AR3777

[Miles]

Figured AR3777 has grown significantly and now shows a potential delta. What are all your thoughts on it?

Edited August 6 by Miles

[Cokelley]

Agreed, it is close to having a Delta from what I can tell but not there quite yet !

[Misaka]

Wrong region

 

Edited August 7 by Misaka

[Cokelley]

6 minutes ago, Misaka said:

M4.5 Flare from this region

This one speaks first today, let's see if 3780 wants to chime in now !

[JaviMJ2304]

10 minutes ago, Misaka said:

M4.5 Flare from this region

Not this region 

[Ester89]

M4,1 flare from this region now

[JaviMJ2304]

7 minutes ago, Ester89 said:

M4,1 flare from this region now

Coming up a bit more

[cgrant26]

And it's a nice flat curve, long-duration flare too. Hoping for a good CME

[MinYoongi]

3 minutes ago, cgrant26 said:

And it's a nice flat curve, long-duration flare too. Hoping for a good CME

I still find it hard to say what is long duration and what isn’t, do you have a tip to better spot what’s a lde and what’s not?

[JaviMJ2304]

4 minutes ago, cgrant26 said:

And it's a nice flat curve, long-duration flare too. Hoping for a good CME

You are absolutely right. Looks to be eruptive

[Saturnitis]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

I still find it hard to say what is long duration and what isn’t, do you have a tip to better spot what’s a lde and what’s not?

I think it’s just speculation based on how fast or slow the X-ray flux goes down. For a relatively “small” flare like this, the fact that it’s maintained similar M levels since peak makes me also think that it’ll be a LDE. Basically the flatter the graph, the better.

(I’m still new so I’m not entirely sure but that’s kind of what I’ve gathered)

[MinYoongi]

5 minutes ago, JaviMJ2304 said:

You are absolutely right. Looks to be eruptive

In what imagery 

Sdo is still a bit behind I think

I see a bit to the left of the region. What do you guys say?

[ScrapFatherScrapSon]

If this puts out a good CME that’s good right it’s center disc almost exactly nice seeing some good stuff from the unsuspecting spots so to speak let’s see something from 3780Now!

16 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

I still find it hard to say what is long duration and what isn’t, do you have a tip to better spot what’s a lde and what’s not?

I think quite simply the more a plateau instead of a sharp peak is a longer duration in my rookie opinion!!

[chronical]

15 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

What do you guys say?

There is a clear shockwave heading east on AIA 171, we might be in for something good.

[MinYoongi]

Just now, chronical said:

There is a clear shockwave heading east on AIA 171, we might be in for something good.

Thanks, but if it’s going east isn’t that a bit left of us?

[JaviMJ2304]

18 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

In what imagery 

Sdo is still a bit behind I think

I see a bit to the left of the region. What do you guys say?

I did not look any imagery, just the basic one, but to me the flare looked eruptive🙂

[chronical]

19 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Thanks, but if it’s going east isn’t that a bit left of us?

Yeah, I was saying we might be in for something good assuming that there was a part towards us and with the clearliness of the shockwave, I should'nt have though.

Here's a view of this shockwave. You can clearly see a part heading ENE to ESE, and looking at it more carefully, the shockwave seems to also head south and SW.

Edited August 7 by chronical

[NEAurora]

Looks maybe eruptive?  I’m not super optimistic that it’s anything great, maybe a slow mover? hard to say just yet. That said, it definitely shook the big loop connecting 3777 and 3779.  
 

You can watch it reverberate in the 195ang. A little stronger flare might be enough to snap that loop (?) and that would be a much a more impressive eruption.  

Let us hope this was just a prelude to what’s to come?

[MinYoongi]

I wonder why noaa issued a G2 for the faint CME that occurred previously

[cgrant26]

59 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

I still find it hard to say what is long duration and what isn’t, do you have a tip to better spot what’s a lde and what’s not?

There's not really a clear definition I could give for it, but as a general rule of thumb for me, if I'm, looking at the 6 hour Goes X-Ray flux graph, anything that has a soft curve vs a sharp spike and a ramp up or down that has a ratio more than 2 to 1 horizontal to vertical I would consider that long duration. 

Take for example the 6-hour graph from the two X flares from the other day; notice how the first one has a soft, flatter curve and a broad, gradual ramp down. Then look at the X1.1 a few hours later and you see the ramp up and down are both steep and the peak is sharp and spiky. First one I would consider long-duration based on the graph characteristics I highlighted.

 

I'm sure there's probably some scientific or more empirical differentiation between long-duration flares and not, but for me, that is how I make the distinction.

Edited August 7 by cgrant26

[chlorine_pasta]

From what i can see a G2 came from the M4 flare. This looks like its going to grow into a big group

 

corection, a G2 from the m1.1 flare i dont know why not the m4 flare. still new to this stuff. just learned what a delta is lol

Edited August 7 by chlorine_pasta
corrected wrong info

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, cgrant26 said:

There's not really a clear definition I could give for it, but as a general rule of thumb for me, if I'm, looking at the 6 hour Goes X-Ray flux graph, anything that has a soft curve vs a sharp spike and a ramp up or down that has a ratio more than 2 to 1 horizontal to vertical I would consider that long duration. 

Take for example the 6-hour graph from the two X flares from the other day; notice how the first one has a soft, flatter curve and a broad, gradual ramp down. Then look at the X1.1 a few hours later and you see the ramp up and down are both steep and the peak is sharp and spiky. First one I would consider long-duration based on the graph characteristics I highlighted.

 

I'm sure there's probably some scientific or more empirical differentiation between long-duration flares and not, but for me, that is how I make the distinction.

That’s a great explanation and helps a lot! Thank you 😇🥰

 

btw : I think after someone showed me the dimming on solardemon that there was something ejected after the M5. Any opinions?:)

[cgrant26]

32 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

That’s a great explanation and helps a lot! Thank you 😇🥰

 

btw : I think after someone showed me the dimming on solardemon that there was something ejected after the M5. Any opinions?:)

I'll defer to C2/C3 in a couple hours but if there's a CME, my guess is slow and not real strong. We need our CME whispers @Jesterface23 and @mozy to chime in.

[chronical]

Another M-flare from this region and 3781.

[hamateur 1953]

Look at those loops on the limb of hope too!! Impressive.