Region 3774/3777/3780 2024/08/07-2024/08/10 CMEs

[Jesterface23]

A full halo CME from AR13774. The SWPC issued a G2 watch again.

I'll have my give my thoughts later as well.

[MinYoongi]

15 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

A full halo CME from AR13774. The SWPC issued a G2 watch again.

I'll have my give my thoughts later as well.

Glad you opened up this thread! And yes please, your opinion is wanted 🤓🙏

I’m a bit confused with NASA models showing kp 6-8 (although the models can’t consider stuff like faintness etc that’s why it needs forecasters like the ones from swpc. @Tony Iampietro explained this super good in another thread) and I’m even raising an eyebrow for the G2 watch and noaa thinking it will arrive with 700kms. 

[MinYoongi]

BTW: Solarham and others have raised the question if the halo CME is even from the m4 or farside.d. Would like some opinions on that to make up my mind!

[Jesterface23]

What a treat. Another CME.

Region 3774 did launch a CME first, the question lies in was there a farside CME.

[Prizma1227]

1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said:

What a treat. Another CME.

Region 3774 did launch a CME first, the question lies in was there a farside CME.

are you asking if 3774 was a CME or 3777?

3774 CME and LASCO(c2) line up pretty well,

the second one happens somewhere between 1436 and 1505 ( 29 minute difference between LASCO frames...... ) 

there's nothing that STIX really shows happening between this timeframe. or shortly previous.

 

now im good at messing these predictions up so take what i say with a grain of salt, but i believe this is frontside activity. 

[Cokelley]

Here is CME scoreboard's take on the 2 CME's :

Active CMEs:

CME: 2024-08-07T14:24:00-CME-001

CME Note: Faint CME visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. The CME is not visible in STEREO A COR2 in real-time due to a data gap starting at 2024-08-07T14:09Z. Eruption with M4.5 flare from AR 3744 (approx. S10W22), field line movement, and possible faint EUV wave visible in SDO AIA 193. Opening field lines are best seen in SDO AIA 171 and GOES SUVI 284. The eruption is also visible from the point of view of STEREO A EUV 195.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By 2024-08-09T19:19Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-08-07T19:44Z 47.58 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail 2024-08-09T17:19Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-08-07T20:31Z 44.80 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail 2024-08-09T22:12Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 5.33333 - 7.33333 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail 2024-08-10T06:00Z (-8.0h, +8.0h) ---- ---- 2024-08-08T00:01Z 53.98 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Met Office (Met Office) Detail

 

CME: 2024-08-07T03:24:00-CME-001

CME Note: CME first seen in the SE by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2024-08-07T03:24Z as well as in later frames of C3 and STEREO A COR2. This CME appears very faint in white light imagery. The best fit between SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A indicate that this event may originate from the vicinity of S15E30, however there is no definitive source seen on the disk for this event. There are a number of speculative sources including field line loop movement and brightening from AR 3781 (S13E42) as seen in SDO AIA 94.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By 2024-08-10T04:31Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-08-07T19:02Z 57.48 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) Detail 2024-08-09T17:19Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-08-07T20:31Z 44.80 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail 2024-08-09T22:55Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

[Jesterface23]

1 hour ago, Prizma1227 said:

are you asking if 3774 was a CME or 3777?

3774 CME and LASCO(c2) line up pretty well,

the second one happens somewhere between 1436 and 1505 ( 29 minute difference between LASCO frames...... ) 

there's nothing that STIX really shows happening between this timeframe. or shortly previous.

Yes, certainly there was a CME on our side.

After analyzing the coronagraph imagery, I don't believe there was a farside CME from the flare on that side. We look to have the full halo with the core coming at us.

..................

For region 3774's CME, so far I'm thinking the arrival span may be early on the 10th with a slight chance of G2 going past mid-day down to a chance of G1.

Region 3777's CME is still waiting on imagery, but it looks like there is a chance it will be slower than the first CME.

[Prizma1227]

its a little off topic,  but

out of interest @Jesterface23 how do you calculate the speed of a CME, surely it would be pretty hard considering we only see a front on image from lasco?

 

we need a coronagraph at L4 or L5 already. would make forecasting so much simpler surely.

 

 

Edited August 8 by Prizma1227
Messed up my Lagrange point numbers....

[hamateur 1953]

@Prizma1227 I  checked his profile recently out of curiosity.  He actually lists his location at L1 🤣🤣🤣😎

Edited August 8 by hamateur 1953
Tagged prizma

[Tomo]

2 hours ago, Cokelley said:

Here is CME scoreboard's take on the 2 CME's :

Active CMEs:

