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Unmeasured Farside Flares


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Unlike SC24 and SC25,

SC23, even though stronger than SC24 and SC25,

may have undetected flares from known active regions like 9393 (β-γ-δ), 10486 (β-γ-δ), and 10808 (β-γ-δ).

 

One example is the 2003/11/07 CME from 10486 (β-γ-δ).

Edited by faster328
Clarification
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Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, Marcel de Bont said:

Yeah? So? What is the point of this topic? I really don't get it. What do you want to discuss? You need to give more information.

If there is no STEREO or STIX or other farside satellites, and a flare occurred (example: X6-X18 flare from old AR 11564 on 20 September 2012), the flare (example: X6-X18 flare from old AR 11564 on 20 September 2012) is considered an undetected farside flare. Undetected farside flares are those flares that we couldn't measure (eg: the SXR flux). We have data for most major/halo CMEs that were associated with most farside major flares (example: X12 from old AR 13664 on 20 May 2024).

We have data for a CME on 7 November 2003 that came from old AR 10486.

Edited by faster328
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Hi, I am a long time lurker. I have to say the comments made by this person always looks like AI generated. Something to be keeping an eye on. Sorry if this type of comment is not welcome. 

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I can see one point.  It might be possible to subsequently integrate useful data into our existing databases and be able to provide a clearer overall picture of solar evolution. Because honestly we suck at it so far.  Haha.  Mike 

Edited by hamateur 1953
Imo
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13 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

I can see one point.  It might be possible to subsequently integrate useful data into our existing databases and be able to provide a clearer overall picture of solar evolution. 

If we knew what he was trying to designate as “undetected farside flares” from SC23 - perhaps… but he’s failing to adequately or correctly define “undetected” and has made no proposal as to how one might compile and assimilate data on events that were NOT detected and for which no means of detection were available or for collecting data that might now be compiled and assimilated. It’s almost as bizarre as a scientists attempting to see the past in a parallel universe without access to the parallel universe 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

maybe I’m overthinking it or I could just have brain fog - or maybe I’m just too dumb to pick up what’s being put down 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

Edited by Justanerd
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2 hours ago, brazilian said:

Hi, I am a long time lurker. I have to say the comments made by this person always looks like AI generated. Something to be keeping an eye on. Sorry if this type of comment is not welcome. 

There's a clear difference between their own speech patterns and when they've copied from a website or generated AI text. Either they've mastered English Grammer in just a couple of  weeks or it's copy paste/generated text. 

Edited by Parabolic
My Grammer is also not the greatest
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2 hours ago, Justanerd said:

What is your point?

Why are you making a new topic to “discuss” something you can’t be clear and coherent about?

Who are you trying to inform of your new - and misleading - definition of “undetected” (farside only?) flares??

Any flare that results in a CME would NOT be considered “undetected” just because it was UNCLASSIFIED as to strength or exact origin etc. Maybe you need to dumb it down a bit more for us non-intellects who don’t know what the heck your big brain is trying to express after two nonsensical attempts 🤷‍♂️

 

Sorry @Justanerd You and @Marcel de Bont are clearly sharper than me.  Mike.  🤣🤣

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4 hours ago, faster328 said:

If there is no STEREO or STIX or other farside satellites, and a flare occurred (example: X6-X18 flare from old AR 11564 on 20 September 2012), the flare (example: X6-X18 flare from old AR 11564 on 20 September 2012) is considered an undetected farside flare. Undetected farside flares are those flares that we couldn't measure (eg: the SXR flux). We have data for most major/halo CMEs that were associated with most farside major flares (example: X12 from old AR 13664 on 20 May 2024).

We have data for a CME on 7 November 2003 that came from old AR 10486.

I remember the flare on May 20, 24. From our satellites it looked like a complete halo, except going in the other direction. Cool stuff.

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On 7/31/2024 at 4:59 AM, faster328 said:

Unlike SC24 and SC25,

SC23, even though stronger than SC24 and SC25,

may have undetected flares from known active regions like 9393 (β-γ-δ), 10486 (β-γ-δ), and 10808 (β-γ-δ).

 

One example is the 2003/11/07 CME from 10486 (β-γ-δ

I don’t want to open myself up to criticism, I am not knowledgeable about the topic however the underlying point he is trying to make seems to be that advancements in solar observation technology have improved our ability to detect and record solar activities, potentially affecting our understanding of the relative strength of different solar cycles.

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56 minutes ago, WhereingtonEvent said:
On 7/31/2024 at 3:59 AM, faster328 said:

Unlike SC24 and SC25,

SC23, even though stronger than SC24 and SC25,

may have undetected flares from known active regions like 9393 (β-γ-δ), 10486 (β-γ-δ), and 10808 (β-γ-δ).

