I want a question about the cme

[Isatsuki San]

In seen is a report to speak of, what would happen if a "perfect cme" hit the Earth, and I wanted to ask, how likely is it that what happens a "perfect cme" hits the Earth?

Edited January 28, 2021 by Isatsuki San
a spelling problem

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Define “perfect” 😝

in 2003 we had the Halloween storms where one CME was in my opinion a perfect CME. An X17 class solar flare caused extreme geomagnetic storm and is one of the strongest in recent history. As the solar flare occurred nearly center disc, it was a full perfect hit.

 ps: we survived that one 😝

[Isatsuki San]

 

31 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Definir "perfecto" 😝

en 2003 tuvimos las tormentas de Halloween donde una CME fue en mi opinión una CME perfecta . Una erupción solar de clase X17 provocó una tormenta geomagnética extrema y es una de las más fuertes de la historia reciente. Como la llamarada solar se produjo casi en el centro del disco, fue un golpe perfecto.

 ps: sobrevivimos a ese 😝

"perfect cme" that exceeds the speed of 3000 km / s, and that there will be another cme that clears its way to the Earth, what is the probability that this happens?

[Vancanneyt Sander]

0,00001% chance of that one 😝 or once per solar cycle (but in sc24 we haven’t had one)

 

ps: 3000km/sec can be achieved when it launches from the Sun but the speed decreases as it slows down by travelling through space. The mentioned X17 had a speed of 2000km/sec. Among the thousands of CMEs observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) from 1996 to 2015, only a couple have speeds exceeding 3000 km/s. 

[Isatsuki San]

28 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

0,00001% chance of that one 😝 or once per solar cycle (but in sc24 we haven’t had one)

 

ps: 3000km/sec can be achieved when it launches from the Sun but the speed decreases as it slows down by travelling through space. The mentioned X17 had a speed of 2000km/sec. Among the thousands of CMEs observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) from 1996 to 2015, only a couple have speeds exceeding 3000 km/s. 

Thank you very much for giving your time to answer my questions, I appreciate it very much

[dynastyll]

4 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

0,00001% chance of that one 😝 or once per solar cycle (but in sc24 we haven’t had one)

 

ps: 3000km/sec can be achieved when it launches from the Sun but the speed decreases as it slows down by travelling through space. The mentioned X17 had a speed of 2000km/sec. Among the thousands of CMEs observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) from 1996 to 2015, only a couple have speeds exceeding 3000 km/s. 

SC24 had one, but it was from the far-side, July 23rd, 2012.

[SpaceStormChaser]

I read that same report, linked from spaceweather.com, and they mentioned that while storms like that occur about once every solar cycle, in most cases they are not earth directed, nor a “perfect cme,” meaning that they do not follow one prior. As already pointed out, they have a very small percentage of a chance to be earth directed and do significant damage. Is it a matter of time? Only time will tell. But it would not be something I would stress over. As the report said, maybe get a faraday cage and generator, if you’re worried about global repercussions. 😉

[Isatsuki San]

10 hours ago, dynastyll said:

SC24 tenía uno, pero era del otro lado, el 23 de julio de 2012.

yes, that cme that was carrington leve think    

Hace 9 horas, SpaceStormChaser dijo:

Leí ese mismo informe, vinculado desde spaceweather.com, y mencionaron que, si bien tormentas como esa ocurren aproximadamente una vez en cada ciclo solar, en la mayoría de los casos no están dirigidas a la Tierra, ni son un "cme perfecto", lo que significa que no siguen una anterior. Como ya se señaló, tienen un porcentaje muy pequeño de posibilidades de dirigirse a la tierra y causar un daño significativo. ¿Es cuestión de tiempo? Sólo el tiempo dirá. Pero no sería algo por lo que me estresaría. Como decía el informe, tal vez consiga una jaula de faraday y un generador, si le preocupan las repercusiones globales.😉

I am very grateful that you answer me 

[Christopher S.]

8 hours ago, Isatsuki San said:

yes, that cme that was carrington leve think    

I am very grateful that you answer me 

Holy moly! I haven't seen the WSA-Enlil on that in a long time. I forgot how voracious that was.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Op 28/1/2021 om 21:15, Vancanneyt Sander zei:

Define “perfect” 😝

in 2003 we had the Halloween storms where one CME was in my opinion a perfect CME. An X17 class solar flare caused extreme geomagnetic storm and is one of the strongest in recent history. As the solar flare occurred nearly center disc, it was a full perfect hit.

to complete my previous post, this was perfect 🙂 

X17

X28