Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 Last year I published an article that the Terminator would be reached around 04-06 2021. Also a significant X-flare is possible between June-December 2021 https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10504257. Think I nailed it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 I have not read your entire paper I don't have time for that but this was an impulsive X1 solar flare. You state that you expect a X10 or higher solar flare before the end of this year. If that will happen I will congratulate you on your prediction as that is a very bold statement. I'd love for that to occur of course but the odds are very much against you. You can shout I nailed it all day if we see such a solar flare this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helios Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 (edited) Yeah... but first let's wait for your superflare. "a possible superflare event in excess of >X100 (!) could happen in June-July 2021" [1] Paper still not withdrawn. PS: I have patrick on my ignore list, but somehow i still see the articles. Edit: Nevermind, I had to specifically enable "block posts" Edited July 4, 2021 by helios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 (edited) Hace 3 horas, Patrick Geryl dijo: El año pasado publiqué un artículo que decía que Terminator se alcanzaría alrededor del 04-06 2021. También es posible un destello X significativo entre junio-diciembre 2021 https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10504257. Creo que lo logré. well well, we'll see if that happens, Edited July 4, 2021 by Isatsuki San Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 4 hours ago, Patrick Geryl said: Last year I published an article that the Terminator would be reached around 04-06 2021. Also a significant X-flare is possible between June-December 2021 https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10504257. Think I nailed it. Patrick, I admire your enthusiasm, and your dedication to your theory, but it is difficult to agree that you have nailed it. As I understand it, the accepted definition for the Terminator is when we see no more low latitude Cycle 24 spots. On that basis the terminator is long past - in July 2020 You also predicted an X10 (or greater) flare between June and December 2021. We have to wait to see about that one, but you cannot reasonably claim the X1.5 from yesterday as proof of your theory. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted July 4, 2021 Author Share Posted July 4, 2021 Sorry... no official announcement that the Terminator has been reached! Surely NOT in 2020! It is a bit more complicated then the definition you say. See the list on my paper for possible X flares. Once the Terminator has been reached... >X10 flares are possible within 6 months... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 6 hours ago, Patrick Geryl said: Last year I published an article that the Terminator would be reached around 04-06 2021. Also a significant X-flare is possible between June-December 2021 https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10504257. Think I nailed it. What does a significant X-flare mean? How are they different than regular X-flares? The other replies suggest X-10 or greater. What is your certainty/credence for the terminator? 30%? 65%? How certain are you about the Terminator? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted July 4, 2021 Author Share Posted July 4, 2021 3 uren geleden, helios zei: Yeah... but first let's wait for your superflare. "a possible superflare event in excess of >X100 (!) could happen in June-July 2021" [1] Paper still not withdrawn. PS: I have patrick on my ignore list, but somehow i still see the articles. Edit: Nevermind, I had to specifically enable "block posts" Made it private. My first theory about the start of Solar Cycle 25 was also wrong (when I found out, I made it private). Then I found the faults and the corrected paper was published in Astrophysics and Space Science: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342766380_A_Formula_for_the_Start_of_a_New_Sunspot_Cycle I will be racking my brain for the faults... Will be back (from the movie the Terminator) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abc Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 So has the terninator been reached ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 (edited) 57 minutes ago, Patrick Geryl said: Lo hizo privado. Mi primera teoría sobre el inicio del ciclo solar 25 también estaba equivocada (cuando me enteré, la hice privada). Luego encontré las fallas y el artículo corregido se publicó en Astrophysics and Space Science: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342766380_A_Formula_for_the_Start_of_a_New_Sunspot_Cycle Estaré devanando mi cerebro por las fallas ... Regresaré (de la película Terminator) So the theory of the super solar flare x100 failed and that will not happen, the super solar flare x100?? Edited July 4, 2021 by Isatsuki San Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 1 uur geleden, abc zei: So has the terninator been reached ? It says so in the title 😉 and it was expected that it already happened a while ago as no SC24 regions where spotted in the last year so it was clear SC24 was already terminated 1 uur terug, Isatsuki San zei: So the theory of the super solar flare x100 failed and that will not happen, the super solar flare x100?? It seems obvious it won’t be happening 😉 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 5 hours ago, abc said: So has the terninator been reached ? I also ask this question. Solar minimum was said to have occurred around Dec 2019, but this could only be determined retrospectively. So does solar minimum and the terminator event mean the same thing? It would be good to have a definitive answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abc Posted July 4, 2021 Share Posted July 4, 2021 50 minutes ago, Newbie said: I also ask this question. Solar minimum was said to have occurred around Dec 2019, but this could only be determined retrospectively. So does solar minimum and the terminator event mean the same thing? It would be good to have a definitive answer. no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 (edited) Can't get more definite than that. 