WAHOO! FIRST M FLARE SINCE NOVEMBER! (do you think more are coming?)

[Madison Gonzalez]

Do you think more m flares are coming? please take my poll!

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Well if you look at SC24, two years after the solar minimum we had 8 X-class flares and 111 M-class flares so statistically we would have an X-class flare within the year 😉 

[Madison Gonzalez]

yay! I might be able to see the aurora for the first time in my life

[Drax Spacex]

I estimate a 96% probability of at least one X flare between now and 2021-12-31.  Given prior data of 8 X flares over 24 months, assume the probability is 8/24=0.333=33% of an X flare in any single month.  Then use the formula for "probability of at least one" to calculate the probability of at least one X flare will occur over the next 8 months (May-December):  p(at least one X flare over next 8 months)=
1-(1-0.333)^8=0.9608=96%

[Madison Gonzalez]

I want a long solar flare so I can see the aurora at my latitude which is a little over 40 degrees

[Jesterface23]

It is the potential of a Coronal Mass Ejection associated from a Solar Flare that you want to look out for. There are several factors at play, but a CME with a travel time sub 38 hours might be needed.

[abc]

8 hours ago, Madison Gonzalez said:

yay! I might be able to see the aurora for the first time in my life

I thought auroras are associated with geomagnetic storms instead of solar flares (?)

[Vancanneyt Sander]

33 minuten geleden, SFx zei:

Also, what’s the lowest the Aurora has ever been, someone got maybe a map?

See this topic: 

 

[Madison Gonzalez]

I think an M or X flare will be coming with the next 2 weeks because there have been about 6 C flares in the past day or so

[daniel anderson]

I'm not so sure that  M or X flare will be coming with the next 2 weeks .

[Vancanneyt Sander]

6 uren geleden, Madison Gonzalez zei:

I think an M or X flare will be coming with the next 2 weeks because there have been about 6 C flares in the past day or so

With 2817 now rotating behind the limb solar activity will decline as that was the most active region on the solar disk and it was already showing signs of decay indicating that the odds for bigger flares decreased. Same is with 2816, although it launched a long duration C-flare, it has been relatively quiet and the magnetic configuration isn’t good enough for strong solar flares.

unless a new active region shows up and rapidly grows into a magnetically complex region, there’s little chance for M and zero chance for X-class solar flares

[Christopher S.]

I hope for some strong flares ASAP, but do I think it will happen? Nah. I wouldn't expect anything until activity ramps up rapidly.

[Madison Gonzalez]

You're probably wrong Christopher. SpaceWeatherLive is giving a 65% chance for C flares today, and 10% for M. This shows solar activity is ramping up

[Archmonoth]

1 hour ago, Madison Gonzalez said:

You're probably wrong Christopher. SpaceWeatherLive is giving a 65% chance for C flares today, and 10% for M. This shows solar activity is ramping up

 

My understanding of probability, is the % is a reflection of knowledge. We think its 65% because of recent activates, and current information. 

 

Determinism will drive you mad

 

 

 

[Drax Spacex]

3 hours ago, Archmonoth said:

 

My understanding of probability, is the % is a reflection of knowledge. We think its 65% because of recent activates, and current information. 

 

Determinism will drive you mad

 

 

 

Indeed.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.  Your mileage may vary.  Results are not typical.  I am a paid spokesperson (not really).

But yes probabilities are just that - they are not certainties.  Their accuracies are dependent on the validity of the models and on the predictability of the phenomenon itself.

And there's always the possibility of a particular event being a statistical outlier, an event on the tail of the probability distribution, one that happens out-of-the-blue and is unexpected.  But if you expect that these will occasionally occur then, it's not really unexpected I suppose, more like a surprise.

Edited April 23, 2021 by Drax Spacex
not really a paid spokesperson

[Drax Spacex]

 

Do you think m and x flares are coming within the year?

Yes, both M and X wins!