 

One example is the 2003/11/07 CME from 10486 (β-γ-δ

I don’t want to open myself up to criticism, I am not knowledgeable about the topic however the underlying point he is trying to make seems to be that advancements in solar observation technology have improved our ability to detect and record solar activities, potentially affecting our understanding of the relative strength of different solar cycles.

Yes but he seems to be wanting to review SC 23 and detect or log “undetected farside flares”… how does he propose to undo the past?? We have Stix and SoIo now and we can log data going forward - he’s proposing a nonsensical task imo - that’s all🤷‍♂️

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3 hours ago, Justanerd said:

Yes but he seems to be wanting to review SC 23 and detect or log “undetected farside flares”… how does he propose to undo the past?? We have Stix and SoIo now and we can log data going forward - he’s proposing a nonsensical task imo - that’s all🤷‍♂️

We actually do have hard x-ray observations of many farside flares from cycles 22 and 23 from the Ulysses spacecraft. Its x-ray instrument was operational from 1990 to 2003. There is a catalog of flares observed by Ulysses with estimates of the equivalent GOES XRS flux for farside flares here: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-009-9387-9

There is a good amount of uncertainty in the estimates of Ulysses farside flares, which is also true for the STIX estimates we have today.

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15 minutes ago, Aten said:

We actually do have hard x-ray observations of many farside flares from cycles 22 and 23 from the Ulysses spacecraft. Its x-ray instrument was operational from 1990 to 2003. There is a catalog of flares observed by Ulysses with estimates of the equivalent GOES XRS flux for farside flares here: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-009-9387-9

There is a good amount of uncertainty in the estimates of Ulysses farside flares, which is also true for the STIX estimates we have today.

@3gMike would probably be very interested in this @Aten if not already aware.  Mike 

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  • faster328 changed the title to Unmeasured Farside Flares
14 hours ago, Aten said:

We actually do have hard x-ray observations of many farside flares from cycles 22 and 23 from the Ulysses spacecraft. Its x-ray instrument was operational from 1990 to 2003. There is a catalog of flares observed by Ulysses with estimates of the equivalent GOES XRS flux for farside flares here: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-009-9387-9

There is a good amount of uncertainty in the estimates of Ulysses farside flares, which is also true for the STIX estimates we have today.

And again, my point being that if they were observed and we have hard data on them, then they aren’t “undetected” - or am I just not understanding the “new” meaning of undetected???

either way, I’ll let it rest - I was just trying to understand the clear-as-mud original post and no clarification came 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

2 hours ago, faster328 said:

Renamed topic for clarification.

Unmeasured farside flares is any flare that has not been measured, like the associated flare of the CME of 7 November 2003.

Thank you for clarifying! Even with stix and SoIO, our capabilities for measuring farside flares are rather limited and rudimentary by technological standards. Someday I expect we will have better, more reliable instruments watching the farside and thus, more and better data!

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 8/2/2024 at 4:57 AM, Aten said:

We actually do have hard x-ray observations of many farside flares from cycles 22 and 23 from the Ulysses spacecraft. Its x-ray instrument was operational from 1990 to 2003. There is a catalog of flares observed by Ulysses with estimates of the equivalent GOES XRS flux for farside flares here: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-009-9387-9

There is a good amount of uncertainty in the estimates of Ulysses farside flares, which is also true for the STIX estimates we have today.

According to the Ulysses catalog, the 1 June 1991 event is measured to be X100. It peaked at 15:14 UTC.

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45 minutes ago, faster328 said:

According to the Ulysses catalog, the 1 June 1991 event is measured to be X100. It peaked at 15:14 UTC.

It's listed as X12 in the paper above.

Like Aten said, the measurements can't really be compared, because the ABCMX flare-classes are specific for the flux in the wavelength of 0.1-0.8 nm, corresponding to an energy band of 1.5–12.4 keV.

The x-ray detectors onboard Ulysses, but also Solar Orbiter have different characteristics, so the measurement can't be converted 1:1, because there is a lot of variability in the flare x-ray spectrum. The lowest energy STIX (Solar orbiter) can detect, is 4 keV for example. Ulysses detector had a bandwith of 15-150 keV, vastly different than "our" flare classes.

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48 minutes ago, libmar96 said:

You might be interested in listing fastest CMEs instead using LASCO C2/C3 data. That can be measured on Earthside and farside as well.

I have always wondered how the heck they do that and if that wasn’t a good part of Jesters “ hole card” in his predictions. 😇

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