😃 Pardon my laziness/ignorance. 😝 So I read up a little on it. Terminator events occur around one year after solar minimum. This is going on the approximately 140 years of scientific observations up until the present. If everyone agrees when solar minimum took place for SC24 (which I'm sure everyone does agree)! (tongue in cheek)! It shouldn't be too difficult to give a 'ball park' time when the terminator event occurred. Some folk consider they've 'nailed it' Somewhere down the track we'll know the answer. The sun is predictable in it's unpredictability and can always throw us a curved ball. That's why we all love studying it and talking about it and are on this forum! Have a good day everyone Edited July 5, 2021 by Newbie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher S. Posted July 5, 2021 Share Posted July 5, 2021 16 hours ago, Marcel de Bont said: I have not read your entire paper I don't have time for that but this was an impulsive X1 solar flare. You state that you expect a X10 or higher solar flare before the end of this year. If that will happen I will congratulate you on your prediction as that is a very bold statement. I'd love for that to occur of course but the odds are very much against you. You can shout I nailed it all day if we see such a solar flare this year. I would like to echo your comment and sentiment. 😄 Long time no see, by the way! I trust you've been very busy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 On 7/4/2021 at 5:36 PM, Patrick Geryl said: Sorry... no official announcement that the Terminator has been reached! Surely NOT in 2020! It is a bit more complicated then the definition you say. See the list on my paper for possible X flares. Once the Terminator has been reached... >X10 flares are possible within 6 months... O.K. then, if as you say "it is more complicated than that" what is it that leads you to claim that the terminator has been reached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted July 6, 2021 Share Posted July 6, 2021 Op 5/7/2021 om 05:23, Christopher S. zei: I would like to echo your comment and sentiment. 😄 Long time no see, by the way! I trust you've been very busy. Thanks for your comment. I am not so active on the forums that is correct but I always keep an eye out for significant solar events to cover those if needed. The past few months have been relatively quiet space weather wise so yeah, I have been more in the background. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 On 7/4/2021 at 5:36 PM, Patrick Geryl said: Sorry... no official announcement that the Terminator has been reached! Surely NOT in 2020! It is a bit more complicated then the definition you say. See the list on my paper for possible X flares. Once the Terminator has been reached... >X10 flares are possible within 6 months... NCAR certainly predicted a terminator in the first half of 2020, and that seems to be consistent with observations. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/07/190724090241.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted July 16, 2021 Author Share Posted July 16, 2021 (edited) Anybody an idea where the really massive blast on the farside occurred? It for sure was a serious X flare… Happened on July 15 Edited July 16, 2021 by Patrick Geryl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 The only reference I can find for anything like that is a CME on the 13th July, possibly linked to sunspot 2838 that produced the X1.5 flare on this side. https://spaceweather.com/archive.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abc Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 14 hours ago, Patrick Geryl said: Anybody an idea where the really massive blast on the farside occurred? It for sure was a serious X flare… Happened on July 15 Couldnt it be an Mflare? A long duration M flare can also produce a magnificent CME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 There are 3 likely possible options. A C-Class, M-Class, or X-Class. We will never know how strong the flare was. Stronger CMEs don't always come from the strongest flares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedreamon Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 (edited) 47 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: There are 3 likely possible options. A C-Class, M-Class, or X-Class. We will never know how strong the flare was. Stronger CMEs don't always come from the strongest flares. That's a very good point, but I kinda think the latest one on 7/15-7/16 might've been X-Class. The CME looked incredibly/worryingly dense... maybe even as dense as the one on 7/23/2012? That's just a guess though since I've never seen the LASCO C2 video/image for that one. Have there ever been any CMEs that aren't X-Class that were as dense as that third one from 7/15-7/16? Edited July 17, 2021 by Bedreamon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 (edited) We haven't had anything comparable to the July 23rd, 2012 CME since that CME its self. No need to worry. Edited July 17, 2021 by Jesterface23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abc Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Can we determine where is the source region from the coronagraph (where is the core of the cme? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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