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sunspot 2822 and solar flare M 3.9


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39 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Again no ;) it’s slowly decaying so even in the marked circle there won’t be any development 

I thought the condition for delta spots is that the pneumbrae are together for opposite polarities regardless of the development

Then if the opposite polarities really become very close together like sticking. To each other, does it count as a delta spot

 

Also, it's the surrounding spots that are decaying, instead of the central ones(?)

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First of all, it needs to be a clear sunspot, so it should be black instead of a greyish little dot (these little ones are so weak). The sunspot needs to be in the penumbral area of a spot with opposite polarity. With 2822 we have a greyish little dot hanging on the outerpart of the penumbral area. To conclude: it isn’t really a real sunspot yet (so it’s too weak) and it’s place is horribly bad.

Now let’s compare it with a badass sunspot region that caused an X2,2…

202FA76A-15FB-4313-9CE2-5449E5951074.jpeg

I think this image says enough ;) 

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Think of it in terms of energy in a system: If a cluster of small spots is decaying it is synonymous to losing its stored energy. It requires energy to store energy, so if it's already leaking out energy then there's not going to be development of those spots. If a spot is growing in area and more spots begin forming like a cluster, it is storing energy, meaning that it is developing. This spot is decaying, so further development isn't going to happen with this particular numbered spot.

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4 uren geleden, abc zei:

However, it is shown in SWL that is a beta delta spot

Correct, although it has a delta-ish structure as the region fades the odds fade. The X-ray flux confirms its getting very quiet and spot decay confirms it as well. So despite being beta-delta, it’s over and out. Up to the next active region 🤷‍♂️

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Yet, there isnt a line that can be drawn to separate the opposite polarities(?)

IS the next spot turning a spotless plage but it seems that it is not from the image of the sun, indicated by bright and circular magnetic lines. alternatively, is it possible that the spots are still not visible and the plage turns in first?

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5 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

 it’s over and out. Up to the next active region 🤷‍♂️

A decay can be temporary though, spots may grow again and increase complexity/activity.

Regarding the current geomagnetic activity: The wind speed seems to be too slow for it to be from the filament eruption of the 9th?

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7 minutes ago, helios said:

A decay can be temporary though, spots may grow again and increase complexity/activity.

Regarding the current geomagnetic activity: The wind speed seems to be too slow for it to be from the filament eruption of the 9th?

There are also signs of rebound of activity based on the C1.5 flare

But the IMF and wind density is quite high

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36 minuten geleden, abc zei:

But the IMF and wind density is quite high

That’s because the faint CME of a filament eruption has arrived. Bit stronger than anticipated

 

37 minuten geleden, abc zei:

There are also signs of rebound of activity based on the C1.5 flare

Yeah it’s now become one group with a bigger delta as that spot with the main polarity.

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9 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

That’s because the faint CME of a filament eruption has arrived. Bit stronger than anticipated

 

Yeah it’s now become one group with a bigger delta as that spot with the main polarity.e region is anticipated ?

Does it mean that development of the acti

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The background flux has risen to above a5 at the moment of writing due to the potential sunspot region rotating to the visible disk at the limb. I think it may rise to B eventually ,signifying  the activeness of the region

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2 hours ago, abc said:

The background flux has risen to above a5 at the moment of writing due to the potential sunspot region rotating to the visible disk at the limb. I think it may rise to B eventually ,signifying  the activeness of the region

I wouldn't get my hopes up. There hasn't been a CME on CATUS in a few days.

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This might be due to impulsive flares, but based on the solar ultravioley imager as well as the background flux, i believe that its tsrength should not be underestimated. The bacjground flux has already reached B

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While learning new things and exercising the knowledge is interesting, it would be ludicrous for you to attempt to commentate on every indication of solar activity. Just wait for complex and large sunspots to appear. There's good in what you're doing, but I fear that your effort is wasted on benign data points.

Honestly, I would enjoy a play-by-play when activity is noteworthy. It helps with abstraction in my own research.

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4 uren geleden, Christopher S. zei:

While learning new things and exercising the knowledge is interesting, it would be ludicrous for you to attempt to commentate on every indication of solar activity. Just wait for complex and large sunspots to appear. There's good in what you're doing, but I fear that your effort is wasted on benign data points.

Honestly, I would enjoy a play-by-play when activity is noteworthy. It helps with abstraction in my own research.

Christopher i hope you noticed that I correctly predicted that sunspots 2822 and 2823 (coming sunspots forum) would go down as all other sunspots. Earliest possible activity (if on this side) this Midday, May 17

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I honestly hadn't noticed, but I'll take your word for it. Predictions that hit the mark using unconvential means have a bit of marvel and sensationalism... it makes otherwise common things seem so much more interesting and exciting. However, consistency is more important.

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6 hours ago, Patrick Geryl said:

Christopher i hope you noticed that I correctly predicted that sunspots 2822 and 2823 (coming sunspots forum) would go down as all other sunspots. Earliest possible activity (if on this side) this Midday, May 17

The what's the predictions for the coming sunspot 2824?

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