Popular Post chronical Posted July 26 Popular Post Share Posted July 26 (edited) Since all of the regions above are near each other and all have developed since two days and even more since yesterday night, I thought I'd make a topic on them, although I'm unsure if the spots that have appeared north-east of AR 13765 are part of 3765 or 3767 (could somebody confirm that please) Here are two pictures of the sunspot groups: At 00:44Z on the 26th of July At 20:11Z on the 26th of July Right now, there are no notable deltas, but if all of those sunspots keep developing we might get one if we are lucky (If one sunspot group is notably better than the others, I can change the topic to that sunspot group in particular, if necessary) Btw credits to @Adohran , because they used the color filters used on those pictures first and without them I wouldn't have found the same filters Edited July 27 by chronical Typo 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 (edited) It appears that this region is currently flaring. They’re practically one complex regardless of magnetic affiliation imo hopefully something dynamic develops from them soon. And again another new spot above 3768 the new kid today. Low latitude probably Southern Hemisphere just saw this now. Cool. Edited July 27 by hamateur 1953 More spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chronical Posted July 27 Author Share Posted July 27 (edited) 2 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said: It appears that this region is currently flaring. It now flared stronger, M4.21 And there is dimming on Å193, directed towards the north-east. Edited July 27 by chronical 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 Might as well add Region 3764 to the list. heh ........... Regions 3764 and 3766 produced an eruptive event, but not sure how eruptive so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Yohualli Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 7 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: También podríamos agregar la Región 3764 a la lista. jeje He is the son of 3664, only 100 regions in the future 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 8 minutes ago, Alan Yohualli said: He is the son of 3664, only 100 regions in the future Pretty far from the same spot, but hopefully the same chaos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chronical Posted July 27 Author Share Posted July 27 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Regions 3764 and 3766 produced an eruptive event, but not sure how eruptive so far. This looks good, you can see the shock traveling the center disk on AIA 193. I dont know about the speed though Edited July 27 by chronical 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Jesterface23 Posted July 27 Popular Post Share Posted July 27 Hmm. It think it safe to say we're going to need a better CME from this cluster. ............... Bad Sun. I said this cluster. Not a southern disk far-side region. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Yohualli Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said: Hmm. Creo que es seguro decir que vamos a necesitar un CME mejor de este grupo. ............... Sol malo. Dije este cúmulo. No es una región del lado lejano del disco del sur. He is making fun in front of our faces!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 3 hours ago, Jesterface23 said: Hmm. It think it safe to say we're going to need a better CME from this cluster. ............... Bad Sun. I said this cluster. Not a southern disk far-side region. You made m laugh out loud. But did this event produce a cme in our direction? Or nothing of note because of speed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adohran Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 4 hours ago, Alan Yohualli said: He is the son of 3664, only 100 regions in the future Infinite regions stacked on top of each other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chronical Posted July 27 Author Share Posted July 27 (edited) 7 hours ago, Jesterface23 said: Hmm. It think it safe to say we're going to need a better CME from this cluster. Yeah haha, but I do see two halos in recent coronagraph imagery. One of those could correspond to the CME produced by the M4.21 flare from this cluster, but this is unclear. NASA seems to predict a decent impact aswell unless this is a shock run. It is quite early in the matter and the CMEs are mixed up so this might be totally off. Edited July 27 by chronical 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 27 minutes ago, chronical said: Yeah haha, but I do see two halos in recent coronagraph imagery. One of those could correspond to the CME produced by the M4.21 flare from this cluster, but this is unclear. NASA seems to predict a decent impact aswell unless this is a shock run. It is quite early in the matter and the CMEs are mixed up so this might be totally off. where did you take the run from, is there a link to the run? it often states run time and ifi ts a shock model. this does look like the shock run for yesterday that i saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chronical Posted July 27 Author Share Posted July 27 (edited) 9 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: where did you take the run from, is there a link to the run? it often states run time and ifi ts a shock model. this does look like the shock run for yesterday that i saw. I take them from SolarHam because I never found the "real link". If I could have a source that states wether it is a shock run or not, I’d be happy to have it Edited July 27 by chronical typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malisha Reuvekamp Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 4 minuten geleden, chronical zei: I take them from SolarHam because I never found the "real link". If I could have a source that states wether it is a shock run or not, I’d be happy to have it Ha, I cant tell the difference either. I have the link with all models, but have not found any clue pointing at which is which. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
