Major magnetosphere disturbance happened at around midnight of 09 july 2021 Video!

[Youcef]

A major fluctuation happened at the start of 09 july 2021, an acceleration can be seen in the batsrus model of the solar wind to 1100km/s before it happened.

I'm not sure if this is related to the disturbance or just a coincidence.

Btw interestingly enough a 6 mag hit california hours after the disturbance ended, whether there is a connection is open to discussion some think there isn't some think there might be a connection

What do you think of all this?

Video: https://youtu.be/dp3nQcUMDyw

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Batsrus is a model and models aren’t flawless so nothing major happened in space weather

earthquakes and space weather aren’t related 

Your post contains false information and thus is fake news. Moderation actions will be taken to prevent the further spread of false information

[Christopher S.]

Fundamentally, Earthquakes are primarily physical. In my independent studies, the only component involving elementary particles directly associated with quakes is the incidence of "ground lightning" - highly uncommon but have been observed before. All other facts point to:

There is no direct or indirect association between space weather and seismic activity. There is no good reason to relate one to the other, except if you wanted to sensationalize information to make your content more clickbait-y, while simultaneously appealing to those who are addicted to fearmongering content(for some reason).

There still lies possibilities in the form of very distant associations for the sake of data points, but these are far from cause-effect relationships, and are currently impossible to sense without evolution or deployment of relevant technologies. However, this conversation can happen outside of your apparent self-promotion campaign, in a more thought-based topic. An anomaly on an instrument and the leaps of logic you trend towards makes for garbage content and discussion.

[helios]

The thing with earthquakes is, they occur frequent and they occur very random.
For authors who are not familiar with stochastics and statistics, it can happen very quickly that they find a correlation by accident (spurious correlation).

A simplified example: I had 3 cups of coffee this morning. For every cup that I had, an earthquake occurred within less than 4 minutes from drinking the cup. 
This is true, but those events have of course nothing to do with each other (I hope!). Drinking the cup took me 9 minutes, one earthquake within a 17 minute time window (4+9+4 minutes) is expected with a high probability in a random (normal) distribution.

Readers who have an understanding of probabilistic theory see the flaws, but it would require a lot of effort to actually disprove the hypothesis in an appropriate manner, so they don't bother, since no harm is done.
Other readers do not have a fundamental understanding and they spread the false conclusion.

Edited July 10, 2021 by helios

[MytiMouse]

Hi

I am new at this but I strongly believe Yousef has something.  Everything on here is individual opinions and even admin can't be certain what is true or false.  that is what a forum is all about.  I have followed earthquakes for years,  just a thing I do.  I am also following the relation to this solar weather and animal species.  ones as small as knats.  I think I will start charting them.  I have noticed there is certainly something going on with humming birds and certain birds and their migration patterns.  If there can be a relation to the moon and when fish bite or don't bite.  Why can't there be a relation between the solar activity and earthquakes?  I also believe we are going to have a carrington event in the near future.  Just my opinion

Yousef.  facebook friend me.  I will create one with this name.   we can share our thoughts on there, although none of it is private, nothing is private.  

Have a Good Day

 

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Well @MytiMouse we already discussed the relation between earthquakes and solar flares on the forum and we had this little graph that says it all:

earthquakes plotted against the solar flares, earthquakes happen all the time and flares come and go in an eleven year cycle. We don’t have an eleven year cycle with earthquakes  

[abc]

@MytiMouseI believe what you said has proved what @helioshave said 

4 hours ago, helios said:

The thing with earthquakes is, they occur frequent and they occur very random.
For authors who are not familiar with stochastics and statistics, it can happen very quickly that they find a correlation by accident (spurious correlation).

A simplified example: I had 3 cups of coffee this morning. For every cup that I had, an earthquake occurred within less than 4 minutes from drinking the cup. 
This is true, but those events have of course nothing to do with each other (I hope!). Drinking the cup took me 9 minutes, one earthquake within a 17 minute time window (4+9+4 minutes) is expected with a high probability in a random (normal) distribution.

Readers who have an understanding of probabilistic theory see the flaws, but it would require a lot of effort to actually disprove the hypothesis in an appropriate manner, so they don't bother, since no harm is done.
Other readers do not have a fundamental understanding and they spread the false conclusion.

I suggest that you should read this. IN addition, solar activity is a result of a change in the magnetic activity, while earthquakes are caused by movement in tectonic plates. How is it possib;e that space weather can affect the structure of the Earth and the movement of tectonic plates? It is not about opinions it just simply doesn't make sense. 

 

32 minutes ago, MytiMouse said:

 If there can be a relation to the moon and when fish bite or don't bite.  Why can't there be a relation between the solar activity and earthquakes?  I also believe we are going to have a carrington event in the near future.  Just my opinion

Well the relation between the moon and animal activity is much more reasonable since moon can influence tidal activity, which may affect water level and hence exert an indirect effect on fish's behaviour. Yet, earthquakes are not influenced by other factors and are based on the pressure on rocks in the earth's crust and when the rocks fracture. 

