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Sunspot 3664/ May 5?


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This is from Solarham... The official NASA explanation

As we prepare to say goodbye to AR 3664 (3697) for the second time, below is a look back at the formerly massive sunspot region over the past nearly six weeks. After first turning into view on May 1st, it would continue to grow and go on to produce twelve X-Flares during the first transit. After rotating onto the farside of the Sun on May 14th, it would reappear again on May 28th. Another five X-Flares were detected during the second transit, bringing the total to 17. A pretty impressive run! Of course there was also the energetic M9.7 flare early Saturday morning which produced a bright CME that is expected to deliver a glancing blow to our geomagnetic field within the next 24 hours. The chances of surviving the trek around the farside yet again is likely much smaller, but we will see later this month. So long for now!

However... Solen Info disagrees completely and states that the bulk was born on May 5...

https://solen.info/solar/old_reports/

 

I do this thread seperate from Unproven theories because I want to find which explanation fits the best...

May 5 New region S9676 [S19E22] emerged with several spots.

May 6 S9676 [S19E07] developed very quickly and began interacting with both ARs 13668 and 13664. Major flaring is possible as a significant magnetic delta formed in the southernmost spot section as well as with the trailing spots of AR 13664.

May 7 S9676 [S20W07] developed quickly and merged with what was formerly the trailing spots of AR 13664. Due to extreme complexity and many magnetic delta configurations the spot group flares almost continuously. Major flares are possible. This is currently the largest spot group in area of SC25.

May 8 S9676 [S20W21] developed further and is a huge, very complex spot group with X10+ flare potential. The region has many magnetic delta structures and has caused the background xray flux to stay above the M1.0 level most of the time since late on May 7.

May 9 S9676 [S20W33] merged with AR 13668 and the trailing spots of AR 13664. This spot group is one of the largest of the last solar cycles and certainly one of the most complex with many strong magnetic delta configurations. An X10+ flare is possible. Very frequent flaring continued with a slight reduction in the background xray flux.

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1 uur terug, Patrick P.A. Geryl zei:

This is from Solarham... The official NASA explanation

As we prepare to say goodbye to AR 3664 (3697) for the second time, below is a look back at the formerly massive sunspot region over the past nearly six weeks. After first turning into view on May 1st, it would continue to grow and go on to produce twelve X-Flares during the first transit. After rotating onto the farside of the Sun on May 14th, it would reappear again on May 28th. Another five X-Flares were detected during the second transit, bringing the total to 17. A pretty impressive run! Of course there was also the energetic M9.7 flare early Saturday morning which produced a bright CME that is expected to deliver a glancing blow to our geomagnetic field within the next 24 hours. The chances of surviving the trek around the farside yet again is likely much smaller, but we will see later this month. So long for now!

However... Solen Info disagrees completely and states that the bulk was born on May 5...

https://solen.info/solar/old_reports/

 

I do this thread seperate from Unproven theories because I want to find which explanation fits the best...

May 5 New region S9676 [S19E22] emerged with several spots.

May 6 S9676 [S19E07] developed very quickly and began interacting with both ARs 13668 and 13664. Major flaring is possible as a significant magnetic delta formed in the southernmost spot section as well as with the trailing spots of AR 13664.

May 7 S9676 [S20W07] developed quickly and merged with what was formerly the trailing spots of AR 13664. Due to extreme complexity and many magnetic delta configurations the spot group flares almost continuously. Major flares are possible. This is currently the largest spot group in area of SC25.

May 8 S9676 [S20W21] developed further and is a huge, very complex spot group with X10+ flare potential. The region has many magnetic delta structures and has caused the background xray flux to stay above the M1.0 level most of the time since late on May 7.

May 9 S9676 [S20W33] merged with AR 13668 and the trailing spots of AR 13664. This spot group is one of the largest of the last solar cycles and certainly one of the most complex with many strong magnetic delta configurations. An X10+ flare is possible. Very frequent flaring continued with a slight reduction in the background xray flux.

Hey @Jesterface23 You gave a wrong answer in unproven theories ...

