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AR 13105


Philalethes

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12 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

That location is where I would expect to see the old AR3089. On SDO it currently looks like no more than a simple Beta. Let's hope it develops further.

It has certainly begun its journey in the right way. Nice to have something happening on the eastern side for a change :)

N

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....ahh, what a pity, earth jumped beside and "dodged" the flare again!

@Solarflaretracker 200: Yes, I was kidding, of course! The side has beautiful photos users always send in. But you know, like a boulevard press with
so many advertisings they need many klicks of course so they boost up their stories like hell!
I also can predict rain - for everybody of you. Of course I would be wrong a lot but if I am right once, I can say "As predicted...", too!

Regards from a maybe future rain forecaster! (...what happend to me? I am already kidding again...)

Chris

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1 hour ago, Chris, HB9DFG said:

@Solarflaretracker 200: Yes, I was kidding, of course! The side has beautiful photos users always send in. But you know, like a boulevard press with
so many advertisings they need many klicks of course so they boost up their stories like hell!

I kinda figured but I wanted to make sure lol. 

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3 hours ago, 3gMike said:

That location is where I would expect to see the old AR3089. On SDO it currently looks like no more than a simple Beta. Let's hope it develops further.

This area which produced the M1 flare has now been numbered AR 13107.

N.

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6 hours ago, 3gMike said:

That location is where I would expect to see the old AR3089. On SDO it currently looks like no more than a simple Beta. Let's hope it develops further.

Well, I hope it's more active this time around - if 13107 is 13089 returning.

Seems like 3089 was quiet as a church mouse last time around...

it does look pretty through the telescope in white light and continuum. Got the best contrast with 4nm OIII.  Fixing to check it out in H-alpha today! Maybe it's been saving up all that magnetic energy got today!

WnAK

Sun just climbed over the roof! It's showtime!

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5 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Are you talking about the area on the bottom?

latest.gif

If so, I can see the tendencies, but I'm not sure I'd call it a delta just yet, until the umbrae are a bit more established there.

Looks like the orphan penumbra thing again, if im not blind. 😛 

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7 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Looks like the orphan penumbra thing again, if im not blind. 😛 

If you're talking about the area on the bottom there, there does seem to be a slight umbra there, but it remains to be seen how it will develop, sometimes they disappear again.

If you're talking about the area on the left I see what you mean, I also thought that was a leading spot at first, but there seems to only be a penumbra there of negative polarity. I'm still not sure whether that's what's actually referred to as an orphan penumbra or not, but it sure seems like it's not really associated with the spot on the other side or the one in the AR to the left (AR 13107).

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5 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

If you're talking about the area on the bottom there, there does seem to be a slight umbra there, but it remains to be seen how it will develop, sometimes they disappear again.

If you're talking about the area on the left I see what you mean, I also thought that was a leading spot at first, but there seems to only be a penumbra there of negative polarity. I'm still not sure whether that's what's actually referred to as an orphan penumbra or not, but it sure seems like it's not really associated with the spot on the other side or the one in the AR to the left (AR 13107).

I get you.

The Region is still growing a little bit as far as i can observe but i think its still beta. Idk if it can be considered gamma.

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57 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

I get you.

The Region is still growing a little bit as far as i can observe but i think its still beta. Idk if it can be considered gamma.

I agree, it seems like it's just beta at the moment. The region to the left is just a penumbra regardless of whether it qualifies as an orphan or not, and as such I don't think it "counts" when it comes to gamma classification, but perhaps it can. As for the area on the bottom, the tendency to an umbra for the negative polarity seems to have shrunk to near nothing, so there's no delta there either.

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1 hour ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

I agree, it seems like it's just beta at the moment. The region to the left is just a penumbra regardless of whether it qualifies as an orphan or not, and as such I don't think it "counts" when it comes to gamma classification, but perhaps it can. As for the area on the bottom, the tendency to an umbra for the negative polarity seems to have shrunk to near nothing, so there's no delta there either.

Could you maybe produce a gif soon? :D I love them so much. Makes it so much easier.

 

Also, where would it need to grow to get to gamma or even delta? (are there possible delta spots in the making somewhere?)

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1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

Could you maybe produce a gif soon? :D I love them so much. Makes it so much easier.

 

Also, where would it need to grow to get to gamma or even delta? (are there possible delta spots in the making somewhere?)

I make them all the time to look at myself, that's why I streamlined the process; this is what it looks like now:

latest.gif

For it to become gamma there'd have to grow some positive spots between the negative ones or vice versa, and there doesn't seem like any great candidates for that currently. I'd say that tiny negative spot that was growing near the bottom (marked above) could've done the trick, and would've made a delta too, but instead of turning into a spot proper it seems to have subsided almost completely, leaving only a small sliver of penumbra; you can see how it looked on the previous one I posted above. At least it seems like it's around that area where some positive spot would grow to turn the region into a gamma and/or delta.

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31 minutes ago, Newbie said:

Recently detected sigmoid activity around 3107 and 3105. Both areas have produced C flares. For some reason SWPC synoptic map gives 40%/20% chance of C/M flares for 3107 and 60%/5% chance of C/M for 3105.

I can't figure that one out.

N.

 

The map was produced at 12:53 UTC yesterday. Perhaps conditions have changed since then?

I just noticed that all sunspots are now listed on this website  as Alpha AXX !!

Edited by 3gMike
Added info re classification
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13 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

The map was produced at 12:53 UTC yesterday. Perhaps conditions have changed since then?

I just noticed that all sunspots are now listed on this website  as Alpha AXX !!

