Sunspot count Hits 23 year high !!!

[Cokelley]

Here is a great article I copied from @spaceweather.com

We are in a great cycle right now !!

SUNSPOT COUNTS HIT A 23-YEAR HIGH: The sun is partying like it's 2001. That's the last time sunspot counts were as high as they are now. The monthly average sunspot number for July 2024 was 196.5, according to the Royal Observatory of Belgium's Solar Influences Data Analysis Center. This eclipses every month since Dec. 2001:

Solar Cycle 25 wasn't expected to be this strong. When it began in Dec. 2019, experts predicted it would be a weak cycle like its immediate predecessor Solar Cycle 24. If that forecast had panned out, Solar Cycle 25 would be one of the weakest solar cycles in a century.

Instead, Solar Cycle 25 has shot past Solar Cycle 24 and may be on pace to rival some of the stronger cycles of the 20th century. Already in May 2024 we have experienced a century-class geomagnetic storm with auroras sighted in the South Pacific, central America and south Africa.

Above: A composite image of sunspots in July 2024. credit: Senol Sanli

The last time sunspot numbers were this high, the sun was on the verge of launching the Great Halloween Storms of 2003, which included the strongest X-ray solar flare ever recorded (X45) and a CME so powerful it was ultimately detected by the Voyager spacecraft at the edge of the solar system.

Is this Solar Max? The jury is still out. Sunspot numbers may continue to rise in the months ahead and, based on the behavior of previous cycles, we can confidently expect high solar activity for at least 2 to 3 more years. Stay tuned!

[Adohran]

I don't think we'll beat SC23 but this cycle maximum will be a great one 

[hamateur 1953]

I was just gonna check SFI max for 23. We may beat that soon.  Monthly mean anyway 

We are still climbing with at least ten days to expose yet. Haha. 

[Loganas]

3 hours ago, Cokelley said:

Here is a great article I copied from @spaceweather.com

We are in a great cycle right now !!

SUNSPOT COUNTS HIT A 23-YEAR HIGH: The sun is partying like it's 2001. That's the last time sunspot counts were as high as they are now. The monthly average sunspot number for July 2024 was 196.5, according to the Royal Observatory of Belgium's Solar Influences Data Analysis Center. This eclipses every month since Dec. 2001:

Solar Cycle 25 wasn't expected to be this strong. When it began in Dec. 2019, experts predicted it would be a weak cycle like its immediate predecessor Solar Cycle 24. If that forecast had panned out, Solar Cycle 25 would be one of the weakest solar cycles in a century.

Instead, Solar Cycle 25 has shot past Solar Cycle 24 and may be on pace to rival some of the stronger cycles of the 20th century. Already in May 2024 we have experienced a century-class geomagnetic storm with auroras sighted in the South Pacific, central America and south Africa.

Above: A composite image of sunspots in July 2024. credit: Senol Sanli

The last time sunspot numbers were this high, the sun was on the verge of launching the Great Halloween Storms of 2003, which included the strongest X-ray solar flare ever recorded (X45) and a CME so powerful it was ultimately detected by the Voyager spacecraft at the edge of the solar system.

Is this Solar Max? The jury is still out. Sunspot numbers may continue to rise in the months ahead and, based on the behavior of previous cycles, we can confidently expect high solar activity for at least 2 to 3 more years. Stay tuned!

What does this mean for future solar cycle predictions? It seems like we don't really have the knowledge yet to predict these things at all. SC24 and SC25 predictions are way off now, is it even worth making these predictions in the first place? How are they even made anyways?

[WhereingtonEvent]

5 hours ago, Cokelley said:

Here is a great article I copied from @spaceweather.com

We are in a great cycle right now !!

SUNSPOT COUNTS HIT A 23-YEAR HIGH: The sun is partying like it's 2001. That's the last time sunspot counts were as high as they are now. The monthly average sunspot number for July 2024 was 196.5, according to the Royal Observatory of Belgium's Solar Influences Data Analysis Center. This eclipses every month since Dec. 2001:

Solar Cycle 25 wasn't expected to be this strong. When it began in Dec. 2019, experts predicted it would be a weak cycle like its immediate predecessor Solar Cycle 24. If that forecast had panned out, Solar Cycle 25 would be one of the weakest solar cycles in a century.

Instead, Solar Cycle 25 has shot past Solar Cycle 24 and may be on pace to rival some of the stronger cycles of the 20th century. Already in May 2024 we have experienced a century-class geomagnetic storm with auroras sighted in the South Pacific, central America and south Africa.

