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BGIC Index - Historical Comparison - Halloween 2003 vs May 2024 storms


Indrid Cold

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Thought I would share some new data I just came across for anyone interested. And especially for our friends over in the UK.

BGIC Index - May 2024 storms

May2024SS-BGIG_index.thumb.png.80746d7059374e1c3c6f16829c84e432.png

BGIC Index - Oct 2003 Storms

Oct2003SS-BGIC_index.thumb.png.0b8bd2a93f12d47e1f837319c7d80236.png

For those that aren't familiar with this index, the unit of DeltaB on the left is measured in nanoTesla (nT). This index does not directly measure GIC instead its a model designed to indicate when GIC values may be higher in the UK grid. Halloween 2003 clearly shows a sharp higher peak although May 2024 seems to show periods of slightly higher sustained disturbance over time. 

Daily values for the index can be found here

https://geomag.bgs.ac.uk/data_service/space_weather/gic_services.html

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On 7/10/2024 at 6:57 AM, Indrid Cold said:

Thought I would share some new data I just came across for anyone interested. And especially for our friends over in the UK.

BGIC Index - May 2024 storms

May2024SS-BGIG_index.thumb.png.80746d7059374e1c3c6f16829c84e432.png

BGIC Index - Oct 2003 Storms

Oct2003SS-BGIC_index.thumb.png.0b8bd2a93f12d47e1f837319c7d80236.png

For those that aren't familiar with this index, the unit of DeltaB on the left is measured in nanoTesla (nT). This index does not directly measure GIC instead its a model designed to indicate when GIC values may be higher in the UK grid. Halloween 2003 clearly shows a sharp higher peak although May 2024 seems to show periods of slightly higher sustained disturbance over time. 

Daily values for the index can be found here

https://geomag.bgs.ac.uk/data_service/space_weather/gic_services.html

Very interesting @Indrid Cold   I was deep reading into another event (1989) The power companies decided that part of the issues they experienced were due to lower conductivity of the soils along the east coast of North America.  It was internal or Id post a link here.  Another member here brought up a very interesting point also that I hadn’t considered .  Our continuing increase of Non-Linear devices. ( automobile chargers etc) is possibly causing more issues than we had foreseen.  In either event they are better prepared than ever before in the United States. 

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Yeah those storms from 1989 were rough. Interesting thing about the 1989 storms studies have revealed the blackout in Quebec happened when the Dst was only at -138nT. That translates to about Kp7. While its true grid components were not as hardened and robust as they are today compared to 1989, there are still highly variable electromagnetic processes at play above and below our feet, that vary from region to region.

For instance, the storms of 2003 produced lower variations in deltaB and dB/dt intensity at mid-latitude locations, than the storms of 1989. At equatorial locations however, there was a period of moderate dB/dt which exceeded that of the 1989 storms. Consequently there were reports of permanent transformer damage in South Africa from the 2003 storms.

Most of the time we think in terms of when the main phase depression hits the lowest peak on the Dst, or when we’re at Kp9, that’s when the lights may go out. While that’s still true, a different lesson was learned as a result of the storms of 1989 and even more lessons learned from 2003 which I hope has carried over to modern day grid design code.

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