last May!!  We are very likely to have others but probably none when the weather is clear and 70 f at midnight in Seattle Washington! 

Edited Friday at 07:04 PM by hamateur 1953
Kiruna

[Parabolic]

49 minutes ago, Lawn Boy said:

My thought was that the more flare intensify the more AP goes up.

One key note here is that geomagnetic storming is also caused by filaments and coronal holes. That being said, solar flares of any magnitude often don't produce a solar storm or one big enough to have much effect. There are a couple important factors that determine if a flare will eject any material or just create a big flash and a bunch of radio noise. The several X flares on New Years is a good example showing strong flares don't always eject a CME

[hamateur 1953]

Yes absolutely true @Parabolic  I think AR 3590 was mentioned recently as just such a boon to Hams with its X Flaring however little made escape velocity due to magnetic caging or whatever.   Need all dem ducks in a row to line up!!