Above: A composite image of sunspots in July 2024. credit: Senol Sanli

The last time sunspot numbers were this high, the sun was on the verge of launching the Great Halloween Storms of 2003, which included the strongest X-ray solar flare ever recorded (X45) and a CME so powerful it was ultimately detected by the Voyager spacecraft at the edge of the solar system.

Is this Solar Max? The jury is still out. Sunspot numbers may continue to rise in the months ahead and, based on the behavior of previous cycles, we can confidently expect high solar activity for at least 2 to 3 more years. Stay tuned!

That was indeed a great article. Thank you for sharing! 

[hamateur 1953]

2 hours ago, Loganas said:

What does this mean for future solar cycle predictions? It seems like we don't really have the knowledge yet to predict these things at all. SC24 and SC25 predictions are way off now, is it even worth making these predictions in the first place? How are they even made anyways?

You are absolutely correct!   I was discussing this in the growth of thread with another member briefly And philalthes brought up Scott Mckintosh ( I can never spell his surname properly haha). Predictions. I thought it was about. 180 smoothed and he had the full set.  Under 190 anyway Not that we will know for two years or more but this cycle continues to lay waste to everyone else except maybe those Im unaware of.  Mine as well btw. Glad I didn’t have any hard cash down. Haha. 

Edited August 4 by hamateur 1953
Bad grammah

[Philalethes]

4 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

I was just gonna check SFI max for 23. We may beat that soon.  Monthly mean anyway 

It's not impossible, but we'd have to sustain the values we've seen the past few days for a whole month; not sure how realistic that is, we'll see. Here's the 31-day average maximum for SC23:

Edited August 4 by Philalethes
typo

[hamateur 1953]

I had 220 mean. As a wild guess. An Aussie I know has 230.  Ok then. 

Oh yes. I shot for 270 max flux. Aussie has 280.  Bets are down no edits. All just good fun really. I’ve no clue WHAT may happen in August. besides my lawn overtaking my house soon 🤣

Btw these are F10.7 numbers. 

[Loganas]

31 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

You are absolutely correct!   I was discussing this in the growth of thread with another member briefly And philalthes brought up Scott Mckintosh ( I can never spell his surname properly haha). Predictions. I thought it was about. 180 smoothed and he had the full set.  Under 190 anyway Not that we will know for two years or more but this cycle continues to lay waste to everyone else except maybe those Im unaware of.  Mine as well btw. Glad I didn’t have any hard cash down. Haha. 

Definitely not complaining though lol.

We're already on track to beat SC23 in terms of X-class flares too, SC25 regions also appear to be more active, producing more strong flares per sunspot.

[hamateur 1953]

A pleasant change.  Especially encouraging are the region average latitudes still. I probably won’t even bother checking these until September. Nice spread currently suggesting we are still climbing towards solar maximum. 

[Lettinaturesettin]

Hello,  I know this seems so far fetched.  I am a prophet of the modern era. My name is Lettinaturesettin.  I really love this community; that being said, a historic and unprecedented solar flare is about to strike the earth. I've  been telling people about this prediction since December 2023 on reddit.

 

Mainly, that a historic solar flare was about to strike the earth. All scientific models point to SC 25 being mild. I place this hear, as the greatest solar flare ever to be recorded is about to happen.

Some would say that May 2024 were historic in of itself; but I am gently letting my fellow brothers and sisters know, that this historic solar flare is on its way.

 

The evidence of this message lie in the this very post, and that which can be found on reddit.  I leave this here for scientific scrutiny.  The time at hand is moving rapidly towards the present. May this message, stand the test of time.

[hamateur 1953]

Wow 

Looking forward to it.  Man wish I still took acid. 

So during May 10-12 storm my sister in California has a neighbor who still takes acid at 72 yrs of age. She goes over to grab her friend who is actually totally wasted on acid however she says she sees the aurora Through her ceiling!  My sister tried reasoning with her to no avail.  Haha. Mercy what a fun planet of nutcakes we have among  us!  Absolutely true Btw. LSD is a very dangerous drug. Not to be taken lightly as we did in the 1960s. Can induce permanent psychosis.  Hmmmm. UPT?  ( jk).  

Edited August 4 by hamateur 1953
Caveat.

