About the M1 flare...

[Quilloz]

So... I know I'm opening up a highly volatile can of worms here, but is Ben Davidson actually right on this one? Or is he just being his usual misinformed self? Because I'm seeing in the comments here that it's very likely we could be getting near kp-8 levels of activity. And he seems pretty sure it'll happen (almost like he wants it to happen, even).

 

I'm asking because Spaceweather doesn't seem to be updating this situation and again, I'm pretty worried about the effects this could have.

[Hayday]

I don't watch Ben anymore but I agree this is gonna be an interesting and significant event for sure, and I doubt we are out of the woods yet in terms of CMEs from that specific hole either so it might compound...

Edited October 10, 2021 by Hayday

[Jesterface23]

The IMF is the wild card that would make or break the the storm. We would be really lucky if we get Kp7.

 

[Newbie]

I have never bothered with Mr Davidson.

I havent seen more than Kp6 predicted from sites that I trust. If it goes bigger - good! Might be some auroral activity at lower latitudes.

[David Silver]

Hello, I’m new to the forum, but not the subject. I’m personally afraid of the incoming G2 space weather for Sunday/ Monday because I’m adversely affected. I’m here to learn more. 
My bio explains why, but short version is that last time we had such a flare, I was physically and mentally incapacitated. It seems like we’ll get a G2, that CME is moving fast.

In the past 12 months, I have gone from barely ever being affected, to now significant negative effects from the space weather almost weekly. Something is changing. I’m not a wing nut. I am at the point of getting recent MRIs and such to look into my condition, but am here with the true nerds to hyper focus on this and learn what I can.

(edit: I have carefully charted the weather as it pertains to my health, and when Bz is negative, I suffer)

If you don’t know or believe in heliobiology, I understand, but please be nice, because this is actually happening to me, and it reeeeaaaally sucks. 
 

 

Edited October 10, 2021 by David Silver
More detail, corrected date

[Bedreamon]

4 hours ago, Quilloz said:

Because I'm seeing in the comments here that it's very likely we could be getting near kp-8 levels of activity.

I wouldn't really go by the comment sections on any space weather related YT channel, especially since I don't personally think they really study space weather. Even Davidson has more credibility than his comment section, though I mean that in a mostly comparative sense. (Like comparatively more knowledgeable/credible if that makes sense)

Unless you're talking about posts here on SpaceWeatherLive, which I haven't seen anybody mention it being Kp8 or even Kp7.

Edited October 10, 2021 by Bedreamon

[Quilloz]

3 hours ago, Bedreamon said:

I wouldn't really go by the comment sections on any space weather related YT channel, especially since I don't personally think they really study space weather. Even Davidson has more credibility than his comment section, though I mean that in a mostly comparative sense. (Like comparatively more knowledgeable/credible if that makes sense)

Unless you're talking about posts here on SpaceWeatherLive, which I haven't seen anybody mention it being Kp8 or even Kp7.

I don't think it helps that the commenters are more disturbed than Ben is with regards to their comments (seriously, there is one guy who is not only looking forward to this, but also wants to hunt down and eat Democrats. Which should go to show what audience Davidson is catering towards). And that's already taking into consideration that Ben wants his doomsday event to happen.

I'm only concerned that this could very much be the thing that does it. Which does frighten me to some extent, especially since I haven't seen any updates since the initial announcement.

 

 

Edited October 10, 2021 by Quilloz

[MinYoongi]

3 hours ago, Quilloz said:

 

I'm only concerned that this could very much be the thing that does it. Which does frighten me to some extent, especially since I haven't seen any updates since the initial announcement.

 

 

Hey Friend.

If you need more good Spaceweather Forecasts and Information you should definitely check out Twitter. People like Dr.Tamitha Skov and peers are my main source of opinion, information and forecast.

 

First, ill answer your question.

I do not think we will even bump up to a G3 (Kp7). It's fast, but not the fastest... you know? Not very dense looking either. It's a pretty solar Storm but if its magnetic field is of northward polarity nothing will happen

and even if its southward, dont worry about a Kp8-9. 

