Sunspot 2822 a β- γ sunspot group... HOW LONG HAS IT BEEN?!

[Madison Gonzalez]

What will happen with this sunspot? if it becomes a β- γ- δ sunspot, we might have an X flare for the first time in 3 1/2 YEARS!!!!

[abc]

The delta sunspot is still very small and insignificant so x flare is unlikely, swpc predicts 1 percent

[Madison Gonzalez]

remember, it could be a situation like hurricane dorian in 2019, except in solar weather. Hurricane Dorian became a C5 when it was only forecasted to become a C1

[abc]

We have to await the rapid development of the sunspot but it does.not have that potential currently

[Vancanneyt Sander]

5 uren geleden, Madison Gonzalez zei:

What will happen with this sunspot?

Well, if you have looked at our sunspot page you’ll see that it has shrunk in size and spots which means the sunspot region is in a state of decay so the odds for solar flares decrease.

[Christopher S.]

6 hours ago, Madison Gonzalez said:

remember, it could be a situation like hurricane dorian in 2019, except in solar weather. Hurricane Dorian became a C5 when it was only forecasted to become a C1

You could cherry pick any failed prediction, and it still wouldn't be the same as predicting sunspot development and flares. Yes, there is a degree of uncertainty, and that sits at 1%. Roll with that.

[Madison Gonzalez]

i understand. but im just saying that there can always be a possibility

[abc]

4 hours ago, Madison Gonzalez said:

i understand. but im just saying that there can always be a possibility

Unlike hurricanes, which updates like once per six hours, you can always monitor the sunspots when you look at the magnetograms so they are different cases

[Jesterface23]

As a weather person, I don't think tropical systems are the correct thing to compare to sunspots regions.

Try to take some time to learn more about sunspots having an interest in them and solar flares.

[Christopher S.]

23 hours ago, abc said:

Unlike hurricanes, which updates like once per six hours, you can always monitor the sunspots when you look at the magnetograms so they are different cases

Actually, you can monitor hurricanes independently using 1-minute data, given that it is within sight of GOES-16 and GOES-17. NHC puts out updates more frequently whenever necessary. Here is a website you can use: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-northernhemi-01-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Just so you know 😎

[Madison Gonzalez]

well, sunspot may not be a beta- gamma- delta sunspot but it is a beta- delta sunspot!

and a G3 storm too!