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Unspecified geomagnetic activity


Isatsuki San
Message added by Sam Warfel,

Use this thread to discuss any minor questions or unspecified geomagnetic activity. 

For discussion of expected inbound CMEs, or noticeable geomagnetic storms, please create new threads (“X2 CME prediction”, “G3 storming”)

Thank you!

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1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said:

Parece que una CME de la región 3463 pudo haber impactado a STEREO A hace unas horas. El Bz está en negativo respecto al CME anterior en el que nos encontramos ahora, por lo que tal vez pueda llevarnos al G1 previsto por el SWPC cuando llegue.

ah it's a cme that arrived early, I was already going to ask

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@Isatsuki San
UNEXPECTED GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Earlier today, Oct. 26th, a  crack opened in Earth's magnetic field, triggering an unexpected G1-class geomagnetic storm. The episode lasted for approximately 5 hours (0800 UT -- 1300 UT) and probably ignited auroras around the Arctic Circle, although none has been reported yet. 
- Spaceweather.com

Edited by Newbie
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1 hour ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said:

Can any of you tell me when the facing earth Coronal Hole cir/hss arrived? Or did it go gradually? I lack of expierence with coronal holes vs. geomagnetic activity.

Issued: 2023 Oct 30 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center #

Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind remained in the positive sector and speed rose through the period from 550 to 650 km/s before decreasing to near 600 km/s where it remained. Bz was southward for the bulk of the 24 hour period. This, combined with relatively higher temperatures and lower densities suggests fast stream emanating from coronal hole 66 is geoeffective.

.Forecast... The fast stream is expected to be geoeffective through the end of 30 Oct. CH HSS influences are expected to wane over 31 Oct before the solar wind returns to background conditions on 1 Nov.

Geospace .24 hr Summary... Two periods of G1 (Minor) storm conditions were observed, with the remainder of the day characterized by active conditions. The disturbed environment was a consequence of the fast solar wind that became geoeffective. .Forecast... A diminishing chance (25 percent) remains for another isolated minor storm period through day 1 as the fast stream passes.

From SWPC.

N.

 

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31 minuten geleden, Newbie zei:

Issued: 2023 Oct 30 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center #

Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind remained in the positive sector and speed rose through the period from 550 to 650 km/s before decreasing to near 600 km/s where it remained. Bz was southward for the bulk of the 24 hour period. This, combined with relatively higher temperatures and lower densities suggests fast stream emanating from coronal hole 66 is geoeffective.

.Forecast... The fast stream is expected to be geoeffective through the end of 30 Oct. CH HSS influences are expected to wane over 31 Oct before the solar wind returns to background conditions on 1 Nov.

Geospace .24 hr Summary... Two periods of G1 (Minor) storm conditions were observed, with the remainder of the day characterized by active conditions. The disturbed environment was a consequence of the fast solar wind that became geoeffective. .Forecast... A diminishing chance (25 percent) remains for another isolated minor storm period through day 1 as the fast stream passes.

From SWPC.

N.

 

Thx Newbie.

Nice to know such details. I looked at the real time solar wind of the past 3 days, and usually with a cme coming, most of the time you can easily point out when it arrived, but now I cant make anything of it.

Because there are several moments with high speed(rising very slowly), very low density and bz south.

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18 minutes ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said:

Thx Newbie.

Nice to know such details. I looked at the real time solar wind of the past 3 days, and usually with a cme coming, most of the time you can easily point out when it arrived, but now I cant make anything of it.

Because there are several moments with high speed(rising very slowly), very low density and bz south.

Please note this was issued on October 29th but it is still current.

Geomagnetic Storm Warning 

October 29, 2023 @ 03:00 UTC

Minor (G1) geomagnetic storming is being observed at higher latitudes thanks to an enhanced solar wind stream. An expected coronal hole stream combined with a CME that may pass close to Earth could bring additional periods of storming over the next 48 hours. 
So CME effects may impact our magnetosphere up until October 31.

Keep an eye on the Aurora page here for current conditions and forecasts.

N.

 

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3 hours ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said:

Can any of you tell me when the facing earth Coronal Hole cir/hss arrived? Or did it go gradually? I lack of expierence with coronal holes vs. geomagnetic activity.

I was under the impression that the SIR started hitting on the 28th (when density goes up and speed starts climbing), and that the HSS had set in at peak velocity of almost 700 km/s around halfway through the 29th (yesterday). Haven't paid that close attention, so could be missing something.

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17 minuten geleden, Malisha Reuvekamp zei:

I wonder why spwc prediction doesn't really match what is said at spaceweather.com or cme scoreboard and different website predictions about the coming up geomagnetic activity by 2 CME's and then the other one earthdirected from 3 nov filament 

Keep in mind the CME Scoreboard is where scientist post their predictions that are sometimes preliminary and can often be incorrect. Some predictions will be way off. When there are enough predictions it can become more accurate but still… it’s not to use for the general audience. 
each forecaster can have different outcomes resulting in other possibilities.

Also, keep in mind that there isn’t an accurate way of predicting the intensity of geomagnetic storms. even when G3 would be predicted, when IMF stays northward there goes all predictions. The only certainties from predictions is the estimated arrival time (which is also inaccurate by + and - 6 hours or more) and a possible solar wind speed on arrival (but when it’s late it will be slower thus less chances). 

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33 minutes ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said:

And does anyone know what is happening right now?

Density went a bit crazy along with rising bt and bz further south.

Hemispheric is a bit rising also and stackplot shows some movement.

I'm betting we're getting a glancing blow from that front-side, Halloween filament snap.

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2 uren geleden, cgrant26 zei:

I'm betting we're getting a glancing blow from that front-side, Halloween filament snap.

Nice to see. Everything in orange or red except speed and aurora oval.🙈while I'm typing this oval turns a bit yellow at least. 🤭

 

Update: to be sure I didnt miss any possible fotographic auroras I went out.

Could have been on my screen.. if not poring with rain and clouds. 🙈

Edited by Malisha Reuvekamp
Update
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I wish there was a tool to show the forecast better than ENLIL that could display ALL of the incoming and current flares, rather than just the most recent. In a situation like today, it would be nice to see them graphically-displayed in real time, ie. Electrons absolutely spiked until impact today of what I assume is the 10/31 flare. I think we may see one other before the filament tomorrow night.

IMG_1147.jpeg

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3 minuten geleden, David Silver zei:

I wish there was a tool to show the forecast better than ENLIL that could display ALL of the incoming and current flares, rather than just the most recent. In a situation like today, it would be nice to see them graphically-displayed in real time, ie. Electrons absolutely spiked until impact today of what I assume is the 10/31 flare. I think we may see one other before the filament tomorrow night.

IMG_1147.jpeg

That would be nice indeed 🤭

I'm curious what will happen in the next 48 hours. 

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16 minutes ago, David Silver said:

Desearía que hubiera una herramienta para mostrar el pronóstico mejor que ENLIL y que pudiera mostrar TODAS las llamaradas entrantes y actuales, en lugar de solo las más recientes. En una situación como la actual, sería bueno verlos mostrados gráficamente en tiempo real, es decir. Los electrones se dispararon por completo hasta el impacto de hoy de lo que supongo que es la llamarada del 31 de octubre. Creo que nos veremos antes del filamento mañana por la noche.

IMG_1147.jpeg

I agree with you that it is the CME of October 31

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