X flare possible this year?

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

Mcintosh et al predicted a large sunspot cycle IF THE TERMINATOR WAS EARLY. They were wrong on the early part...

I explained that in a paper that was almost published (didn't want to pay the fee of 2,000 *$)... But they found it worthwhile to be published on the official site ESSOAR in September 2020 here:

 

https://www.essoar.org/doi/10.1002/essoar.10504257.1

Remark: English not perfect and some other minor wrong quotations.

Conclusion: Large X flares (X15) are INDEED possible this year... If the Terminator happens between next month and June 2021...

Remember 1989...

Edited February 19, 2021 by Patrick Geryl

[Isatsuki San]

 

25 minutes ago, Patrick Geryl said:

Mcintosh et al predicted a large sunspot cycle IF THE TERMINATOR WAS EARLY. They were wrong on the early part...

I explained that in a paper that was almost published (didn't want to pay the fee of 2,000 *$)... But they found it worthwhile to be published on the official site ESSOAR in September 2020 here:

https://www.essoar.org/doi/10.1002/essoar.10504257.1

 

Conclusion: Large X flares (X15) are INDEED possible this year... If the Terminator happens between next month and June 2021...

May I ask one thing, what is the "Terminator" that you are talking about?

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

3 minuten geleden, Isatsuki San zei:

 

May I ask one thing, what is the "Terminator" that you are talking about?

Read article and links. It is the time frame when large sunspots in BOTH hemispheres will pop up and become active.

Edited February 19, 2021 by Patrick Geryl

[Isatsuki San]

8 minutes ago, Patrick Geryl said:

Leer artículo y enlaces. Es el período de tiempo en el que aparecerán grandes manchas solares en AMBOS hemisferios y se activarán.

oh, and you say that astrological events help to see large solar spots or solar flares?

12 minutes ago, Patrick Geryl said:

Read article and links. It is the time frame when large sunspots in BOTH hemispheres will pop up and become active.

You know something, if a cycle similar to 21 happens again, I don't think so much, I know I don't know much about solar cycles, or how it is handled ... but my more research there is a lot of coincidence that this solar cycle may be seemed more to 24 although there will be large solar spots

And let's not forget, of cycle 24 that in the maximum there was a large solar spot in the solar maximum and there could also be in this cycle but not so much

[Christopher S.]

10 hours ago, Isatsuki San said:

astrological

Astrology =/= Astronomy. One deals in forecasting your fortune via horoscopes, and the other(in this case, Solar Dynamics) forecasts Solar events. I'm not sure whether you know this and are pejoratively remarking on Geryl's work, or the translation isn't working properly. Either way, it isn't a nice thing to say.

As far as an x-class flare goes, we'd have to see it to believe it. Predictions only have value to the world when they are consistently within a reasonable margin of error AND are actionable, meaning that confidence among several scientific authorities, who themselves are in a position to warn the greater masses, is high. I'm not discrediting this prediction, to be perfectly clear.

Maybe some worthwhile and unsolicited advice I would give is that you shouldn't bother trying to convince us, Geryl, focus on convincing the big agencies. But still, it would help if people would really actually read his research. This isn't really the community for extremely in-depth, specialized discourse. It's more or less a boundary layer, keeping information clear and concise in order to either combat misinformation, or give people a good idea of how the aurora manifests.

[Bedreamon]

6 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

As far as an x-class flare goes, we'd have to see it to believe it. Predictions only have value to the world when they are consistently within a reasonable margin of error AND are actionable, meaning that confidence among several scientific authorities, who themselves are in a position to warn the greater masses, is high. I'm not discrediting this prediction, to be perfectly clear.

It's the X-Flare prediction that I don't believe. It's only a prediction from one person (two if you count that one Twitter user I tried to figure out). And even then, I don't believe it since you can only predict a flare when there's actually stuff present on the sun.

[Christopher S.]

1 hour ago, Bedreamon said:

It's the X-Flare prediction that I don't believe. It's only a prediction from one person (two if you count that one Twitter user I tried to figure out). And even then, I don't believe it since you can only predict a flare when there's actually stuff present on the sun.