auclectic Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 49 minutes ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said: Ha, I cant tell the difference either. I have the link with all models, but have not found any clue pointing at which is which 49 minutes ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said: Ha, I cant tell the difference either. I have the link with all models, but have not found any clue pointing at which is which Idk if these help, but it's the NOAA dashboard and NASA imagery which I usually check out https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusiasts-dashboard https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/aiahmi/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parabolic Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 50 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: where did you take the run from, is there a link to the run? it often states run time and ifi ts a shock model. this does look like the shock run for yesterday that i saw. https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/ click on browse, drop down Events, and click on WSA-Cone model CME evolution for events. You'll see options at the top of the box that allow you to pick density, velocity, and dynamic pressure, models with just Earth or with inner planets (or STEREO A/B lol), and lastly you can change the view from 2.0 AU to 5.5 AU but 2.0 is what we normally see. Click the back button to view each model run or type in a specific date. Here's a screen shot to help. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malisha Reuvekamp Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 (edited) 24 minuten geleden, auclectic zei: Idk if these help, but it's the NOAA dashboard and NASA imagery which I usually check out https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusiasts-dashboard https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/aiahmi/ Thx for the tip. But I find it a hard waiting game till NOAA updates its model. And thx parabolic. I will definitely try again later as I really have to clean up my phone before most iswa things will work. 🤭 Edited July 27 by Malisha Reuvekamp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parabolic Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 4 minutes ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said: Thx for the tip. But I find it a hard waiting game till NOAA updates its model. And thx parabolic. I will definitely try again later as I really have to clean up my phone before most iswa things will work. 🤭 Have you tried the site in the last month or so? They revamped the whole page to be a little more mobile friendly (as far as page loading goes). However, saving layouts and loading layouts is tedious. Now you have to download a JSON file for saving/loading layouts (there was some pre-made ones but I forgot where that page is). As opposed to the site creating a URL that allowed you to bookmark it instead. Oops I think I'm going off on a tangent 😅 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malisha Reuvekamp Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 (edited) 7 minuten geleden, Parabolic zei: Have you tried the site in the last month or so? They revamped the whole page to be a little more mobile friendly (as far as page loading goes). However, saving layouts and loading layouts is tedious. Now you have to download a JSON file for saving/loading layouts (there was some pre-made ones but I forgot where that page is). As opposed to the site creating a URL that allowed you to bookmark it instead. Oops I think I'm going off on a tangent 😅 No, I did not use it for months, since waiting ages for something to appear on my Phone, isn't really my thing. 😂 It already works on my phone for as far as I can tell! I was thinking, hey stupid I did not find that website before. 🤪 Very nice changes. Edited July 27 by Malisha Reuvekamp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Popular Post Tony Iampietro Posted July 27 Solution Popular Post Share Posted July 27 (edited) 2 hours ago, chronical said: I take them from SolarHam because I never found the "real link". If I could have a source that states wether it is a shock run or not, I’d be happy to have it Hello yes! Can help with this one, quite a complex few hours on the sun here. Kept me up😄love to see all this activity! Refer to SWPC for the official forecasts! https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ *DONKI is open for the community but primarily used for research purposes and model development, not meant to be used for alerts for the public. It is a good resource for space weather awareness, but again SWPC is the resource of alerts. That specific run is actually some faint features from yesterday that were observed prior to the two, more crisp halos this morning (what timing...), combined into one simulation for potential impacts. That information can be found on iSWA or DONKI (DONKI will point which CMEs are included, which is nice): https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32229/1 And if it is a shock, we will typically note it in that DONKI note with something like: "this is a shock measurement, see bulk for impacts". Or, the CME Analysis will always use the "SH" code instead of "LE". That is a good resource to distinguish between which simulations are shocks vs bulk portions of the CME. For instance, these 3 CMEs are all simulated as "LE" and not a shock. Those other events from this morning may differ in their own entries as analysis is completed, likely with a shock measurement you'd see simulated as "SH" in the mix. An example from CME Analysis page on where to see this: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CMEAnalysis/32224/1 Hope this helps, and happy to toot our horn about DONKI! 😁 https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/search/ Edited July 27 by Tony Iampietro 4 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 It wouldn’t surprise me due to differential rotation to see a really cool cme from this mess at center stage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 13 minutes ago, Tony Iampietro said: Hello yes! Can help with this one, quite a complex few hours on the sun here. Kept me up😄love to see all this activity! Refer to SWPC for the official forecasts! https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ That specific run is actually some faint features from yesterday that were observed prior to the two, more crisp halos this morning (what timing...), combined into one simulation for potential impacts. That information can be found on iSWA or DONKI (DONKI will point which CMEs are included, which is nice): https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32229/1 And if it is a shock, we will typically note it in that DONKI note with something like: "this is a shock measurement, see bulk for impacts". Or, the CME Analysis will always use the "SH" code instead of "LE". That is a good resource to distinguish between which simulations are shocks vs bulk portions of the CME. For instance, these 3 CMEs are all simulated as "LE" and not a shock. Those other events from this morning may differ in their own entries as analysis is completed, likely with a shock measurement you'd see simulated as "SH" in the mix. An example from CME Analysis page on where to see this: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CMEAnalysis/32224/1 Hope this helps, and happy to toot our horn about DONKI! 😁 https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/search/ Thank you for the great explanation Tony! Its cool to have you here! So that run is not a real forecast? I saw two runs, one with KP 4-5 and one with 5-7. I love to use the CME scoreboard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Iampietro Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 (edited) 22 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Thank you for the great explanation Tony! Its cool to have you here! So that run is not a real forecast? I saw two runs, one with KP 4-5 and one with 5-7. I love to use the CME scoreboard. Happy to be here! And be a part of this solar mess haha, fun times! Important from DONKI: If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly. Our analysis is done to support NASA human and robotics missions, for the official forecasts look at SWPC. As for the different Kp runs from M2M, as part of the analysis we sometimes simulate CMEs alone and then together to see how they interact with each other (ie, faster one may catch up or a leading one may "clear the way" for a second one to travel differently). A notable example of that is the May storms - ENLIL went through the wringer! 😅 https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30652/1 *DONKI is open for the community but primarily used for research purposes and model development, not meant to be used for alerts for the public. It is a good resource for space weather awareness, but again SWPC is the resource of alerts. Edited July 27 by Tony Iampietro 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chronical Posted July 27 Author Share Posted July 27 24 minutes ago, Tony Iampietro said: Hello yes! Can help with this one, quite a complex few hours on the sun here. Kept me up😄love to see all this activity! That specific run is actually some faint features from yesterday that were observed prior to the two, more crisp halos this morning (what timing...), combined into one simulation for potential impacts. That information can be found on iSWA or DONKI (DONKI will point which CMEs are included, which is nice): https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32229/1 And if it is a shock, we will typically note it in that DONKI note with something like: "this is a shock measurement, see bulk for impacts". Or, the CME measurement will always use the "SH" code instead of "LE". That is a good resource to distinguish between which simulations are shocks vs bulk portions of the CME. For instance, these 3 CMEs are all simulated as "LE" and not a shock. Those other events from this morning may differ in their own entries as analysis is completed, likely with a shock measurement you'd see simulated as "SH" in the mix. Hope this helps, and happy to toot our horn about DONKI! 😁 https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/search/ That's awesome, thank you so much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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