Finally, regarding the carrignton event. first, it is very awkward to predict such an unusual event with the rate of occurence being less than once per 100 years. Besides, solar activity is very hard to predict in the long term. We may only be able to predict the overall trend such as whether it is strong ro weak instead of whether a very strong cme may occurso your prediction is not very sensible

[Christopher S.]

2 hours ago, MytiMouse said:

Hi

I am new at this but I strongly believe Yousef has something.  Everything on here is individual opinions and even admin can't be certain what is true or false.  that is what a forum is all about.  I have followed earthquakes for years,  just a thing I do.  I am also following the relation to this solar weather and animal species.  ones as small as knats.  I think I will start charting them.  I have noticed there is certainly something going on with humming birds and certain birds and their migration patterns.  If there can be a relation to the moon and when fish bite or don't bite.  Why can't there be a relation between the solar activity and earthquakes?  I also believe we are going to have a carrington event in the near future.  Just my opinion

Yousef.  facebook friend me.  I will create one with this name.   we can share our thoughts on there, although none of it is private, nothing is private.  

Have a Good Day

 

While I applaud your honesty and forthcoming approach, I have to ask: Why would the behavior of the Sun, which follows cycles and acts within predictable parameters(and has for millions of years, based on data pulled from ice cores and conventional scientific theories) have more of an impact on migratory behavior in animals than, say, the climate? What is more impactful in space weather than the dynamically chaotic nature of year-to-year temperature anomalies, changing oceanic currents, and increase in carbon in the atmosphere? Enlighten me, please, because otherwise it sounds like you want there to be a connection between things that are really and truly unrelated.

As for individual opinions - yes, we are human beings and we insert our opinions here on a forum. However, this is a forum of science and education(for the most part, although it wasn't purpose-built for that) and as a result of that, we base our opinions firmly on premises of what we understand to be facts. We must derive logic in creative ways, and deduce fallacious reasoning from our "idea" or "belief" of how the universe works in order to grow and learn. One such example is my question above: I see that you are doing something unique, and it is perfectly fine in my opinion to study what you're studying. However, I feel that you - and not just you, believe me - have overlooked more significant factors in animal behavior.

For instance, in 2019-2020 the fires in Australia wiped out 186,000 square kilometres; 72,000 square miles of habitat for animals. This is not insignificant for Australia and if you think about the "list of places to go" every avian has, Australia lost a few positions on that list and thus a large volume of avians will choose to go elsewhere. That will influence migratory patterns directly and indirectly. This is a relatively recent event, too, so what you see today can very easily be attributed(at least somewhat) to fires in Australia. The burning of that land also attributed greenhouse gases to the atmosphere in a not-so-insignificant way. 

Why then do you think you can separate signal from noise and discern a correlation between what's going on outside our protective shields(atmosphere, magnetosphere, IMF etc.) and what's going on amidst a rapidly changing biome? How are you going to study this, beyond watching animals and pondering to yourself?

[Isatsuki San]

In addition, there is a lot of failure, the solar activity at earthquake, since if it were true, in the special strong events, there had to be a large earthquake, that is, the carriptong event of 1859 would have given a great earthquake, but there is no record of anything, only of a great solar storm, so much is ruled out that solar activity has to do with earthquakes on earth

[Christopher S.]

1 hour ago, Isatsuki San said:

In addition, there is a lot of failure, the solar activity at earthquake, since if it were true, in the special strong events, there had to be a large earthquake, that is, the carriptong event of 1859 would have given a great earthquake, but there is no record of anything, only of a great solar storm, so much is ruled out that solar activity has to do with earthquakes on earth

That is a good point. However, it also assumes the mechanism for quakes is electromagnetic with only positive feedback loops. It is not implausible that space weather can suppress electromagnetic activity in Earth's core and mantle, but we have no real evidence of that.

[Newbie]

Perhaps there was fracking going on near to that site in California where the mag 6 earthquake occurred.

Human activity has caused an increase in seismic activity in recent years. It would make an interesting graph: 'Cause of Earthquake' - Human v's Natural. Solar activity doesn't get a look in.

But wait! doesn't California sit atop the San Andreas fault! Just maybe the plates moved!

Or maybe Helios had another cup of coffee - he didn't tell us about! 😜

Probably getting a bit off topic now - sorry

Edited July 10, 2021 by Newbie

[Sheaxma]

Well, I for one, enjoy Youcef's videos very much as I like that he questions the narrative and offers subject matter to make one ponder. And it is absolutely not fair for him to be accused of fear mongering; he is quite calm, practical, and even presents a nice philosophical quote at the end of every video, he clearly states what are his opinions and observations, and even encourages others to fill in any blanks he comes across or correct him if he's wrong about something. Someone who fear mongers adamantly proclaims to know the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth, and creates panic around the failure to believe and adhere will lead to dire consequences. 
Also, the immediate labeling of mis or dis information creates a shut-down of differing opinions and leaves no room for much-needed discussions and civil debates. Not being able to question anything we're spoon-fed to believe is fact or truth is what can lead us into the much more dangerous slippery slope of the censorship of ideas.

