faster328 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 (edited) CME from 3784's X1.11 flare. Expected to arrive and cause aurora on 15-16 August. Edited August 18 by faster328 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaviMJ2304 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 100% confirmed? That means the CME has been ejected at high speed, right? It would take a maximum of 48 hours to arrive, if that forecast is accurate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faster328 Posted August 14 Author Share Posted August 14 Not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Yohualli Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Is it a narrow CME headed towards us? Because if so it would be very difficult to know its speed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 the cme visible there is largely from the west limb eruption as @MeteoLatvia mentioned, i think. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sypior213 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: the cme visible there is largely from the west limb eruption as @MeteoLatvia mentioned, i think. I can add that I think I see a partial halo on LASCO-C2 - it is barely visible tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faster328 Posted August 14 Author Share Posted August 14 (edited) 5 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: the cme visible there is largely from the west limb eruption as @MeteoLatvia mentioned, i think. But I think that one of the CMEs (the smaller one) came from the X1.11 flare as it is positioned on the left (Earth-directed/STEREO-A east limb). Edited August 14 by faster328 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Yohualli Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 1 minute ago, faster328 said: Pero creo que uno de los CME (probablemente el más pequeño) provino de la llamarada X1.11, ya que está posicionada a la izquierda (dirigida a la Tierra/ extremo este STEREO -A). So it's a narrow CME headed toward Earth? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaviMJ2304 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 I think @Jesterface23 will help us better to determine if its a big one coming or not, plus we still don't have full images of lasco yet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faster328 Posted August 14 Author Share Posted August 14 1 minute ago, Alan Yohualli said: So it's a narrow CME headed toward Earth? Probably it might be a partial or full halo CME, but we don't know right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 i dont think its narrow. why would it be narrow? it was exactly in the middle of the earth facing zone and seemingly there was ejecta to all sides, i just dont think the dimming looked too crazy, but sometimes im off with my guesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helios Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 I think it's visible in the first new lasco images 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
faster328 Posted August 14 Author Share Posted August 14 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: i dont think its narrow. why would it be narrow? it was exactly in the middle of the earth facing zone and seemingly there was ejecta to all sides, i just dont think the dimming looked too crazy, but sometimes im off with my guesses. See the reasoning below. Just now, helios said: I think it's visible in the first new lasco images See the reasoning below. Reasoning: The "narrow" CME might be a halo (whether partial or full) CME in disguise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helios Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 (edited) Or is it the fast, narrow to the south-east? I think that might be another eruption. Edited August 14 by helios 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 33 minutes ago, helios said: Or is it the fast, narrow to the south-east? I think that might be another eruption. Im unsure. i found this on twitter, but i really do not know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 36 minuten geleden, helios zei: Or is it the fast, narrow to the south-east? I think that might be another eruption. I think the SE eruption is something else. The faint halo in the end is from the X1 I believe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misaka Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 40 minutes ago, helios said: Or is it the fast, narrow to the south-east? I think that might be another eruption. 3 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said: I think the SE eruption is something else. The faint halo in the end is from the X1 I believe. Both in the dimming and in the STEREO images it is already visible that the CME is pointing more northwards. So it would make sense that it would first be visible in the north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgrant26 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Looks like we can see the first edges on C3 now emerging to the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaviMJ2304 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Well, we know that there doesn't necessarily have to be a major CME to trigger a strong geomagnetic storm, as was the case with the last G4 or the G3 from two weeks ago. There are many other factors to consider, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cokelley Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 4 minutes ago, JaviMJ2304 said: Well, we know that there doesn't necessarily have to be a major CME to trigger a strong geomagnetic storm, as was the case with the last G4 or the G3 from two weeks ago. There are many other factors to consider, so we'll see. Very true and the g4 we experienced on 8/12 was originally said to be a faint halo and not much to talk about on the forums also. Not a jab at anyone just a lesson on patience and you never know until it arrives! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 16 minutes ago, Cokelley said: Very true and the g4 we experienced on 8/12 was originally said to be a faint halo and not much to talk about on the forums also. Not a jab at anyone just a lesson on patience and you never know until it arrives! yep, we can never really forecast how the BZ will play out thus said, i think there are some scientists working on fluxrope modelling. i've seen 2-3 cases now where they were able to forecast the fluxrope signature! Cool beans. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WA1ZJL Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Too easy to expect nothing. The last one a couple days ago from what I was seeing I expected it would be all over by darkness here. Didn't bother looking and my wife showed me aurora pictures taken here in town. Rats. I missed it. Won't get caught that way again! Just goes to show as Cokelly said you're never sure till it's here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cokelley Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 28 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: yep, we can never really forecast how the BZ will play out thus said, i think there are some scientists working on fluxrope modelling. i've seen 2-3 cases now where they were able to forecast the fluxrope signature! Cool beans. That is awesome !!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaviMJ2304 Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 Wow. Lasco is showing a very bright CME. Is that from a farside flare? Or it's from the X1 flare? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misaka Posted August 14 Share Posted August 14 1 minute ago, JaviMJ2304 said: Wow. Lasco is showing a very bright CME. Is that from a farside flare? Or it's from the X1 flare? If you mean the CME on the right. No, it is not from the X1 and was on the limb/farside 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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