@Philalethes Seems you have a major problem because the day of birth confirms my theory

@Hadeweka Join the conversation... Who is right? NASA or Solen?

@hamateur 1953 Always criticizing... Who is right? 

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4 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:
1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

This is from Solarham... The official NASA explanation

As we prepare to say goodbye to AR 3664 (3697) for the second time, below is a look back at the formerly massive sunspot region over the past nearly six weeks. After first turning into view on May 1st, it would continue to grow and go on to produce twelve X-Flares during the first transit. After rotating onto the farside of the Sun on May 14th, it would reappear again on May 28th. Another five X-Flares were detected during the second transit, bringing the total to 17. A pretty impressive run! Of course there was also the energetic M9.7 flare early Saturday morning which produced a bright CME that is expected to deliver a glancing blow to our geomagnetic field within the next 24 hours. The chances of surviving the trek around the farside yet again is likely much smaller, but we will see later this month. So long for now!

However... Solen Info disagrees completely and states that the bulk was born on May 5...

https://solen.info/solar/old_reports/

 

I do this thread seperate from Unproven theories because I want to find which explanation fits the best...

May 5 New region S9676 [S19E22] emerged with several spots.

May 6 S9676 [S19E07] developed very quickly and began interacting with both ARs 13668 and 13664. Major flaring is possible as a significant magnetic delta formed in the southernmost spot section as well as with the trailing spots of AR 13664.

May 7 S9676 [S20W07] developed quickly and merged with what was formerly the trailing spots of AR 13664. Due to extreme complexity and many magnetic delta configurations the spot group flares almost continuously. Major flares are possible. This is currently the largest spot group in area of SC25.

May 8 S9676 [S20W21] developed further and is a huge, very complex spot group with X10+ flare potential. The region has many magnetic delta structures and has caused the background xray flux to stay above the M1.0 level most of the time since late on May 7.

May 9 S9676 [S20W33] merged with AR 13668 and the trailing spots of AR 13664. This spot group is one of the largest of the last solar cycles and certainly one of the most complex with many strong magnetic delta configurations. An X10+ flare is possible. Very frequent flaring continued with a slight reduction in the background xray flux.

Hey @Jesterface23 You gave a wrong answer in unproven theories ...

Well, this will be merged into that topic, or this one closed. You are sending the wrong data, so you can't blame me that you trust the relatively shot range of data that Solen has.

Now, don't turn into this.

adam savage mythbusters GIF

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Posted (edited)
4 minuten geleden, Jesterface23 zei:

Well, this will be merged into that topic, or this one closed. You are sending the wrong data, so you can't blame me that you trust the relatively shot range of data that Solen has.

Now, don't turn into this.

adam savage mythbusters GIF

This doesn't belong in Unproven theories. THIS IS A MAJOR PROBLEM. Who is right?

Right... We have one of the best in the world ... the only one who works with high resolution sunspots... and whithout even seeing the evidence... you reject it...

Edited by Patrick P.A. Geryl
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4 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Right... We have one of the best in the world ... the only one who works with high resolution sunspots... and whithout even seeing the evidence... you reject it...

You reject science. You are committed to Solen's data even though more data can be found all around you. SOHO's HDI Continuum and Magnetogram imagery goes back to the mid 1990s. It isn't like you will be missing anything rather than tiny spots.

Edited by Jesterface23
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4 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

This is an important question... Do you know a specialist who can give his opinion?

AR_13664_20240506_2345.png

Even at that. If region 3664 didn't exist, the complexity would have been far lower. Then what odds would it be that you try to place it on a different sunspot region?

Edited by Jesterface23
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10 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

It is always the same... You reject something whithout looking at the evidence... 

AR_S9676_20240508_2345.png

This green line is actually closer as a boundary of the two areas after taking careful observations. It is possible more of it could be 3664, but the below is just the minimum of the boundary line.

image.png.1f908cb6bcc5a4af2b744f50b0d9854e.png

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Perhaps if you could find an image of the 1st and the 5th side by side and say why you believe the 5th is more significant than the 1st as the exact starting point we may be clearer about what your exact point is .

