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2024/05/03 X1.69 CME


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33 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Not even halo visible in LASCO imagery so I don’t believe it will have an impact.

I think the shock in across the solar disk said it best. The CME probably went through some CHs on the west and south side, along with a CIR on the NNW side of the CME in coronagraph imagery.

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Possibly under the 60 hours of travel time that I like, I'd expect an arrival at some point in the morning to afternoon on the 5th. I'll go with G2 possible.

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2 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

I think the shock in across the solar disk said it best. The CME probably went through some CHs on the west and south side, along with a CIR on the NNW side of the CME in coronagraph imagery.

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Possibly under the 60 hours of travel time that I like, I'd expect an arrival at some point in the morning to afternoon on the 5th. I'll go with G2 possible.

I hope @Jesterface23is correct. And this incident  arrival time, weather and bz cooperate over soggy bottom, western Washington US of A.  

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3 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Not even halo visible in LASCO imagery so I don’t believe it will have an impact.

Same. HaloCME and Solarham went with the same estimate, so it will be extra interesting to see if @Jesterface23 remains right with an arrival. even a strong one anticipated :)  

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27 minutes ago, tigerpaw0723 said:

Low Energy Electrons & Protons - Electron Proton Alpha Monitor (EPAM)
 maybe soon?

Not quite, we are probably observing the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Protons will all start rising steadily once the CME arrives.

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1 hour ago, Parabolic said:

Not quite, we are probably observing the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Protons will all start rising steadily once the CME arrives.

thank you. hows it looking?

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56 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

do you think we“re through the CIR now and have still not seen a CME arrival? Parameters look a little bit like it I think?

The CME iis certainly far more than a glancing blow than I expected. I'm thinking we will see a SIR/CME arrival with this CIR we are in. I'm not sure if the EPAMp will give much more than a hour heads up of the arrival.

We might be in a weak very weak CH HSS/CIR transition period currently as well rather than just a CIR.

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1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said:

The CME iis certainly far more than a glancing blow than I expected. 

Why? Because of the other CIR you seem to anticipate? Sorry, I’m getting a bit confused by now. I thought the CME should’ve impacted around 21-22Z according to Enlil. There was a CIR ahead of a CH HSS. Now that Cir likely ended, transitioning into the CH HSS. That’s where I am right now. So now there’s still the CME coming likely, yes? But why more than you thought? And then another cir ?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, StargazingHippy said:

Here's hoping the BZ turns south again,I actually have clear skies tonight.

Good luck to y’all!!  Wow. You’re also lucky with the moon tonight and Victoria mag and Ottowa both register it now too. All you need is a swing south of bz and rockandroll 

Edited by hamateur 1953
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