CME: 2024-08-07T14:24:00-CME-001

CME Note: Faint CME visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. The CME is not visible in STEREO A COR2 in real-time due to a data gap starting at 2024-08-07T14:09Z. Eruption with M4.5 flare from AR 3744 (approx. S10W22), field line movement, and possible faint EUV wave visible in SDO AIA 193. Opening field lines are best seen in SDO AIA 171 and GOES SUVI 284. The eruption is also visible from the point of view of STEREO A EUV 195.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By 2024-08-09T19:19Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-08-07T19:44Z 47.58 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail 2024-08-09T17:19Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-08-07T20:31Z 44.80 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail 2024-08-09T22:12Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 5.33333 - 7.33333 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail 2024-08-10T06:00Z (-8.0h, +8.0h) ---- ---- 2024-08-08T00:01Z 53.98 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0 Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Met Office (Met Office) Detail

 

CME: 2024-08-07T03:24:00-CME-001

CME Note: CME first seen in the SE by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2024-08-07T03:24Z as well as in later frames of C3 and STEREO A COR2. This CME appears very faint in white light imagery. The best fit between SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A indicate that this event may originate from the vicinity of S15E30, however there is no definitive source seen on the disk for this event. There are a number of speculative sources including field line loop movement and brightening from AR 3781 (S13E42) as seen in SDO AIA 94.

Predicted Shock Arrival Time Difference (hrs) Confidence (%) Submitted On Lead Time (hrs) Predicted Geomagnetic Storm Parameter(s) Method Submitted By 2024-08-10T04:31Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-08-07T19:02Z 57.48 Max Kp Range: 4.0 - 6.0 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) Detail 2024-08-09T17:19Z (-7.0h, +7.0h) ---- ---- 2024-08-07T20:31Z 44.80 Max Kp Range: 6.0 - 8.0 WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M) Mary Aronne (M2M Office) Detail 2024-08-09T22:55Z ---- ---- --- --- Max Kp Range: 5.0 - 7.0 Average of all Methods Auto Generated (CCMC) Detail

Are you kidding me? G4 possible WHEN IM GOING ON VACATION SOUTH?????

[Jesterface23]

27 minutes ago, Prizma1227 said:

out of interest @Jesterface23 how do you calculate the speed of a CME, surely it would be pretty hard considering we only see a front on image from lasco?

Technically, I don't obtain the speed of a CME.

Having STEREO A could help, but coronagraph imagery from just SOHO can say more than you may think.

[Manuel]

I hope for a G3 tomorrow even though NOAA is going for a G2

[Jesterface23]

The CME from region 3777 is hard to pinpoint, but given it actually does arrive, it might be at some point mid-day on the 11th to mid-day on the 12th.

[Manuel]

29 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

The CME from region 3777 is hard to pinpoint, but given it actually does arrive, it might be at some point mid-day on the 11th to mid-day on the 12th.

Was hoping for it to arrive earlier

Edited August 8 by Manuel

[Jesterface23]

5 minutes ago, Manuel said:

So it won't amplify the storm of tomorrow

I guess it depends. Maybe if the first CME arrives later on the 10th and the second arrives early on the 11th. But the odds of that happening would certainly be questionable.

[Manuel]

2 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

I guess it depends. Maybe if the first CME arrives later on the 10th and the second arrives early on the 11th. But the odds of that happening would certainly be questionable.

Thanks a lot!!

[Jesterface23]

I guess we're stuck with this image for a while.

[Malisha Reuvekamp]

Yes, it has a long way to go.🙈

[Tony Iampietro]

19 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

I guess we're stuck with this image for a while.

SOHO downlink's got a public site for reference! https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/operations/schedule/schedule.html

One more hour till latest, then maybe another for the backfill. Waiting diligently 😅

[Philalethes]

5 minutes ago, Tony Iampietro said:

SOHO downlink's got a public site for reference! https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/operations/schedule/schedule.html

One more hour till latest, then maybe another for the backfill. Waiting diligently 😅

Very cool, didn't realize there was a public schedule. Does that schedule ever get overridden in special cases? It has seemed to me on some occasions that LASCO gets prioritized for DSN access after large potential CMEs, but maybe that's just my imagination, and that it's all been according to schedule all along, heh.

[Tony Iampietro]

11 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Very cool, didn't realize there was a public schedule. Does that schedule ever get overridden in special cases? It has seemed to me on some occasions that LASCO gets prioritized for DSN access after large potential CMEs, but maybe that's just my imagination, and that it's all been according to schedule all along, heh.

Rare occasions it strays, but it pretty much always follows that schedule! Would love if it got priority, for events like this one, but unfortunately we're stuck waiting for the imagery.

[Jesterface23]

SA's data comes first,

[Cokelley]

Here's the latest dimming :

https://www.sidc.be/solardemon/dimmings_details.php?science=0&dimming_id=10862&delay=80&prefix=pBDI_&small=1&aid=0&graph=1

[Alan Yohualli]

5 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Los datos de SA son lo primero,

Well, it's not weak...

[Jesterface23]

2 minutes ago, Alan Yohualli said:

Well, it's not weak...

The CME just launched into a bright area, but I guess we'll find out if it is weak shortly.

..........

This is pretty good timing too. The CME didn't pass all the way through SA's COR2 imagery and it can be used to help create a forecast.

..........

It seems like a preliminary travel time to STEREO A might be around 3 days. Might give that a good +-12 hour buffer at this point.