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AR 3691


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Posted (edited)

We all hope this region will resume its high-level activity soon.  Nothing much yet.  

This region was formerly AR 3663 if y’all are playing catch-up. Mike 

Edited by hamateur 1953
AR identified incorrectly
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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, Ingolf said:

I was wondering who will open the thread before it's officially named. I was thinking between @hamateur 1953and @arjemma. You made the race Mike. And my day, too.

Greetings and hopefully a lot of posts here. 

Howdy. Well presently I’m a bit disappointed. And SFI is likely to plunge for a few days as 3679 and his buddies rotate away for now. But still expecting some activity from this region. And old 3664 due soon also.  Later, Mike/Hagrid. 

Edited by hamateur 1953
Error in AR
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Just now, hamateur 1953 said:

Howdy. Well presently I’m a bit disappointed. And SFI is likely to plunge for a few days as 3679 and his buddies rotate away for now. But still expecting some activity from this region. And old 3684 due soon also.  Later, Mike/Hagrid. 

So many sunspots, it's absolutely okay to write the wrong number 🫡 I guess you mean 3664 not 84. I just had a look at AIA 171 and I think there are already the loops of former 3664 visible. This will gonna be two really interesting weeks. 

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Posted (edited)

Funny I was editing as you caught it.  Haha. Plus I am learning where the most recent posting of official AR is likely to be viewed Albiet the hard way.  Haha.   As Kevin ( solar ham) has noted it has decayed on the backside. But being at a higher latitude than 3664 was it has less chance statistically speaking of whacking us with a cme anyway. ( trying to save face here. 🤣🤣). 

Edited by hamateur 1953
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1 hour ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Funny I was editing as you caught it.  Haha. Plus I am learning where the most recent posting of official AR is likely to be viewed Albiet the hard way.  Haha.   As Kevin ( solar ham) has noted it has decayed on the backside. But being at a higher latitude than 3664 was it has less chance statistically speaking of whacking us with a cme anyway. ( trying to save face here. 🤣🤣). 

I wrote @MinYoongi the other day that I am afraid that one of the promising regions may decay, that was after that big farside 10+ x flare. As far as I know it is possible that a active region kill itself with a big eruption.

The 3691 still looks huge when I compare it with that tiny 3690 below.  

I am still positive minded about that region. 

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Posted (edited)

Me too.  Regions can and do increase in complexity even when losing spots and area. Although typically you may see the spot count decrease and surface area remain constant.  It’s pretty hard thing predicting the future evolution of regions! 

Edited by hamateur 1953
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Static Solar X-ray Average is rising again, presumable because of 3663/3691 rotating back in more fully.

(little help from the already active return of 3664 off the horizon)

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I wonder how reliable imagery is. Probably needs another day or so until the limb is not interfering with distortion?

I think it grew since yesterday but it’s always hard to say for sure because yesterday it was still hard to see due to even more limb closeness

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46 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

I wonder how reliable imagery is. Probably needs another day or so until the limb is not interfering with distortion?

I think it grew since yesterday but it’s always hard to say for sure because yesterday it was still hard to see due to even more limb closeness

It's maintained some shear since yesterday. I think it's in the process of evolution and could possibly strengthen.

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5 hours ago, Parabolic said:

It's maintained some shear since yesterday. I think it's in the process of evolution and could possibly strengthen.

Interesting! 

 

6 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Currently listed as a bgd. Small delta (think) Along the top of leading positive. Just kicked out a small C. Size only 300 listed as active now. 

The delta is in the top right part, right? It’s always harder with limb regions

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6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Interesting! 

 

The delta is in the top right part, right? It’s always harder with limb regions

Yes, I believe so.  Although i’m lousy at delta identifying unless it is really obvious. 

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5 hours ago, Parabolic said:

Looks like AR3691 is coming along very well, shear appearing a little quicker than yesterday.

https://postimg.cc/qgt7h0KJ

I still wonder how reliable those maps are. @Philalethes since you found them, do you have a guess/gut feeling?

19 minutes ago, mozy said:

Slow rising M-flare from this region now, currently at M3.4

nice!

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3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

I still wonder how reliable those maps are. @Philalethes since you found them, do you have a guess/gut feeling?

There is some shear there, mostly near the top arrow in the image @Parabolic posted as far as I can tell, and a bit to the upper left of it. For the right arrow I can see what could be some shear, but the negative field seems to be very weak there; for the bottom and left arrows I don't think it makes that much sense to consider there to be much shear there given how there's almost no negative field there at all, but maybe they can explain their thought process there.

The only part of the region where I'd say there is significant shear is that first one, here:

shear.png

This seems to check out with where the closest thing to a delta is too.

It should be noted that that image is from late yesterday (05-28T23Z), and that DeFN currently is unable to download new ones for some reason, so it's not an up-to-date view.

Overall it doesn't look all that exciting for now, but there isn't much else to keep an eye on other than 3697, heh.

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8 hours ago, Philalethes said:

There is some shear there, mostly near the top arrow in the image @Parabolic posted as far as I can tell, and a bit to the upper left of it. For the right arrow I can see what could be some shear, but the negative field seems to be very weak there; for the bottom and left arrows I don't think it makes that much sense to consider there to be much shear there given how there's almost no negative field there at all, but maybe they can explain their thought process there.

The only part of the region where I'd say there is significant shear is that first one, here:

shear.png

This seems to check out with where the closest thing to a delta is too.

It should be noted that that image is from late yesterday (05-28T23Z), and that DeFN currently is unable to download new ones for some reason, so it's not an up-to-date view.

Overall it doesn't look all that exciting for now, but there isn't much else to keep an eye on other than 3697, heh.

It has started to lose quite a bit of shear in the past 3 hours. It seems like some trailing spots also decayed. It might just be minor separation  and consolidating to, it's slow and makes it hard for me determine.

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