[Hadeweka]

1 hour ago, Lettinaturesettin said:

Hello,  I know this seems so far fetched.  I am a prophet of the modern era. My name is Lettinaturesettin.  I really love this community; that being said, a historic and unprecedented solar flare is about to strike the earth. I've  been telling people about this prediction since December 2023 on reddit.

 

Mainly, that a historic solar flare was about to strike the earth. All scientific models point to SC 25 being mild. I place this hear, as the greatest solar flare ever to be recorded is about to happen.

Some would say that May 2024 were historic in of itself; but I am gently letting my fellow brothers and sisters know, that this historic solar flare is on its way.

 

The evidence of this message lie in the this very post, and that which can be found on reddit.  I leave this here for scientific scrutiny.  The time at hand is moving rapidly towards the present. May this message, stand the test of time.

Can you tell me the exact time and date? Maybe even the strength and position?

Need to buy a Faraday cage for my phone and look for a dark place to watch the aurorae.

And make sure my cats are fed. Wait, I have no cats. But maybe I will by then!

Oh, and since we're at it: Do you happen to have the German Lotto numbers for next Wednesday as well? We can split the jackpot 50:50 if you want!

3 hours ago, Loganas said:

Definitely not complaining though lol.

We're already on track to beat SC23 in terms of X-class flares too, SC25 regions also appear to be more active, producing more strong flares per sunspot.

The most interesting thing is that some of the most massive flares in the last decades came after the activity maximum, so we still have some years left with extremely high chances.

I'm really looking forward to it, since SC 24 was such a dud.

[hamateur 1953]

Me too.  @Philalethesposted an interesting thing awhile back. 

@Jesterface23 made a very interesting point the other day pertaining to ALL SCs.   We have yet to see the really excellent blasts that typically occur post Solar Maximum. Why this seens to be so an Astrophysicist would have a better Idea of than a crazy redneck.  Haha. 

1 hour ago, Hadeweka said:

Can you tell me the exact time and date? Maybe even the strength and position?

Need to buy a Faraday cage for my phone and look for a dark place to watch the aurorae.

And make sure my cats are fed. Wait, I have no cats. But maybe I will by then!

Oh, and since we're at it: Do you happen to have the German Lotto numbers for next Wednesday as well? We can split the jackpot 50:50 if you want!

The most interesting thing is that some of the most massive flares in the last decades came after the activity maximum, so we still have some years left with extremely high chances.

I'm really looking forward to it, since SC 24 was such a dud.

I have one that causes me an ER visit three times a year @Hadeweka  He might be an interesting companion! 🤣🤣🐈‍⬛🐈‍⬛

[hamateur 1953]

I took him in at my grandniece’s request.  Her owners were terrible and Hagrid was too.  So I have a cat that actually killed a hawk and we get along fine Most of the time.   🤣🤣🤣

[Justanerd]

3 hours ago, Lettinaturesettin said:

Hello,  I know this seems so far fetched.  I am a prophet of the modern era. My name is Lettinaturesettin.  I really love this community; that being said, a historic and unprecedented solar flare is about to strike the earth. I've  been telling people about this prediction since December 2023 on reddit.

 

Mainly, that a historic solar flare was about to strike the earth. All scientific models point to SC 25 being mild. I place this hear, as the greatest solar flare ever to be recorded is about to happen.

🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

HERE WE GO AGAIN!!!

[Marcel de Bont]

42 minuten geleden, hamateur 1953 zei:

I took him in at my grandniece’s request.  Her owners were terrible and Hagrid was too.  So I have a cat that actually killed a hawk and we get along fine Most of the time.   🤣🤣🤣

Guys just report this kind of stuff and don't fuel the fire you're just making spam and harder for us to keep up with everything.

4 uren geleden, Lettinaturesettin zei:

Hello,  I know this seems so far fetched.  I am a prophet of the modern era. My name is Lettinaturesettin.  I really love this community; that being said, a historic and unprecedented solar flare is about to strike the earth. I've  been telling people about this prediction since December 2023 on reddit.

 

Mainly, that a historic solar flare was about to strike the earth. All scientific models point to SC 25 being mild. I place this hear, as the greatest solar flare ever to be recorded is about to happen.

Some would say that May 2024 were historic in of itself; but I am gently letting my fellow brothers and sisters know, that this historic solar flare is on its way.

 

The evidence of this message lie in the this very post, and that which can be found on reddit.  I leave this here for scientific scrutiny.  The time at hand is moving rapidly towards the present. May this message, stand the test of time.

