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Latest SC25 Predictions


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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

As preliminary numbers go, November 2023 is set to becomes the next solar maximum candidate come May 21st.

Shhhhh! Patrick will hear you and start crying…. Then the next alternative theory will be forthcoming very quickly as well as the explanation as to why he was right about June 2023 until he was wrong 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤣🤣

Edited by Justanerd
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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Justanerd said:

Shhhhh! Patrick will hear you and start crying…. Then the next alternative theory will be forthcoming very quickly as well as the explanation as to why he was right about June 2023 until he was wrong 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤣🤣

Made my day!!  Thanks @JustanerdAnd I am happy to announce that observed 10.7 is back at 201 today at 20:00 UTC

Edited by hamateur 1953
20:00 SFI. Or F10.7 as otherwise known
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Posted (edited)

Funny you should bring up latitudes!! Honestly I am working on this right now and asked @Philalethes If he knew of a source for latitude averages at Solar max. Via PM. We only have available the last two within our archives and although tedious I did work them out last year I think it was.    Edit.  There seems to be about a three or four month undulating pattern although the trend is generally towards both solar equators.  I realise this is “ old school” and modern methods may yield better predictive results but I have the time and interest to spare.  Tnx Mike 

Edited by hamateur 1953
Reasoning
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Also, I predict that solar maximum will move to 11/23 due to a triple line up of 365day smoothing, 13 month smoothing,  as well as 30 day smoothing. At the end of this period the will be a pick-up solar flares.

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Posted (edited)

Possibly, I haven’t checked recently. However there seems to be an undulating pattern within this cycle at least.  This January we dipped down around twelve but at last check we were nearly where we were last June: over 15 degrees.  What does this mean?  Uncertain at present time. But I was very happy to see it.  Edit. This can easily be done by anyone here by simply looking in the upper right of each active region, noting its latitude adding the latitudes then dividing by the total number of regions. Initially, i was separating the hemispheres because of of my own curiosity as to relative activity, however STCE does this too. So I didn’t bother with it. And overall they are pretty equal presently over the last year or so.  Mike   12.78 from our records nine ARs currently listed.  

Edited by hamateur 1953
Afterthoughts. And current latitudes
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