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are we going to be in for a treat in about a week?


farm24

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After doing some research on this region, it very well may be a Beta-Gamma-Delta with a 30-35% chance of X class solar flares. But I don't know...

3 minutes ago, jeny96 said:

Looks like there is another one 

AR_MAP_2022.02.17_00_00_00.png

Interesting...

Looks promising 

In fact that region has grown

I guess that the orange one is a Beta-Gamma-Delta with a 30-35% chance of X class solar flares. The yellow one is probably a Beta with a 25% chance of C class solar flares and the green one is probably a Beta as well with a 5% chance of C class solar flares.

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20 minutes ago, jeny96 said:

Looks like there is another one 

AR_MAP_2022.02.17_00_00_00.png

Hopefully this region is not a dud when it comes around the limb... I think in STEREO-A images barely on the limb there is a bright region showing up, so could be this region on the map...

We will see, the next days will be interesting, but because this region is so big, chances are that it decays and we get no show... 

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22 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

 

I guess that the orange one is a Beta-Gamma-Delta with a 30-35% chance of X class solar flares. The yellow one is probably a Beta with a 25% chance of C class solar flares and the green one is probably a Beta as well with a 5% chance of C class solar flares.

Since we dont have a magnetograph on stereo A , how do you come up with this? 

Ah, and yes. on stereo A it is the Region, we can now see it.

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Just now, MinYoongi said:

how do you come up with this?

From seeing the sizes of Beta-Gamma-Delta's it seems to fit, the chances of X classes I took a guess, from the two smaller regions Beta's are usually small like these so it would make sense to accurately guess it. Beta's also have a low chance of C-class solar flares so, again it makes sense to accurately guess it. I don't know it's just a guess 🤷‍♂️

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1 minute ago, Orneno said:

The big one is still really far back, the bright spot is more likely the green or yellow AR in the farside image

I am confused... Why would it be the yellow or green AR? they move to the right... if im not completely wrong... The orange Region therefore would be the nearest to us or STEREO-A

 

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

 

Ok, thanks! Thankfully i saw it right lol

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On 2/14/2022 at 4:48 PM, farm24 said:

i was looking at the SDO AIA farside AR map which is usually good at predicting future spots and i saw this latest_ar_map.png.b6d03c46f5a8ecf4add969afc81b6b72.png

but who knows if its going to decay or not

Can you please provide a link for the source of this image?

Edited by 3gMike
removed double entry
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8 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

I know right! I am getting excited but I am trying not to get my hopes up too much...unless it....you know.... *whispers* decays 

Yes, it always has to be like this... An extremely big region.. umm... letz say like that recent, comes over the limb and dies... lets hope and wait... maybe it´ll prove us wrong, lol🤣

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Oh lol that picture is 1kb under the limit, oof

Back on topic... i think this circled "i´ll call it tip" is what we are seeing on the STEREO-A images

image.thumb.png.8dc8cfa422568bf7de119d4635c29ca7.png

Just now, Solar_Marcel said:

 

Oh lol that picture is 1kb under the limit, oof

Back on topic... i think this circled "i´ll call it tip" is what we are seeing on the STEREO-A images

image.thumb.png.8dc8cfa422568bf7de119d4635c29ca7.png

image.png.3be6dc8a422307161215dd7ab90c8a7f.png

though i think the region might be a little bit smaller than we see it on the farside-map, but that doesnt mean its not interesting!

4 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

What if it does decay? It will be all your fault! 🤣

Oh noo... 

Please.... hopfully that doesnt happen until its given us at least a good (Flare, CME) show...

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32 minutes ago, Solar_Marcel said:
35 minutes ago, Orneno said:

 

I am confused... Why would it be the yellow or green AR? they move to the right... if im not completely wrong... The orange Region therefore would be the nearest to us or STEREO-A

Oh mb, I thought they went the other way, pay me no heed

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Gong itself is a big mystery for me!😅I managed to find something on the "Stanford Seismic Monitor of the Sun's Far Hemisphere for the Solar Dynamics Observatory" page indicating that the region will turn to the limb in ~4 days and some strange "strength" value that i dont get.Bild

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25 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

I know right! I am getting excited but I am trying not to get my hopes up too much...unless it....you know.... *whispers* decays 

🤫🤫

Just now, MinYoongi said:

Gong itself is a big mystery for me!😅I managed to find something on the "Stanford Seismic Monitor of the Sun's Far Hemisphere for the Solar Dynamics Observatory" page indicating that the region will turn to the limb in ~4 days and some strange "strength" value that i dont get.Bild

Would very much like to know what that strength means. Maybe it’s related to the strength of the vibrations they use to map the far side? Like the big AR is vibrating strongly?

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6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Gong itself is a big mystery for me!😅I managed to find something on the "Stanford Seismic Monitor of the Sun's Far Hemisphere for the Solar Dynamics Observatory" page indicating that the region will turn to the limb in ~4 days and some strange "strength" value that i dont get.Bild

4 Days? Didn´t they say ~3 Days on Twitter? Im really confused now, lol

Aand i dont understand gong either... And what is this Strength value?? And in what unit is it displayed? (I had to use google translate for that, because i dont´t know all the english words, im austrian)

Questions upon Questions, i know...😅🤣

 

Edited by Solar_Marcel
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2 minutes ago, Solar_Marcel said:

4 Days? Didn´t they say ~3 Days on Twitter? Im really confused now, lol

Aand i dont understand gong either... And what is this Strength value?? And in what unit is it displayed? (I had to use google translate for that, because i dont´t know all the english words, im austrian)

 

Im german, so you can DM me in german :) 

 

And @Ornenoyeeep im lost too lol

https://nso.edu/blog/nso-team-identify-large-active-region-on-the-farside-of-the-sun/

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