sunspot 2822 and solar flare M 3.9

[Vancanneyt Sander]

B-flares aren't interesting  so it doesn't really matter from where that one came. 

The one responsible for the CME was likely old 2817, we'll see in a few days if it's still has spots or comes around as a spotless plage. 

[abc]

Is this a cme?

[Christopher S.]

😐

[Vancanneyt Sander]

6 uren geleden, abc zei:

I can foresee that the coming sunspot will be quite an active one

Nope 😉 you haven’t seen a really active region yet. A real active region behind the limb should already raise the background x-ray flux with many active loops that would be seen above the limb and maybe even a limb M-flare if it was a good active region. 

but it’s nice and calm so I don’t expect much 😉

[abc]

I know that it is unlikely that it is avery active region. But at least the background flux has been raised by a bit so I think that it is not too calm and not too active. Maybe some c flares

[Bedreamon]

8 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Nope 😉 you haven’t seen a really active region yet. A real active region behind the limb should already raise the background x-ray flux with many active loops that would be seen above the limb and maybe even a limb M-flare if it was a good active region. 

but it’s nice and calm so I don’t expect much 😉

But isn't there that one region turning into view (that was formerly 2817 I think) that was sputtering and letting out a CME earlier on May 6th? Or is that the one in particular you were talking about?

[Christopher S.]

C flares are quite common outside of solar minimum, the period where it is truly quiet. We are at the point now where seeing them is like seeing small, isolated clouds in desert climates. What you want to see is developing sunspots, growing rapidly or at least consistently...

In fact @abc you should look in the archive here on SWL at some of the top flares - then look at the sunspots by clicking the number(2673 for example). Study spots like that one, especially its development day to day, or from one solar rotation to the next.

You can't really determine anything about that spot from the flux measurement which would help you to predict how active it will be - you need to be able to identify the magnetic configuration, and for that we need higher resolution images than Stereo Ahead can take.

[helios]

The region is crackling a bit in the 94 Angström movies, and was source of small CMEs during the past days. So in relation to the solar minimum I also think it can be said that the region is a bit active but I'm already happy to see C-class flares at this point.

 

[Vancanneyt Sander]

I have to agree @helios, x-ray background flux raised to B-level so it’s optimistic in this period of the solar cycle. 
returning region 2817 looks fairly simple but it’s not possible to determine it’s complexity yet because it’s still so close on the limb. C-flares look likely

update: M-flare in progress!

[Tristan]

Looks like you have got your flare! M1.8 so far

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Pretty strong and long duration event currently M3,8! This wil be an impressive one 😍

[Tristan]

M3.91 in the end. A coronal shockwave is visible, so a CME has likely been released. It is unlikely to be earth-directed unfortunately as the region is still too close to the limb.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

That’s correct Tristan, good summary 👍

 

[Drax Spacex]

Surprise!   Probability 1% R1 Radio Blackout.  Probability 1% M-class flare.  And both happened with this flare.  A good example of a statistical outlier event.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

It was no surprise this isn't Earth directed  CME is less impressive then the flare itself 😛 So we've made a small YT video on our channel to take a pretty nice look back at the flare 🙂 

 

  

[abc]

It seems that a delta spot seems to be developing

This M3.9 flare has a lot.of.properties common with the m4.4 last yr. It is isolated and there aren't even any c flare accompanying 

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Maybe but the region is still too close to the limb to determine it's exact magnetic structure

[abc]

13 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Pretty strong and long duration event currently M3,8! This wil be an impressive one 😍

Is that long duration ?

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Yes, it was about an hour. Just look at the archives x-ray graph and you can clearly see it’s a long duration events. If it was an impulsive M-flare it would be totally different (5 minutes or so)

[abc]

First C1.5 flare, 8 hours after an M flare 

3 potential delta spots 

[Tristan]

59 minutes ago, abc said:

 

3 potential delta spots 

Only the bottom area has much chance of forming a delta (and it is quite close to doing so.) The large spot is +ve polarity and the apparent -ve area is an artifact of foreshortening as the spot is still close to the limb. The other region you have highlighted appears to be a -ve polarity spot making this a beta-gamma region (just about as it is still quite a small spot.)

[abc]

Thanks @Tristan I thought that spot composed of opposite polarities since they belonged to pneumbrae of different colours

Edited May 8, 2021 by abc
I.understand now

[Tristan]

4 minutes ago, abc said:

I'm confused about the spot you circled

I circled it because it makes it impossible to separate the +ve and -ve polarity spots with a straight line, therefore it is responsible for making the region beta-gamma. If it was not there it would only be beta.

[abc]

I mean that I thought the circled spot is delta since it has opposite polarities 

[Tristan]

There is no penumbra though so probably a little to small for that as of yet. The only umbra I see looks -ve polarity. The spot you highlighted in the south has umbrae of both polarities, if the penumbra joins up it will be a delta, so seem a better bet.