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AR2993/AR2994...another return...or another dud?


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15 minutes ago, halojatapäivää said:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-solar-ultraviolet-imager-suvi

The time interval for the uploaded images is also lower than SDO's AIA (4mins vs 10mins)

Yeah, I check GOES SUVI imagery (SWL menu: Solar activity: Solar images: GOES) to look at solar flares first because they update sooner than SDO

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12 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

Theres Goes Imagery?

Yes, there is. The GOES twins are Geostational, thus faster up/downlink for Pictures.

1 minute ago, Solar_Marcel said:

Yes, there is. The GOES twins are Geostational, thus faster up/downlink for Pictures.

Also i just saw, woah 10,7 Solar Radio Flux is at 153!! What does that mean?

 

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2 hours ago, Solar_Marcel said:

Also i just saw, woah 10,7 Solar Radio Flux is at 153!! What does that mean?

It is a fairly high peak, probably mostly linked to the incoming regions, but predicted to fall slightly over the next few days. To give some perspective, the 90day mean for March was 118, April was 131, and May (to date) is 120

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5 hours ago, 3gMike said:

It is a fairly high peak, probably mostly linked to the incoming regions, but predicted to fall slightly over the next few days. To give some perspective, the 90day mean for March was 118, April was 131, and May (to date) is 120

It has gone up to 154 compared to yesterday, but thanks for the explanation!

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18 hours ago, Solar_Marcel said:

I dont quite understand... Do you mean the prediction was wrong?

Yes, in my original response I referred to the Penticton data for 14th May which predicted flux falling over next 3 days. I've printed off data for each day showing Observation and Prediction for next 3 days. As you can see the observations for 16th to 18th have exceeded expectations. That is not necessarily a problem - it just means it is very difficult to predict how spots will develop.

1452188877_PentictonFluxPredictionMay14-20.thumb.jpg.562e137f0c00c305502f07ee931ee76b.jpg

 

And now on 18th May we have Observed flux of 180 with next 3 days predicted 180/180/178. It generally seems to be unpredictable.

Edited by 3gMike
Update observation for 18th May
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