Ben Davidson is someone that hopes for Doomsday permanently, just for clicks and publicity. Its kinda his thing.

NOAA is usually very good with predections, often over-predicting events even. (Think about the G3 warning they issued a while back - we only reached Kp4 which is only Geomagnetic unrest) 

 

NOAA just updated their Forecast discussion and its still thought to be G1-G2. 

 

I hope my answer was somewhat successful in helping you with your anxiety.

Coming to this Forum and Twitter has completely cured my sun related anxiety. I watched too many doomsday youtubers and I was very misinformed by them, now that I know that even big Solar Storms will not fry our Powergrids, i take it much easier.

 

🥰

[Vancanneyt Sander]

11 uren geleden, David Silver zei:

It seems like we’ll get a G2, that CME is moving fast.

The CME isn't fast, it left the Sun with a very normal speed for a CME. Nothing special about it, it has a normal travel time of about 45 hours. A G2 is a possibility but not a certainty as these storms are always difficult to predict. You'll know what the capabilities are when it actually arrives. If IMF stays north it will be very quiet. 

12 uren geleden, Quilloz zei:

it's very likely we could be getting near kp-8 levels of activity

It will depend on the parameters when it arrives. But based on the speed of the CME: No. Strong storms (Kp8 and 9) require a fast moving CME (take off speed of 1000km/sec and higher) that upon arrival have a leftover speed of 700km/sec or higher. In this case the CME speed measurements of CACtus was around 500km/sec which isn't a lot, it was later refined to 980km/sec but still this is a common speed for CME's and thus have a lesser impact. The biggest question is what the IMF will do upon arrival, but based on many storms in the past a G2 could be possible if favorable conditions occur.

If we look at 5 different forecasts by several Space Weather experts we see a Kp possibility of 5 to 7 not more with a lead time of 40 to 52 hours. So again, it can arrive early or much later than anticipated which also has a big influence on the strength of a possible storm. 

There are a lot of "if"s in Space Weather that YouTubers don't understand but Space Weather enthousiasts (like me) and experts do.

[Hayday]

Regardless of what happens this will make for some good data!

[Quilloz]

5 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

There are a lot of "if"s in Space Weather that YouTubers don't understand but Space Weather enthousiasts (like me) and experts do.

Just don't bring that up with Ben, he likes to be right 100% correct all the time and hates when someone calls themselves an enthusiast unless they buy into his ramblings in full. That's why the guy has so many crazies hanging on his every word, regardless of if it contains a kernel of truth ripped from whatever article he links or wholesale made for the purpose of feeding the hungry doomsday fetishists that are subbed to him.

That's why I get anxious about some of these things.  Among all the doommongering and anti-government rhetoric he spouts, some of the things he shares does have bits of truth even if he twists it into the delusions of a loonatic who wants the world to burn just to show "THEM LIBERALS!" what for. That's the part that gets to me. After all, a broken clock is right a couple of times.

 

 

[Isatsuki San]

19 hours ago, Quilloz said:

Entonces ... sé que estoy abriendo una lata de gusanos altamente volátil aquí, pero ¿Ben Davidson realmente tiene razón en esto ? ¿O simplemente está siendo su habitual mal informado? Porque veo en los comentarios aquí que es muy probable que nos estemos acercando a los niveles de actividad de kp-8. Y parece bastante seguro de que sucederá (casi como si quisiera que sucediera, incluso).

 

Lo pregunto porque Spaceweather no parece estar actualizando esta situación y, nuevamente, estoy bastante preocupado por los efectos que esto podría tener.

It is my point of view, I believe the most that can arrive, it would be a kp7 or kp6 but well depending on the bz addresses, it also has to be seen at the moment, which I think I will inform about when the g2 is formed and if it is intense or not, but in summary I don't think a kp 8 or 9 can come.

