MeteoLatvia Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 Looks like it's time to start a topic for this pal. Announced itself explosively, and now we will see its fate on the visible disk in the next days. Already Beta-Gamma. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faster328 Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 AR 3813 was probably the cause of the LDE M5.57 flare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MeteoLatvia Posted September 2 Author Popular Post Share Posted September 2 46 minutes ago, faster328 said: AR 3813 was probably the cause of the LDE M5.57 flare. Yes, the long-duration event yesterday with the massive CME and post-flare arcade loops all came from this region (AR 3813). Matter of fact it is still pretty active. It is clearly evident in AIA 131 and there was already an M1.9 event today at 5:29 UTC HMI continuum and AIA 131 || 2024-09-01 T10:00 - 2024-09-02 T10:00 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris, HB9DFG Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 (edited) ...and, of course, again limb sided and for more safety with a 45° downblast. This group is very low located, so I see very small chances this thing will (1st) erupt well earth sided and (2nd) if at all, it surely will again blast downwards so it will not harm any satellites and will bring no low latitude aurora shows. If I see all these always limb sided biggest CMEs I wonder will we ever have one such big CME on a fully direct way towards us in this cycle? Regards, Chris Edited September 2 by Chris, HB9DFG 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aten Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 36 minutes ago, MeteoLatvia said: Yes, the long-duration event yesterday with the massive CME and post-flare arcade loops all came from this region (AR 3813). Matter of fact it is still pretty active. It is clearly evident in AIA 131 and there was already an M1.9 event today at 5:29 UTC I'm not yet sure if the big cme was from AR 3813. I think it may have come from a different region just beyond the limb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChef Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 While it's got good size & promising magnetic complexity, it's awfully low on the Solar Globe, at S22. It would take an exceptionally well aimed shot to provide anything Earth directed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteoLatvia Posted September 2 Author Share Posted September 2 8 minutes ago, Aten said: I'm not yet sure if the big cme was from AR 3813. I think it may have come from a different region just beyond the limb Actually - it is really good point, because I checked again the imagery, and it seems that the flare was even a bit more South than the AR 3813. On the far side imagery, there is something very small visible just Southeast of our current AR 3813, but the signal looks to weak fur such a flare in my opinion. It would be interesting to monitor the eastern limb in the next days either way. 2 minutes ago, TheChef said: While it's got good size & promising magnetic complexity, it's awfully low on the Solar Globe, at S22. It would take an exceptionally well aimed shot to provide anything Earth directed. Yes, I agree, but I won't say it's awfully high latitude. Well, of course, we would appreciate lower latitude regions, but if it kicks off some strong flaring, we at least have something, because I don't see any other real candidates for activity in the near future (unless something rapidly emerges ). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChef Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 8 minutes ago, MeteoLatvia said: "I don't see any other real candidates for activity in the near future" I don't know about that? AR3806 is at S10 & just entering the "danger zone" at E15. Is at 330 MSH & has a couple different possibilities for it to increase size & complexity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteoLatvia Posted September 2 Author Share Posted September 2 43 minutes ago, TheChef said: I don't know about that? AR3806 is at S10 & just entering the "danger zone" at E15. Is at 330 MSH & has a couple different possibilities for it to increase size & complexity. Yes, but it seems that this region (3806) is really living on it's last legs. The sunspot number is getting higher, but they are very open-type, so there had been no real acitivity for few days already. We can hope for rapid development. 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KateD Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 Is there another M-flare happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteoLatvia Posted September 2 Author Share Posted September 2 6 minutes ago, KateD said: Is there another M-flare happening? Yep, but no clue where it comes from for now, because AIA has not updated yet with new imagery. It looks like it peaked as M1.87 at 13:26 UTC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 (edited) Seems this region is connected with something on the farside, eruption further back there and you can see it connect right into this region producing the M-flare. It might even go higher than the current peak in a while. Edited September 2 by mozy 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteoLatvia Posted September 2 Author Share Posted September 2 I think we are up for another very eruptive event. The M1.87 was the first peak (I suppose from another region that is somewhat connected to our 3813 as @mozy mentioned), but now the X-ray flux is on a rise again. Currently at M2.75 and rising... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 9 minutes ago, mozy said: It might even go higher than the current peak in a while. Why exactly? And nice catch once again, mozy. i didnt see it I missed regions that are somehow connected with each other! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaviMJ2304 Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 Region 3807 is flaring at the same time! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 Just now, JaviMJ2304 said: Region 3807 is flaring at the same time! yep! I dont exactly know which one flared stronger though. i suppose 3807? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteoLatvia Posted September 2 Author Share Posted September 2 (edited) 8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: yep! I dont exactly know which one flared stronger though. i suppose 3807? Based purely on AIA 131, I guess the flare from 3813 was stronger and thus registered as M2.98. But checking the SUVI - I might be wrong. And the answer is here: By the way - I am sorry for my post/image spam, I will reduce the number of posts, replies, and images, so it doesn't mess this up. Edited September 2 by MeteoLatvia Adding more context Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaviMJ2304 Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 noaa is assigning a 20% chance for a major eruption in this region. Haven't seen that in a while 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturnitis Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 1 minute ago, JaviMJ2304 said: noaa is assigning a 20% chance for a major eruption in this region. Haven't seen that in a while Not necessarily a major eruption so to speak, but just the X flare probability. I think the 20% chance for protons is based on the fact that we’re currently receiving protons from the massive flare yesterday. That’s what I understood, correct me if I’m wrong please. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 1 minute ago, Saturnitis said: Not necessarily a major eruption so to speak, but just the X flare probability. I think the 20% chance for protons is based on the fact that we’re currently receiving protons from the massive flare yesterday. That’s what I understood, correct me if I’m wrong please. It makes sense and is the most plausible answer I myself could come up with another thing that I wonder is, why they assigned it a 20% X chance. I thought it doesn’t really have deltas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 (edited) 3 hours ago, Chris, HB9DFG said: ...and, of course, again limb sided and for more safety with a 45° downblast. This group is very low located, so I see very small chances this thing will (1st) erupt well earth sided and (2nd) if at all, it surely will again blast downwards so it will not harm any satellites and will bring no low latitude aurora shows. If I see all these always limb sided biggest CMEs I wonder will we ever have one such big CME on a fully direct way towards us in this cycle? Regards, Chris We will of course, however we are not past solar max imho. When we pass it the regions will drop lower in latitude providing the sun with an easier target. Edited September 2 by hamateur 1953 Grammer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaviMJ2304 Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 28 minutes ago, Saturnitis said: Not necessarily a major eruption so to speak, but just the X flare probability. I think the 20% chance for protons is based on the fact that we’re currently receiving protons from the massive flare yesterday. That’s what I understood, correct me if I’m wrong please. But major eruption and X flare are not the same thing? Or am I misunderstanding something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 4 minutes ago, JaviMJ2304 said: But major eruption and X flare are not the same thing? Or am I misunderstanding something? We actually can have a mid level X flare without significant ejecta or sun spewing. Probably magnetic caging is responsible for this if my understanding is correct. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteoLatvia Posted September 2 Author Share Posted September 2 11 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said: We actually can have a mid level X flare without significant ejecta or sun spewing. Probably magnetic caging is responsible for this if my understanding is correct. And February 22 I think was a great example of that - X6.3 flare from region 3590 without any major eruption, only faint, slow CME which I think didn't even reached the L1 point. There can be a major flare without major eruption (CME), but not vice versa (unless it is filament eruption). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgrant26 Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 (edited) The M2.9 looked eruptive on SDO. Waiting to see it on LASCO. Edited September 2 by cgrant26 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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