Solar cycle 25

[solar investigator]

It seems many are confused on various models and parameters regarding forecasting solar cycle25.  Alot of you guys are over complicating things. Before i start with the point of this topic, let me address what determines strength of solar cycles.... and that is sunspots. And from what we have seen the incline of sunspot numbers is surpassing both NASA and NOAAs original forecasts of this cycle.  Also of note. It would be highly unusual if the current incline to change statistical characteristic and stop or dramatically slow down. From this we can conclusively conclude beyond resonable doubt that solar cycle 25 will be stronger than the previous cycle. And a decent chance of being stronger than cycle 23 also. This is pretty much all we need to know. When it comes to using other parameters such as solar polar fields or termination events or radio flux, it just over complicates things and not enough is known yet IMO.. 

[Space pro]

1 hour ago, solar investigator said:

It seems many are confused on various models and parameters regarding forecasting solar cycle25.  Alot of you guys are over complicating things. Before i start with the point of this topic, let me address what determines strength of solar cycles.... and that is sunspots. And from what we have seen the incline of sunspot numbers is surpassing both NASA and NOAAs original forecasts of this cycle.  Also of note. It would be highly unusual if the current incline to change statistical characteristic and stop or dramatically slow down. From this we can conclusively conclude beyond resonable doubt that solar cycle 25 will be stronger than the previous cycle. And a decent chance of being stronger than cycle 23 also. This is pretty much all we need to know. When it comes to using other parameters such as solar polar fields or termination events or radio flux, it just over complicates things and not enough is known yet IMO.. 

I agree with you Solar cycle 25 will be stronger than Solar cycle 24 as see the sunspot number of October 2021 it is above 70.

Just now, Space pro said:

I agree with you Solar cycle 25 will be stronger than Solar cycle 24 as see the sunspot number of October 2021 it is above 70.

And also the solar activity is ramping up very fast.

[3gMike]

3 hours ago, solar investigator said:

It would be highly unusual if the current incline to change statistical characteristic and stop or dramatically slow down.

Really?  I suggest that you take a look at the incline of cycle 24 before jumping to premature conclusions.

[Space pro]

 

[Vancanneyt Sander]

3 uren geleden, solar investigator zei:

From this we can conclusively conclude beyond resonable doubt that solar cycle 25 will be stronger than the previous cycle. And a decent chance of being stronger than cycle 23 also.

Current rise of activity is still comparable with SC24 and still a lot below SC23 if you compare those cycles:

[Archmonoth]

9 hours ago, solar investigator said:

 And from what we have seen the incline of sunspot numbers is surpassing both NASA and NOAAs original forecasts of this cycle. 

Its a forecast not a commandment, and seems well within the bounds of other Solar cycles.

9 hours ago, solar investigator said:

Also of note. It would be highly unusual if the current incline to change statistical characteristic and stop or dramatically slow down.

Why would it be unusual, according to who? 

9 hours ago, solar investigator said:

From this we can conclusively conclude beyond resonable doubt that solar cycle 25 will be stronger than the previous cycle.

Something being vaguely unusual or slightly beyond forecast doesn't make anything conclusive. 

9 hours ago, solar investigator said:

And a decent chance of being stronger than cycle 23 also.

Can you define what a decent chance is? 

9 hours ago, solar investigator said:

This is pretty much all we need to know.

Perhaps for you. 

[solar investigator]

My appologies guys. I was viewing a graph on spaceweather.com that showed cycle 25 surpassing both NOAAs and NASAs forecasts. Albeit thnx to you guys. I found out that chart was bogus

But i in my personal opinion still think cycle25 will be at least slightly stronger than cycle24. Just my interpretation on the current trends and gut feeling