I do not like staying inside of a comfortable bubble of "This is all that I need to know, and I don't need or want to look, see, hear, or feel anything different". I enjoy pushing my  thought boundaries into what I don't know, to explore the new and exciting, to question and implore, to seek answers to the mysteries, etc. And I feel that much of the information that Youcef provides in his videos, which by the way, he puts a lot of time research, and dedication into, is necessary in order to encourage others to scrutinize and analyze what we have been taught our whole lives - he should not be demonized for his differing observations.

[Jesterface23]

Earthquakes caused by space weather events have come up a few times in the past. The chance of solar events triggering an earthquake might as well be 0% with not much to show that it actually even can.

Now look at the title of his video, "Major anomaly in the magnetosphere triggers 6 magnitude quake in Antelope Valley California!".

What do some people think just by reading the title alone?

[Christopher S.]

1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said:

Earthquakes caused by space weather events have come up a few times in the past. The chance of solar events triggering an earthquake might as well be 0% with not much to show that it actually even can.

Now look at the title of his video, "Major anomaly in the magnetosphere triggers 6 magnitude quake in Antelope Valley California!".

What do some people think just by reading the title alone?

That he's full of s***.

1 hour ago, Sheaxma said:

Well, I for one, enjoy Youcef's videos very much as I like that he questions the narrative and offers subject matter to make one ponder. And it is absolutely not fair for him to be accused of fear mongering; he is quite calm, practical, and even presents a nice philosophical quote at the end of every video, he clearly states what are his opinions and observations, and even encourages others to fill in any blanks he comes across or correct him if he's wrong about something. Someone who fear mongers adamantly proclaims to know the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth, and creates panic around the failure to believe and adhere will lead to dire consequences. 
Also, the immediate labeling of mis or dis information creates a shut-down of differing opinions and leaves no room for much-needed discussions and civil debates. Not being able to question anything we're spoon-fed to believe is fact or truth is what can lead us into the much more dangerous slippery slope of the censorship of ideas.

I do not like staying inside of a comfortable bubble of "This is all that I need to know, and I don't need or want to look, see, hear, or feel anything different". I enjoy pushing my  thought boundaries into what I don't know, to explore the new and exciting, to question and implore, to seek answers to the mysteries, etc. And I feel that much of the information that Youcef provides in his videos, which by the way, he puts a lot of time research, and dedication into, is necessary in order to encourage others to scrutinize and analyze what we have been taught our whole lives - he should not be demonized for his differing observations.

The immediate labeling occurs due to his history on this particular forum of creating a bombastic narrative of action and/or doom out of seemingly nothing. For instance, he's latched onto a sensor error and created a narrative about space weather triggering Earthquakes. It does not matter the tone or attitude behind it - it matters what is said and believed. You can be incorrect and a fearmonger without being adamant and assertive...

For you to advocate for this method of delivering information means that you are no better in regards to checking facts and keeping science scientific. Science is not entertainment. It is fact-based. Some of us are entertained by interesting relationships between said facts, others are hopelessly wandering through the internet in search of information that has a particular flavor to it. This is called bias, and it manifests in many different ways.

I agree that being up-front with your personality is more attractive than hiding it away, but really, you sound completely lost.

You know, I believe that thinking "outside the box" is important, and that's why I call out bad rationality. I want you to question the walls of fallacious reasoning you've built around this belief that "if you say something in a certain way, it's automatically accurate" - this is the basis for your sympathy towards Youcef. I'm questioning your narrative. If that bothers you, then your previous comment is a subconscious front designed to keep you from panicking in the face of phenomena that you don't understand the fundamentals of, and you need to do your own research, just like everyone else here.

Edited July 11, 2021 by Christopher S.
Typos, amendments, the whole shebang.

[Archmonoth]

16 hours ago, Sheaxma said:

I do not like staying inside of a comfortable bubble of "This is all that I need to know, and I don't need or want to look, see, hear, or feel anything different". I enjoy pushing my  thought boundaries into what I don't know, to explore the new and exciting, to question and implore, to seek answers to the mysteries, etc. 

 

There is this idea called the Principle of Explosion, which means "From contradiction, anything follows." 

 

Plenty of ways to explore and imagine, but for me, I like reductive mechanisms, to find practical understanding. To falsify, is to define what knowledge can be. 

 

The Earth may exist within the Solar System, but any sub-system, like tectonic plates, can have their own rules and mechanisms without the Sun's influence. (Schema of Specification: any sub-set is a set)

 

There are other ways of navigating wild imagination with practical understanding. How do you navigate wild imagination?

 

Edited July 11, 2021 by Archmonoth