Your reasoning for disbelief is probably shared among most people - myself included. We use the concurrent sunspot activity to predict the likelihood of flares and their magnitude, based on their size and magnetic configuration. What Geryl is attempting is novel, however. His method is unique and looks to a longer-term. Think: the difference between meteorology(weather forecasting) and climatology(long-term weather trend forecasting). One considers the concurrent patterns in the atmosphere, while the other considers factors such as the ENSO, temperature anomaly, comparison of averages over the years, precipitation amounts, etc etc.

The only problem is whether his method is convincing. It showed some promise when we had that burst of activity a few months ago, but I reckon there's some inconsistency to it, and he has to grasp at straws to explain why. This method needs work, imo.

[Bedreamon]

8 minutes ago, Christopher S. said:

Your reasoning for disbelief is probably shared among most people - myself included. We use the concurrent sunspot activity to predict the likelihood of flares and their magnitude, based on their size and magnetic configuration. What Geryl is attempting is novel, however. His method is unique and looks to a longer-term. Think: the difference between meteorology(weather forecasting) and climatology(long-term weather trend forecasting). One considers the concurrent patterns in the atmosphere, while the other considers factors such as the ENSO, temperature anomaly, comparison of averages over the years, precipitation amounts, etc etc.

The only problem is whether his method is convincing. It showed some promise when we had that burst of activity a few months ago, but I reckon there's some inconsistency to it, and he has to grasp at straws to explain why. This method needs work, imo.

A climatology equivalent for space weather would be amazingly useful, but I doubt it'll happen any time soon. Like you said with November's activity, there was inconsistency, which I think is a sticking point to predicting space weather vs. geological weather.

Maybe Geryl's method will work, but it probably requires a lot more testing for it to work, and (like you said) there are some straws that are being grasped so far.

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

We have new sunspot activity. The sunspots react different before the Terminator. I found the theory after 2014 and thus after the activity started in both hemispheres. Give me a few more weeks. By the way I send the above article with the X flare prediction to the Journal of Geophysical Research. It is considered the top leading journal. What could I have done more? I didn’t have the 2,000 dollar fee requested for publication in Space Physics... you can send the link to the people who need to prepare us...

[Bedreamon]

1 hour ago, Patrick Geryl said:

We have new sunspot activity. The sunspots react different before the Terminator. I found the theory after 2014 and thus after the activity started in both hemispheres. Give me a few more weeks. By the way I send the above article with the X flare prediction to the Journal of Geophysical Research. It is considered the top leading journal. What could I have done more? I didn’t have the 2,000 dollar fee requested for publication in Space Physics... you can send the link to the people who need to prepare us...

I doubt that anybody would listen to the research because of how new and novel it is. There's also the fact that I don't think a lot of people would believe the prediction of an X-Class flare within the timespan of June-December of THIS year due to (like @Christopher S. says) how solar activity is always predicted with what's currently present on the sun.

Like you said though, a few more weeks would determine whether or not this comes to fruition, I guess. I just doubt it simply because of both the current ways of predicting solar activity and this research paper's novelty.

[Christopher S.]

There is a stark difference between something that is an accepted method of prediction and forecasting, and what is a frontier of science that begs for more attention from astronomers. While you may have stumbled upon something that could be made useful, it is not ready yet in its current state. You need to refine your research and consider different perspectives, and this method has to mature in order to function in current prediction modeling. I am not at all asking you to spend an exorbitant amount of money to get your work published in a big-name journal - I don't even read such journals! I'm asking that you dial back your enthusiasm, Geryl, and consider that your methods need proofing. That's all I can say.

[Bedreamon]

1 hour ago, Christopher S. said:

There is a stark difference between something that is an accepted method of prediction and forecasting, and what is a frontier of science that begs for more attention from astronomers. While you may have stumbled upon something that could be made useful, it is not ready yet in its current state. You need to refine your research and consider different perspectives, and this method has to mature in order to function in current prediction modeling. I am not at all asking you to spend an exorbitant amount of money to get your work published in a big-name journal - I don't even read such journals! I'm asking that you dial back your enthusiasm, Geryl, and consider that your methods need proofing. That's all I can say.

That's a perfect way of putting it. This could be a new form of forecasting, but we don't know for sure yet. It needs more testing and whatnot.

It's why I cast doubt on the >X15 flare prediction between June-December, as well as the 'you can send the link to the people who need to prepare us' when we don't know how truly predicitive/accurate/etc. this method is.