im confused on this image from the WSA-Enlil

[farm24]

what does it mean with that big blob of ejecta coming towards earth

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Well it's not big, the event is related to the following:

Quote

Two possible sources were identified: (1) An eruption from AR2865 at 2021-09-05T17:54Z associated with a B7.9 flare that started at 2021-09-05T17:42Z and peaked at 2021-09-05T18:11Z; (2) Eruption from AR2864 at 2021-09-05T18:48Z associated with a B7.9 flare that started at 2021-09-05T18:47Z and peaked at 2021-09-05T18:56Z. There could possibly be two CMEs, but the view is very faint

 

[farm24]

1 hour ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Well it's not big, the event is related to the following:

 

ah i got confused because im use to reading dates day month not month day so i thought this was like some sort of prediction of tomorrow 

Edited September 8, 2021 by farm24

[Czort]

The clock is ticking out there and I guess it goes ahead. Currently shows 05-14.09. How can you mix 09.09?

5 hours ago, farm24 said:

ah i got confused because im use to reading dates day month not month day so i thought this was like some sort of prediction of tomorrow 

 

[Nico Birk]

11 hours ago, Czort said:

The clock is ticking out there and I guess it goes ahead. Currently shows 05-14.09. How can you mix 09.09?

 

He is most likley in a diffrent timezone where yesterday was 08/09/2021

 

17 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Well it's not big, the event is related to the following:

 

I thought it was already there, isnt this why we got aurora. 

How do you know how fast the particles from CMEs are and if they will arrive at this planet.

The time stamps seem more like a guess, more than a week time span. Is this somehow calculated? 

[Vancanneyt Sander]

22 minuten geleden, Nico Birk zei:

How do you know how fast the particles from CMEs are and if they will arrive at this planet.

This is done by modelling the CME, but different models have different outputs and each model has an uncertainty in the arrival time (mostly + and - 6 hours of the predicted arrival). In this case the model runs where with an uncertainty of + and - 20 hours. There is just no very reliable way of predicting the arrival time and it can always come earlier or way later than predicted.