Jump to content

Where will Aurorae be visible on May 11th after the G5 storm?


Recommended Posts

I fell asleep last night before I could observe any auroral activity. I live near Louisville Kentucky; is it possible that I could see anything on the night of May 11th/Morning of May 12th?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Carrington45X said:

I fell asleep last night before I could observe any auroral activity. I live near Louisville Kentucky; is it possible that I could see anything on the night of May 11th/Morning of May 12th?

It's not something that can be guaranteed that far out more line an hour in advance. There are a lot of factors that interact but the short answer is yes it's possible.

Just a (kind) note as you and many are new this isn't the exactly type of forum to come and ask about your specific location but we can help you learn how to know what to look for for yourself if you'd like to learn how.

Edited by StargazingHippy
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Can somebody advise?

Which point of view is better to raise probability to see?

 

Does south-ward direction of view declining chances to see?

 

If comparing Southward and Northward direction: how many % of sight will differs?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, Glowman said:

Can somebody advise?

Which point of view is better to raise probability to see?

 

Does south-ward direction of view declining chances to see?

 

If comparing Southward and Northward direction: how many % of sight will differs?

It's really a you have to be there kind of thing and as I said above best prediction is an hour out - currently the bz is north so its no but if it turns south later than maybe yes, trying to guess is why most of us go crazy. Use the live stats on space weather live and then go somewhere dark, put night mode on your camera and snap pictures, trust me you'll know it when you see it 🙂

**it depends on the aural oval over your area specifically so no one can give %%, traditionally north is best, last night i was under a dome that surrounded me completely it changed non stop

Edited by StargazingHippy
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know that last X-class flare from AR3664 released a CME which had some Earth-facing component. Since the interplanetary medium should be pretty sparse right now, being cleared out by previous CMEs, it might be travelling towards us at a much higher speed... so may impact us soon and deepen the storm. However, as has already been said, it really depends on if the IMF Bz turns southward and if the CME has a strong southward Bz within it... and these are things that are impossible to predict or observe until we get the warning signs from ACE/DISCOVR, at which point we'll only have about 30 minutes warning.

Unfortunately with the northward turning of Bz just now, I have my doubts that the storm will get any deeper. However, I'm definitely happy to be wrong! We'll just have to wait and see.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Joshua Williams said:

I know that last X-class flare from AR3664 released a CME which had some Earth-facing component. Since the interplanetary medium should be pretty sparse right now, being cleared out by previous CMEs, it might be travelling towards us at a much higher speed... so may impact us soon and deepen the storm. However, as has already been said, it really depends on if the IMF Bz turns southward and if the CME has a strong southward Bz within it... and these are things that are impossible to predict or observe until we get the warning signs from ACE/DISCOVR, at which point we'll only have about 30 minutes warning.

Unfortunately with the northward turning of Bz just now, I have my doubts that the storm will get any deeper. However, I'm definitely happy to be wrong! We'll just have to wait and see.

All correct. Love it. Welcome from a fellow member! Mike   It took me a long time at my lower latitude to view the show of a lifetime but was worth the waiting! 

Edited by hamateur 1953
Afterthought
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue. By using this site, you also agree to our Terms of Use and our Privacy Policy.