Hello Mike I had noticed the percentages earlier today, the figures seemed a little odd. Eg. 3105 60% for C yet 5% M whereas 3107 40% C and 20% M. I know it's of no benefit being pedantic over numbers. Do you remember a little while back the same thing happened here where a complex spot was given the same AXX classification. It was soon rectified.  

 

I felt a bit sorry for the person at SWPC who made an obvious typo on the synoptic map calling 3105, 3106.... and then followed up with next spot number 3106! I'm sure they would have copped some ribbing over that!

Perhaps the percentages will change. I have noticed background flux has fallen below C level. (Last time I looked)

N.

Even Solarham made a blue today calling activity around 3102 (centre disc) as being in the SE quadrant. Mondayitis must be going on all this week! A week of Mondays :)

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15 minutes ago, Newbie said:

Hello Mike I had noticed the percentages earlier today, the figures seemed a little odd. Eg. 3105 60% for C yet 5% M whereas 3107 40% C and 20% M. I know it's of no benefit being pedantic over numbers. Do you remember a little while back the same thing happened here where a complex spot was given the same AXX classification. It was soon rectified.  

 

I felt a bit sorry for the person at SWPC who made an obvious typo on the synoptic map calling 3105, 3106.... and then followed up with next spot number 3106! I'm sure they would have copped some ribbing over that!

Perhaps the percentages will change. I have noticed background flux has fallen below C level. (Last time I looked)

N.

Even Solarham made a blue today calling activity around 3102 (centre disc) as being in the SE quadrant. Mondayitis must be going on all this week! A week of Mondays :)

Solarham was updated 2 days ago. do you mean solen?

May i ask why the percentages in the Synoptic map are wrong? :o 

(solen and Solarham were updated 24 & 48h ago so maybe you mean someone entirely else?) 

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8 minutes ago, Newbie said:

Hello Mike I had noticed the percentages earlier today, the figures seemed a little odd. Eg. 3105 60% for C yet 5% M whereas 3107 40% C and 20% M. I know it's of no benefit being pedantic over numbers.

Hi N, I'm not entirely sure how the percentages are calculated, but it seems reasonable that it takes into account the local magnetic field strength. I suspect that 3107 is located in an area of higher magnetic field, so might be considered more likely to produce M flares. That said it is not looking particularly active at the moment😒

13 minutes ago, Newbie said:

I felt a bit sorry for the person at SWPC who made an obvious typo on the synoptic map calling 3105, 3106.... and then followed up with next spot number 3106! I'm sure they would have copped some ribbing over that!

Yes, I agree. We sometimes forget that a lot of this information is still based on human input, and will therefore sometimes be subject to human error..

16 minutes ago, Newbie said:

Perhaps the percentages will change. I have noticed background flux has fallen below C level. (Last time I looked)

Yes, it does seem to be staying stubbornly low. However, if you look at the 81 day average for 10.7cm fluxon Solen it seems to show steady growth over the past few weeks.

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6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Solarham was updated 2 days ago. do you mean solen?

May i ask why the percentages in the Synoptic map are wrong? :o 

(solen and Solarham were updated 24 & 48h ago so maybe you mean someone entirely else?) 

No Min I don't mean Solen, I mean Solarham. I haven't checked back perhaps they have edited it or put a new story up! 

 

I'm not saying the percentages are wrong however to my thinking if 3105 has a 60% chance for C then the chance for M would be higher than 3107 that has 40% chance for C but no 3107 has been given a 20% chance of M and 3105 5%. That is odd to me!

N.

 

18 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

Hi N, I'm not entirely sure how the percentages are calculated, but it seems reasonable that it takes into account the local magnetic field strength. I suspect that 3107 is located in an area of higher magnetic field, so might be considered more likely to produce M flares. That said it is not looking particularly active at the moment 😄

Hi Mike I thought it was odd, as I explained to Min, that 3105 with a higher expectation for C flares would have a lower chance of M flares compared to 3107. My thinking is that 3107 would have greater chance of both. Just my thought on it. :)

25 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

Yes, it does seem to be staying stubbornly low. However, if you look at the 81 day average for 10.7cm fluxon Solen it seems to show steady growth over the past few weeks.

Yes, agreed Mike it has been steadily increasing over the last few weeks. My reference was only in light of today's dip below C which doesn't go well for the activity we are all hoping for. 

N.

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1 hour ago, Newbie said:

No Min I don't mean Solen, I mean Solarham. I haven't checked back perhaps they have edited it or put a new story up! 

 

I'm not saying the percentages are wrong however to my thinking if 3105 has a 60% chance for C then the chance for M would be higher than 3107 that has 40% chance for C but no 3107 has been given a 20% chance of M and 3105 5%. That is odd to me!

N.

 

Hi Mike I thought it was odd, as I explained to Min, that 3105 with a higher expectation for C flares would have a lower chance of M flares compared to 3107. My thinking is that 3107 would have greater chance of both. Just my thought on it. :)

Yes, agreed Mike it has been steadily increasing over the last few weeks. My reference was only in light of today's dip below C which doesn't go well for the activity we are all hoping for. 

N.

Okay ty:) 

What about the sigmoid activity? Hows the regions complexity looking?

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40 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Okay ty:) 

What about the sigmoid activity? Hows the regions complexity looking?

Hello Min, today there was sigmoid activity around 3105. There is now an increased chance of an M class flare to 15%. This makes more sense to me. The chance of an M class flare from 3107 has dropped to 1%.

N.

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23 minutes ago, Newbie said:

Hello Min, today there was sigmoid activity around 3105. There is now an increased chance of an M class flare to 15%. This makes more sense to me. The chance of an M class flare from 3107 has dropped to 1%.

N.

Are those percentages from the synoptic map from 5UTC? Thank you! ❤️ 

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