 

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Just now, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

blablabla.. When will you finally research something like you should?

AR_S9676_20240509_2345.png

I've look over this region more times than you can count and it's not like I'm new to it. It seems I have far more experience than you do.

Now just move on. This topic will end up getting locked or deleted. 

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11 minuten geleden, Jesterface23 zei:

I've look over this region more times than you can count and it's not like I'm new to it. It seems I have far more experience than you do.

Now just move on. This topic will end up getting locked or deleted. 

There is no reason it should be deleted. This is an important question: is NASA capable of naming sunspots?

it seems not… And you can’t either. 

14 minuten geleden, Alphane zei:

Both those images show data from the 9th . If you want an opinion regarding the data of the 5th and the 1st perhaps you be kind enough to post images of both 

You have the link and can post by yourself

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10 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

This is an important question: is NASA capable of naming sunspots?

Well, that would have been important to ask if you wanted an answer. Given the areas merged, they certainly made the right call in giving all of it a single number ID.

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On investigation both archives agree at 3664 excited on the 1st . The Solen and space weather live 

As far as report comparing goes they seem to focus on different aspects of the sunspot , first one more it's flaring the second discussed more it's interaction and growth . Difficult to say one is a better assessment than the other given that 

Edited by Alphane
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3 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

May 5 New region S9676 [S19E22] emerged with several spots.

May 6 S9676 [S19E07] developed very quickly and began interacting with both ARs 13668 and 13664. Major flaring is possible as a significant magnetic delta formed in the southernmost spot section as well as with the trailing spots of AR 13664.

May 7 S9676 [S20W07] developed quickly and merged with what was formerly the trailing spots of AR 13664. Due to extreme complexity and many magnetic delta configurations the spot group flares almost continuously. Major flares are possible. This is currently the largest spot group in area of SC25.

May 8 S9676 [S20W21] developed further and is a huge, very complex spot group with X10+ flare potential. The region has many magnetic delta structures and has caused the background xray flux to stay above the M1.0 level most of the time since late on May 7.

May 9 S9676 [S20W33] merged with AR 13668 and the trailing spots of AR 13664. This spot group is one of the largest of the last solar cycles and certainly one of the most complex with many strong magnetic delta configurations. An X10+ flare is possible. Very frequent flaring continued with a slight reduction in the background xray flux.

I would somewhat agree with this, but it would still be we wouldn't know the complexity if S9676 had nothing to merge with other than it likely would have been less complex. I don't want this to switch back around to sunspot forecasting.

 

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Posted (edited)
16 minuten geleden, Jesterface23 zei:

I would somewhat agree with this, but it would still be we wouldn't know the complexity if S9676 had nothing to merge with other than it likely would have been less complex. I don't want this to switch back around to sunspot forecasting.

 

The discussion is that NASA puts a number on a sunspot that was born on May 5. That is the discussion. Point. 

In unproven theories somebody says that I am wrong and the parrots jump in to destroy my argument. Can't happen here

1 uur terug, Alphane zei:

On investigation both archives agree at 3664 excited on the 1st . The Solen and space weather live 

As far as report comparing goes they seem to focus on different aspects of the sunspot , first one more it's flaring the second discussed more it's interaction and growth . Difficult to say one is a better assessment than the other given that 

See above

Edited by Patrick P.A. Geryl
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9 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

The discussion is that NASA puts a number on a sunspot that was born on May 5. That is the discussion. Point. 

I do need say sorry in this one, though some of my points still stand.

Once the SWPC un-numered region fully mered with 3664, there was no telling which was which and wound have likeky be given a single numer anyways. Maybe the SWPC knew something we didn't know when it came up on the 5th.

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5 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

I do this thread seperate from Unproven theories because I want to find which explanation fits the best...

At least be honest with us - the ONLY reason you started this thread was to argue with others and make another attempt to show your “superior” intelligence - you’ve already made up your mind which history and explanation “fits the best” and no matter which explanation anyone chooses to defend, you will have an argument to prove they are wrong. So bizarre!

