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AR 3590


Sayv678
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What are the chances of ar 3590 producing a big enough cme to cause long term power outages… man i think i really need to get off of here i think im scary myself thinking a cme going to hit us and collapse humanity 

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27 minutes ago, Sayv678 said:

What are the chances of ar 3590 producing a big enough cme to cause long term power outages… man i think i really need to get off of here i think im scary myself thinking a cme going to hit us and collapse humanity 

First of all - region 3590 is now on the far side, meaning we can't say for sure what magnetic complexity it has if at all. Based on the helioseismology images I saw today, the only thing I can say is that the region is likely still alive on the far side.

Secondly - the chance that this region will produce big enough CME to cause long-term power outages is close to 0%. The only documented case, when there was a power grid failure, that resulted in a power outage was during the 2003 Halloween solar storm, but the outage lasted only for a few hours and was relatively localized (southern Finland). There were X28.5 and X24.5 solar flares that caused that outage and since then nothing even close (in strength) to this has been observed. 

So, if there even will be extreme solar flares like the ones I mentioned, here on Earth we will only experience at worst some power outages, that will not last even a day, and maybe some GPS position errors, but forget about the collapse of humanity. :)

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A thread about AR3590 already exists and the region should appear on the eastern limb only on March 15-16

2 hours ago, MeteoLatvia said:

So, if there even will be extreme solar flares like the ones I mentioned, here on Earth we will only experience at worst some power outages, that will not last even a day, and maybe some GPS position errors, but forget about the collapse of humanity. :)

There is a chance that the power outage could last a little longer due to the fact that transformers are made to order and there are currently no stocks. You have to wait several weeks for such a transformer

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3 hours ago, Sayv678 said:

What are the chances of ar 3590 producing a big enough cme to cause long term power outages… man i think i really need to get off of here i think im scary myself thinking a cme going to hit us and collapse humanity 

Nice to see common sense prevailing here still. You might see a few of Elons satellites as they are slowed down and prematurely “ deorbit” too, but that might be entertaining for nighttime viewing, especially for visual astronomers.  😆. Since 2003 things are naturally much safer now as power companies have learned much better to ride out temporary inductions and not cause major issues by disconnecting themselves from grids too.   We learn from our previous mistakes, usually.   

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4 hours ago, Sayv678 said:

What are the chances of ar 3590 producing a big enough cme to cause long term power outages… man i think i really need to get off of here i think im scary myself thinking a cme going to hit us and collapse humanity 

the best thing you can do is to visit psychotherapist (no negative purpose) 

and your anxiety will probably be treated

Edited by tniickck
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