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22 hours ago, chronical said:

I’ve always thought that a delta had to have a merged umbra, thanks for correcting me :)

It looks like there is a shared umbra in 2 spots right now! 

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44 minutes ago, mozy said:

Looking really solid now for even bigger X-flares..

When a delta has a shared umbra does that give it a high chance for a major flare?

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5 minutes ago, Jay-B said:

When a delta has a shared umbra does that give it a high chance for a major flare?

Higher chance yes.

 

1 hour ago, Jay-B said:

It looks like there is a shared umbra in 2 spots right now! 

I don't see it, It's close but there's still separation between them. Nonetheless It's really complex.

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1 hour ago, mozy said:

Looking really solid now for even bigger X-flares

It seems to have developed a big delta kind of, but not exactly, like one of the sunspots that fired a big flare right in front of earth for the Halloween storms of 2003. Of course this sunspot group is smaller so we shouldn’t expect that but still very interesting.

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14 minutes ago, mozy said:

I don't see it, It's close but there's still separation between them. Nonetheless It's really complex.

Yeah, it looks like it moved back away. I should have screenshot it because it looked like an upside down capital F that branched out into the opposing polarities.

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4 minutes ago, Jay-B said:

Yeah, it looks like it moved back away. I should have screenshot it because it looked like an upside down capital F that branched out into the opposing polarities.

So it was closer than it is now? Mustve missed it >.< if you find a screenshot or have an estimate time in utc let me know :) then ill go through SDO frames hehe

21 minutes ago, mozy said:

 

 

I don't see it, It's close but there's still separation between them. Nonetheless It's really complex.

yes its really close together :) Do you think there is not much shear right now?

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5 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

So it was closer than it is now? Mustve missed it >.< if you find a screenshot or have an estimate time in utc let me know :) then ill go through SDO frames hehe

yes its really close together :) Do you think there is not much shear right now?

There's probably a lot, I think It's a ticking timebomb, still gaining new spots too.

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6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

So it was closer than it is now? Mustve missed it >.< if you find a screenshot or have an estimate time in utc let me know :) then ill go through SDO frames hehe

It was from an hour ago or maybe the one from 2hrs ago

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Just now, mozy said:

There's probably a lot, I think It's a ticking timebomb, still gaining new spots too.

how do you personally determine shear? Out of all the things sunspots i think its the hardest. @Philalethes had a good approach i think, but its been so long ago :D 

Just now, Jay-B said:

It was from an hour ago or maybe the one from 2hrs ago

Thank you :) 

1 minute ago, mozy said:

There's probably a lot, I think It's a ticking timebomb, still gaining new spots too.

ah btw, forgot to ask, where is it gaining new spots? im still @work.  

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Just now, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Damn 😍 ticking timebomb indeed, what a delta with strong magnetic shear it seems. It must give some nice fireworks…

Damn i must suck at determining shear. :(  Can you tell me how you personally "spot" it? My way was, to look at the magnetogram and see how "dark" the specific colour for negative and positive are, indicating spot "strength" and seeing if there are persistant "fireworks" or "crackling" within the region. that seems to be wrong because you and mozy said its a strong delta with much shear.  sorry to ask stupid questions again - just wanna learn though :) :)❤️ 

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7 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

ah btw, forgot to ask, where is it gaining new spots? im still @work.  

I have seen small spots forming east and west, so it shows that she’s far from dying yet :)

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1 minute ago, SpaceWeather5464 said:

The close negative and positive umbra is the best delta in a long time, Hopefully it does something as it faces us. 

It did an X1.6 and an M4, as you said if it could just launch a beautiful CME right towards us…

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3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Damn i must suck at determining shear. :(  Can you tell me how you personally "spot" it? My way was, to look at the magnetogram and see how "dark" the specific colour for negative and positive are, indicating spot "strength" and seeing if there are persistant "fireworks" or "crackling" within the region. that seems to be wrong because you and mozy said its a strong delta with much shear.  sorry to ask stupid questions again - just wanna learn though :) :)❤️ 

Super close proximity and the negative polarity is pushing towards the positive within that whole delta area.

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1 minute ago, mozy said:

Super close proximity and the negative polarity is pushing towards the positive within that whole delta area.

 

1 minute ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Simple said: When a delta spot is squashed against another spot of opposite polarity shear increases. 

I get that. but i always believed shear is something else, something "more", almost like another factor. I hope that makes sense? So in like previous regions, i thought there were okay deltas with less shear, even though they were close. so shear depends on how close together the opposing polarities are and is not a standalone thing?  Hope i got it now. 

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6 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

 

I get that. but i always believed shear is something else, something "more", almost like another factor. I hope that makes sense? So in like previous regions, i thought there were okay deltas with less shear, even though they were close. so shear depends on how close together the opposing polarities are and is not a standalone thing?  Hope i got it now. 

Like I said “simple said” 😜 there is more depth to it but I won’t go into that. In this case it isn’t just a spot in penumbral area, both polarity’s umbrae form a line and is squashed against each other along the line making it a very explosive region and thus strong shear.

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Just now, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Like I said “simple said” 😜 there is more depth to it but I won’t go into that. In this case it isn’t just a spot in penumbral area, both polarity’s umbrae form a line and is squashed against each other making it a very explosive region and thus strong shear.

great explanation. i owe you two :) 

i read about the "lines of opposing polarity" a while back on solar ham. now that makes more sense too :) 

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14 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Damn i must suck at determining shear. :(  Can you tell me how you personally "spot" it?

It's not something you can typically see that easily from just looking at the magnetograms, because it depends on how the different spots are connected too, but in some situations it's clear that it's present. Shear is essentially when you have magnetic field lines going in opposite directions right next to each other. This can happen in both the transverse direction (parallel to the surface, "horizontal") and radial direction (perpendicular to the surface, "vertical").

When two spots are pushed together it doesn't necessarily mean there'd be any significant shear, but when they get squashed together this closely, so that the umbrae come so close, then it's immediately clear that there must be significant vertical shear there, because you'd the field lines from both umbrae moving in opposite directions right next to each other.

For horizontal shear it's more difficult to determine with certainty, vector magnetograms would be very useful in that regard, but in very complex regions (not necessarily this particular region, which isn't all that complex) there's almost bound to be some of it occurring.

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10 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

great explanation. i owe you two :) 

i read about the "lines of opposing polarity" a while back on solar ham. now that makes more sense too :) 

There are ways to calculate to shear but it's a pain (at least for me). I may repeating the others when I explain it the way I taught myself to look for stronger shear. When you see two deltas that "comfortably" share penumbra, the shear is probably average. When two deltas look like they're visibly squishing each other, the shear can be much greater.

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17 minutes ago, Parabolic said:

There are ways to calculate to shear but it's a pain (at least for me). I may repeating the others when I explain it the way I taught myself to look for stronger shear. When you see two deltas that "comfortably" share penumbra, the shear is probably average. When two deltas look like they're visibly squishing each other, the shear can be much greater.

great "easy" explanation :) 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

 

Oops. Anyway  The shear line is clearly visible currently in our HMI pics 

Assuming the darker the spots are, the hotter and more activity is taking place, I would think another X class is likely before it leaves our target zone.  
The Negative region seems to be approximately the same size it was before the X 1.6 to me anyway.  

1 hour ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Like I said “simple said” 😜 there is more depth to it but I won’t go into that. In this case it isn’t just a spot in penumbral area, both polarity’s umbrae form a line and is squashed against each other along the line making it a very explosive region and thus strong shear.

I would only add that it is considerate of this AR to be in a growth stage while front and center.  Haha. 

Edited by hamateur 1953
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