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And let us not forget that his entire theory was finally and successfully acknowledged as being invalid in unproven theories.  And even given an award for this by our moderator @Sam Warfel  thank you all of the rest of the crowd for your patience in finally putting an end to this silliness.  Mike.  Advise Patrick to check @Philalethes post which show the solution to his dilemma. 

Edited by hamateur 1953
Solution
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1 uur terug, Justanerd zei:

At least be honest with us - the ONLY reason you started this thread was to argue with others and make another attempt to show your “superior” intelligence - you’ve already made up your mind which history and explanation “fits the best” and no matter which explanation anyone chooses to defend, you will have an argument to prove they are wrong. So bizarre!

It is Solen against NASA

14 minuten geleden, hamateur 1953 zei:

And let us not forget that his entire theory was finally and successfully acknowledged as being invalid in unproven theories.  And even given an award for this by our moderator @Sam Warfel  thank you all of the rest of the crowd for your patience in finally putting an end to this silliness.  Mike.  Advise Patrick to check @Philalethes post which show the solution to his dilemma. 

Stay to the thread. Solen or NASA?

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6 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

I would somewhat agree with this, but it would still be we wouldn't know the complexity if S9676 had nothing to merge with other than it likely would have been less complex. I don't want this to switch back around to sunspot forecasting.

2 hours ago, Hadeweka said:

Essentially, it seems to me that you are trying too hard to separate these two regions. NASA unifies tham as a single region, which is physically more correct, as they were interacting directly with each other.

It takes two to tango, as they say. Meanwhile the spots were all dancing to the music of the spheres that had been playing for a week or so at that point, continuing to increase in a crescendo over those weeks, culminating in a powerful sforzando on May 14 before a soaring recapitulation until May 20. Just look at the peak on May 14, when the X8.8 happened:

Quote
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
May 14, 2024
------------
2024-04-14T17:15Z to 2024-07-01T00:00Z   Juno-Sol-Camilla               points: 26 * 1.4 = 36.4
2024-04-23T18:30Z to 2024-05-20T16:00Z   Uranus-Camilla-Europa          points:  9 * 1.0 =  9.0
2024-04-27T23:45Z to 2024-05-23T00:45Z   Sol-Camilla-Neptune            points: 31 * 1.5 = 46.5
2024-04-30T14:15Z to 2024-05-23T05:45Z   Neptune-Camilla-Juno           points:  8 * 1.0 =  8.0
2024-05-02T19:30Z to 2024-05-23T22:15Z   Neptune-Sol-Juno               points: 31 * 1.5 = 46.5
2024-05-08T22:30Z to 2024-05-14T16:15Z   Pluto-Mercury-Vesta            points: 10 * 1.1 = 11.0
2024-05-10T13:45Z to 2024-05-14T16:00Z   Earth-Mars-Camilla             points:  9 * 1.0 =  9.0
2024-05-11T07:30Z to 2024-05-15T11:15Z   Earth-Sol-Uranus               points: 35 * 1.7 = 59.5
2024-05-14T03:30Z to 2024-06-08T13:30Z   Saturn-Hygiea-Hektor           points: 11 * 1.1 = 12.1
2024-05-14T18:15Z to 2024-05-20T10:30Z   Sol-Mars-Saturn                points: 36 * 1.7 = 61.2
                                                                           sum:           299.2
number of triples: 10                                               multiplier:         *   6.3
                                                                   GRAND TOTAL:          1885.0
prognosis:

Many great alignments. The spheres pour forth beautiful and enchanting polyphony. Strong effect on Solar activity.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My theory prevails once again! 🤩

Edited by Philalethes
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@Hadeweka While you are feeding the troll here, which i usually wouldnt suggest, this was one hell of an interesting explanation.

So did i understand this correctly, if two seperate regions directly interact with one another, i.e. sharing loops, magnetic anomalies or are just incredibly close to each other where they become visibly indistinguishable, they are drawn together and numbered as a single unit? 

Edited by JaiGalaar
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