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AR 3676


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This one sprung up pretty quickly at the same latitude as 3664. Within a day it got a β-γ classification and now it looks like there's a small delta right in the middle. I'm hoping it follows in it's big brother's footsteps. So far, it's looking promising.

Edited by cgrant26
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3 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Agreed. Funny I was gonna do one for one of the two new guys also.  You’re correct imo on the delta but it looks weird too.  Mike 

Why weird ?

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It appears that the highest probability of large CMEs occur when the active regions are on a relatively small positive region surrounded by a large negative region and the active regions are consuming the positive regions. 3676 looks like it is consuming the positive region that narrowly bridges 2 negative regions. With an abundance of positive region, there's very little chance of large activity(50/10/1) as consumption of the positive would have to envelop a region of the positive and isolate it. If anything the large negative region will merge with the smaller negative region housing 3676, and split 3676 or eliminate it with no large activity. 3673 and 3674, however, look ready to receive a mass of positive region and isolate it from its parent region.

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In the wake of 3664 does sunspot 3676 which was beta/gamma up until yesterday (I think🙄) and now beta/gamma/delta look like it may become another FKC sunspot like 3364? 🤔

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9 hours ago, Helliarc said:

It appears that the highest probability of large CMEs occur when the active regions are on a relatively small positive region surrounded by a large negative region and the active regions are consuming the positive regions. 3676 looks like it is consuming the positive region that narrowly bridges 2 negative regions. With an abundance of positive region, there's very little chance of large activity(50/10/1) as consumption of the positive would have to envelop a region of the positive and isolate it. If anything the large negative region will merge with the smaller negative region housing 3676, and split 3676 or eliminate it with no large activity. 3673 and 3674, however, look ready to receive a mass of positive region and isolate it from its parent region.

I've been expecting 367

I've been expecting 3673 and 3674 to merge any time now actually 👍 

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16 hours ago, cgrant26 said:

This one sprung up pretty quickly at the same latitude as 3664. Within a day it got a β-γ classification and now it looks like there's a small delta right in the middle. I'm hoping it follows in it's big brother's footsteps. So far, it's looking promising.

Maybe a "Hot Longitude" is the reason for growing? 

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24 minutes ago, Ingolf said:

Maybe a "Hot Longitude" is the reason for growing? 

You’re not the first to wonder about this.  Not scary btw but more potential fun for us imo. 

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4 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

You’re not the first to wonder about this.  Not scary btw but more potential fun for us imo. 

Absolutely agree. Mother earth showed us that she can still handle big Storms. And the grid, too. So let's be excited and fingers crossed for some more shows. Hopefully this time with less scared people. 

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1 minute ago, Ingolf said:

Absolutely agree. Mother earth showed us that she can still handle big Storms. And the grid, too. So let's be excited and fingers crossed for some more shows. Hopefully this time with less scared people. 

Apologies @Ingolf  I forgot ya know most of this stuff.  You’re in Germany I think?  Mike 

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5 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

You’re not the first to wonder about this.  Not scary btw but more potential fun for us imo. 

Is there a recommended reading source to make sense of how they determine the attributes of all this stuff that isn't too calculus centric? All the papers go into necessary but excruciating detail and I'd like a working knowledge and vocabulary first. All of the reading material I've found so far is either too complex or too "lite".

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Helliarc said:

Is there a recommended reading source to make sense of how they determine the attributes of all this stuff that isn't too calculus centric? All the papers go into necessary but excruciating detail and I'd like a working knowledge and vocabulary first. All of the reading material I've found so far is either too complex or too "lite".

An excellent primer might be the interesting four hour class. I will pull it forward on an edit. 

I feel much like you do, especially when reading extended explanations sometimes. The net amount of real scientific knowledge available here is humbling to me most times indeed. Mike. 

Edited by hamateur 1953
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20 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Apologies @Ingolf  I forgot ya know most of this stuff.  You’re in Germany I think?  Mike 

Yes Sir 🫡 close to Belgium and Netherland border. 

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2 hours ago, Ingolf said:

Maybe a "Hot Longitude" is the reason for growing? 

After Dr.Tamitha Skov referenced "Hot Longitudes" I've slowly but surely have been gathering data on the subject. Hopefully I can successfully present this theory with enough information to get others interested. Im sort of stuck on magnetohydrodynamic processes at the moment.

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7 hours ago, cgrant26 said:

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/help/the-magnetic-classification-of-sunspots.html

In a nutshelll, areas of opposite polarity in close proximity and with a shared penumbra.

I hesitate to give that link to people. While everything there is correct, it seems like the creator of that page was doing their very best to confuse the reader.  Haha.

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48 minutes ago, Parabolic said:

After Dr.Tamitha Skov referenced "Hot Longitudes" I've slowly but surely have been gathering data on the subject. Hopefully I can successfully present this theory with enough information to get others interested. Im sort of stuck on magnetohydrodynamic processes at the moment.

I would really appreciate it. She mentioned it couple weeks ago and two days ago again. I have no clue what this means but I would love to read about it in the unproven theory thread. And the thread would become more interesting than the last 8 weeks 🙈 

 

Thanks in advance for your work. 

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