@Lettinaturesettin Read the message in the warning I send to you. I do not think I need explain any further in here why these kind of posts are not only not allowed on here but also batshit insane. Thanks.

[StargazingHippy]

Didn't see it get shut down and now I can't delete lol

Edited August 5 by StargazingHippy

[hamateur 1953]

31 minutes ago, StargazingHippy said:

Didn't see it get shut down and now I can't delete lol

Loved Marcels doggie.  Haha.  Funny!!

[Cokelley]

@hamateur 1953

Did ya'll see where the solar flux is at 270 today!!?? Wow

[hamateur 1953]

I check it three times daily buddy.  Haha.  Highest in a long time and good numbers too ( not flare enhanced).  Last week at 20::00 we hit 401 sfi during what was possibly an extended flare. This was not used by boulder instead I think they went with 202.  300 peak would be amazing! We hit 370 briefly during SC 23 I think and over 300 many times during SC 19.  Not bad for what was supposed to be a weak cycle. I think we are doing better in smoothed sunspot numbers however @Philalethes and jester watch those more than I do.   

[Cokelley]

30 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

I check it three times daily buddy.  Haha.  Highest in a long time and good numbers too ( not flare enhanced).  Last week at 20::00 we hit 401 sfi during what was possibly an extended flare. This was not used by boulder instead I think they went with 202.  300 peak would be amazing! We hit 370 briefly during SC 23 I think and over 300 many times during SC 19.  Not bad for what was supposed to be a weak cycle. I think we are doing better in smoothed sunspot numbers however @Philalethes and jester watch those more than I do.   

Very cool !! Yeah I was surprised to see it spike like that today without any significant flares in 24 hrs. Mr. Sun is cranking up !

I appreciate your insight !!

Edited August 7 by Cokelley

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, hamateur 1953 said:

I check it three times daily buddy.  Haha.  Highest in a long time and good numbers too ( not flare enhanced).  Last week at 20::00 we hit 401 sfi during what was possibly an extended flare. This was not used by boulder instead I think they went with 202.  300 peak would be amazing! We hit 370 briefly during SC 23 I think and over 300 many times during SC 19.  Not bad for what was supposed to be a weak cycle. I think we are doing better in smoothed sunspot numbers however @Philalethes and jester watch those more than I do.   

It sure is high these days. I'd argue that we're doing better in terms of F10.7 than SSN, although the latter also keeps increasing with the latest months of high activity. One reason for this is how we're still well below the somewhat similar (in terms of magnitude) SC20 when it comes to SSN, but well above it in terms of F10.7; here's an updated plot of 365-day averages of the F10.7 with the maxima of all the cycles:

Might tie in with how the F10.7-to-SN ratio seems to be higher than usual so far this cycle.

As you probably saw in a recent post the shorter-term average (31 days) is even closing in on that of SC23, but even if we reach that I doubt it'll be sustained long enough to beat that second long-term SC23 peak above.

[hamateur 1953]

N

6 hours ago, Philalethes said:

It sure is high these days. I'd argue that we're doing better in terms of F10.7 than SSN, although the latter also keeps increasing with the latest months of high activity. One reason for this is how we're still well below the somewhat similar (in terms of magnitude) SC20 when it comes to SSN, but well above it in terms of F10.7; here's an updated plot of 365-day averages of the F10.7 with the maxima of all the cycles:

Might tie in with how the F10.7-to-SN ratio seems to be higher than usual so far this cycle.

As you probably saw in a recent post the shorter-term average (31 days) is even closing in on that of SC23, but even if we reach that I doubt it'll be sustained long enough to beat that second long-term SC23 peak 

I would have to agree. @Philalethes  more like. Sc20.    

sc20 175 from memory

Id be very interested if @Hadeweka or @3gMikehas any opinion without going into crazy land with UPT. We realise we only have probably 22 good cycle to compare with ( excluding disputed early ones btw) I could guess Hadewekas opinions as he seemed to question any speculations on limited datasets. But he voiced some genuine knowledge of solar behavior in another thread. 

Edited August 7 by hamateur 1953
Tagged 3g. Guessing

[Cokelley]

Great info !

Yeah the 10.7 radio flux is up to 303 now and there are currently 5 sunspot regions on the earth facing disc with the BYG configuration. Nice !!

* I can't actually see any of the deltas in these regions right now but I won't question the experts lol!

Edited August 8 by Cokelley