i just relized this pattern

[farm24]

i was looking at previous x flares and almost always preceded with at least 1 weaker flare or flares slowly ramping up to a higher magnitude so after todays flare the x-ray flux hasn't calmed down so that is making me think if we are going to get a huge one from that spot

here is the last pic

[Vancanneyt Sander]

It’s normal for an active region with a complex magnetic layout to have many flares. But there isn’t always a pattern and you’ll know that once you follow regions for a few years. We’ve had very complex regions that just didn’t pop, we had regions that only produced impulsive M-class flares (10 on a day) but none eruptive long duration… 

when a sunspot region gets magnetically complex enough it will crack with many C-class flares, lower M and possible higher. The more complex the more active is the theory. 

[Slightly Unstable]

I like this idea, this way of thinking, a lot. If we get a super nasty x-flare we can feel more suspicious. 

There has been so many times we see a big sunspot group turn just away from earth facing and boom. What do you make of that situation?  Every time we have a complex region earth-facing, it's like, how many more times do we get lucky. Mars seems to get hit often. Also those sun-diving comets are like primers. 

[farm24]

8 hours ago, Slightly Unstable said:

I like this idea, this way of thinking, a lot. If we get a super nasty x-flare we can feel more suspicious. 

There has been so many times we see a big sunspot group turn just away from earth facing and boom. What do you make of that situation?  Every time we have a complex region earth-facing, it's like, how many more times do we get lucky. Mars seems to get hit often. Also those sun-diving comets are like primers. 

i mean we did just get a super nasty x just because of how long it was