PD: I know that it is not an event you care about, but still there is nothing to worry about, we are not in front of a Carrington event

[David Silver]

Hello, I’m not a doom-oriented reader like Davidson and his prepper camp, and don’t get my data from YouTube. I thought fast-moving because I saw initially NOAA was showing the M flare CME arriving overnight but it was later adjusted to a more normal arrival time. I’d attach a screenshot, but my iPad can’t make such small files as 200kb

I do hope IMF and especially Bz stay North /positive. I love aurora, but very much dislike these strong negative health impacts I experience w negative Bz.

Edited October 10, 2021 by David Silver

[Bedreamon]

It kinda depends on what direction the IMF will be (North or South) I'd think. I mean, I personally think the coronal hole stream might affect it, but I don't know by how much.
Heck, I don't even know if it could affect the CME when it impacts Earth. Can anybody with more knowledge answer that? I already asked the SWL twitter, but got no response.

[Hayday]

Anyone have any idea why the CME is suddenly aiming 90 degrees away from earth according to WSA/Enlil?

[David Silver]

Enlil updated and is only showing a flare that happened hours later, it is odd

Edited October 11, 2021 by David Silver

[Jesterface23]

It is common for the model to run for almost any CME, Earth directed or not. You will want to look at the version of the model on top for Earth directed events,

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/wsa-enlil.html

Edited October 11, 2021 by Jesterface23

[Hayday]

1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said:

It is common for the model to run for almost any CME, Earth directed or not. You will want to look at the version of the model on top for Earth directed events,

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/wsa-enlil.html

Alright thanks bud, appreciate the info!

[Archmonoth]

21 hours ago, Quilloz said:

 That's the part that gets to me. After all, a broken clock is right a couple of times.

Only if you watch the clock all day long.

When the hands/numbers of the broken clock match the correct time, this requires another clock to know what the correct time is. 

 

If the clock is slow/fast, you will know when you are late or early for appointments.  

 

You seem to know the doomsayers are incorrect.  

[Eieretertje Hayday]

It does not look that it got anywhere near kp5, even.

many were secretly hoping for kp7, so the could throw a wire up a tree and charge their tesla for free

[Drax Spacex]

It is curious.

The primary factor for KP4 seems to be negative Bz.  Neither solar wind nor particle density is even at moderate levels currently.

The CME either very late, or high speed solar wind caught up to the CME and canceled it out somehow, or the full halo LASCO puff we saw was actually quite weak, so evenly-distributed that there was little strength in the Earth direction, or any direction, even though it looked to be a head-on hit.

Or, it's just very late.

[Isatsuki San]

23 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said:

It is curious.

The primary factor for KP4 seems to be negative Bz.  Neither solar wind nor particle density is even at moderate levels currently.

The CME either very late, or high speed solar wind caught up to the CME and canceled it out somehow, or the full halo LASCO puff we saw was actually quite weak, so evenly-distributed that there was little strength in the Earth direction, or any direction, even though it looked to be a head-on hit.

Or, it's just very late.

I come to report that the cme impact at 2:39 utc, minor impact, and forming a geomatenic storm seems

[Beliskner]

Do any of you have reading comprehension or just let your pre-conceived notions completely colour your views and do not even bother reading?

The OP is literally asking if Ben Davidson is correct in his prediction that this will be minor 'CME impact should deliver Kp4-6'. 

Several posts proceed to say don't listen to Ben he's a 'doomer' who will say the sky is falling.... and that it's going to be a 4-6 KP event.

I felt compelled to post to point this out as I found it quite hilarious.

 

Edited October 12, 2021 by Beliskner

[Sam Warfel]

Not canceled out, just a little late.  Still definitely a significant CME arrival though, the first head-on strike (non glancing-blow) of Solar Cycle 25!

[Drax Spacex]

Yes, speak of the devil, there it is.  Rapid stairstep increase in both solar wind speed and density at 2021-10-12 01:45 UTC.  G1 (Kp5) conditions currently.

Edited October 12, 2021 by Drax Spacex