daniel anderson Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 a prominent astrophysicist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Scott McIntosh, foresees the sun going gangbusters. The study, with contributions from several of his colleagues, forecasts the nascent sunspot cycle to become one of the strongest ever recorded. Should we worry about this prediction or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 No need to be worried, it's a prediction like many others that we've seen in the past and predictions can be correct or wrong. A stronger solar cycle wasn't one of the agreed options, but with the activity of November there is a chance that this cycle can be more active but only time will tell who's right or wrong. A cycle like solar cycle 23 would be great as it was one of the so called "modern maximum" with very high activity with many geomagnetic storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daniel anderson Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 I don't understand in one twitter post, someone predicting a Carrington event to take place on June 21st. That's go to be wrong. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post CalleB Posted December 21, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted December 21, 2020 No one can predict a solar flare on a particular date in the future. The topic of Solar Cycle 25 and its potential of being one of the most, if not THE most active solar cycle on record is still only speculation. The data for making that prediction is yet too small, and if, and only if, the upcoming solar cycle 25 develops in to the most active solar cycle on record, there is still no one that can predict a Carrington Event, with out any active regions (sunspots) on the sun. It's pure speculation and theory at the moment. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedreamon Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 (edited) 8 hours ago, daniel anderson said: I don't understand in one twitter post, someone predicting a Carrington event to take place on June 21st. That's go to be wrong. I know, right? You can't predict that something specific like that will happen 6 months down the line, especially if it's a freaking >X10 flare that hits the planet, be it glancing or direct. The person has a blogspot and seems to know what he's talking about, but at the same time, all I see are just scientific words being thrown around. When talking about this stuff on social media, or anywhere IMO, you gotta simplify your words to make it easy to understand. I've been spending hours asking for a simple explanation for how this person got to this conclusion, but got nothing. Nor could I find any YouTube videos on this. Should I link to the Twitter thread to see if anybody could understand it? Also, it's probably nigh impossible to predict such a specific thing will happen within such a specific set of days SIX months from now. Edited December 21, 2020 by Bedreamon To sound nicer and more constructive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedreamon Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 (edited) Yeah, I think I'm thinking too much into it (or worrying too much depending on how you look at it), considering how the prediction for June 21 is both physically impossible to predict half a year from it and the explanation sounds like a bunch of scientific words being thrown together. Not trying to lambast the person, just trying to figure it out. I'll link it for anybody to figure out: Edited December 22, 2020 by Bedreamon Added some words. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Im highly confused about that too. It sounds oddly specific. maybe the Admins have an Idea? This Person throws around Words ive never heard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher S. Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Learn to recognize bullshit. My two cents. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedreamon Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 hours ago, Christopher S. said: Learn to recognize bullshit. My two cents. Yeah, that's true. I was probably just overreacting when I saw it. Also, I tried to get a simple explanation and got (as expected) nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher S. Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Take it for what it's worth - Some people in the "business" of pseudoscience, such as the guy in the twitter post, will arm themselves with big words, jargon, and run-on sentences as a way to confuse and mesmerize others. Sometimes they go one step further and actually cite real material, but the end result is the same: utter nonsense. This is fortunately an example of blatant word gymnastics that don't mean anything - that is to say, there is no science-based meaning or definition to what he's saying. You can arm yourself with wisdom, with more research about the subject, which will help you to distinguish someone like that from an actual scientist who is worth your time and attention. You seem to already be much more wise, in fact! When you were presented with this nonsensical word salad, you wisely doubted the premise of what he said. You questioned the logic, i.e. predicting some "so-called carrington event" more than 6 months in advance, which had no actual evidence to support it. You came here and looked for a second opinion. Frankly, you've got a good head on your shoulders, and your gut instinct drove you to respond to that BS in a constructive and scientifically curious way. To amend, or expand upon, my previous comment... learn to trust your gut instinct. It served you well to bring this up on SWL, and it will continue to help block out those kinds of far-fetched and baseless predictions. The only kind of person who would take such baseless claims at face-value are those who aren't scientifically curious to begin with. To recognize the BS is to be several steps ahead of those who seek attention via manipulation of ignorance and fear. I suppose the next step is to learn to laugh at or simply ignore those types of people. In short, those of you reading should follow this example of skepticism, seeking truth over all else. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daniel anderson Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 On 12/21/2020 at 2:51 PM, Bedreamon said: I know, right? You can't predict that something specific like that will happen 6 months down the line, especially if it's a freaking >X10 flare that hits the planet, be it glancing or direct. The person has a blogspot and seems to know what he's talking about, but at the same time, all I see are just scientific words being thrown around. When talking about this stuff on social media, or anywhere IMO, you gotta simplify your words to make it easy to understand. I've been spending hours asking for a simple explanation for how this person got to this conclusion, but got nothing. Nor could I find any YouTube videos on this. Should I link to the Twitter thread to see if anybody could understand it? Also, it's probably nigh impossible to predict such a specific thing will happen within such a specific set of days SIX months from now. I have to agree. You just can't predict that far in advance. especially if it's a freaking >X10 flare that hits the planet, be it glancing or direct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 (edited) For now, for me seeing everything you are saying, it is very unlikely to predict a large solar eruption 6 months before, and more, you know which day is specifically rare. Edited December 23, 2020 by Isatsuki San I was wrong is a word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 On 12/22/2020 at 7:26 PM, Christopher S. said: ...seeking truth over all else. This is how you become blind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daniel anderson Posted December 27, 2020 Author Share Posted December 27, 2020 On 12/21/2020 at 1:21 PM, CalleB said: No one can predict a solar flare on a particular date in the future. The topic of Solar Cycle 25 and its potential of being one of the most, if not THE most active solar cycle on record is still only speculation. The data for making that prediction is yet too small, and if, and only if, the upcoming solar cycle 25 develops in to the most active solar cycle on record, there is still no one that can predict a Carrington Event, with out any active regions (sunspots) on the sun. It's pure speculation and theory at the moment. I agree. Nobody can predict a solar flare on a particular date. Heck, the Sun could be quiet in June. The topic of Solar Cycle 25 and its potential of being one of the most, if not THE most active solar cycle on record is still only speculation, i wouldn't really worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedreamon Posted December 27, 2020 Share Posted December 27, 2020 (edited) On 12/24/2020 at 11:44 AM, Archmonoth said: This is how you become blind. What does that mean in this context? Do you think the June 21, 2021 """"""""""""prediction"""""""""""" is real? Edited December 27, 2020 by Bedreamon Added more quotation marks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 9 uren geleden, Bedreamon zei: What does that mean in this context? Do you think the June 21, 2021 """"""""""""prediction"""""""""""" is real? It’s NOT real. There is no way you can predict solar activity so much upfront. You can only predict the activity once a sunspot emerges. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 On 12/20/2020 at 8:43 PM, daniel anderson said: a prominent astrophysicist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Scott McIntosh, foresees the sun going gangbusters. The study, with contributions from several of his colleagues, forecasts the nascent sunspot cycle to become one of the strongest ever recorded. Should we worry about this prediction or not? Another paper from the National Center for Atmospheric Research predicted the opposite - that solar cycle 25 would be the weakest in 100 years: https://opensky.ucar.edu/islandora/object/articles%3A22007 It's like playing the roulette wheel by placing bets on all the numbers, thereby being assured that one will win. To cover the gamut there's probably another paper out there that predicts SC25 will be of average strength. Winner winner! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtripp6 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 I see words like pseudoscience and someone in the "business" and BS linked to this guy who works for NCAR and coming up with critical science. That's how alven and parker got started. To dismiss it as a whim seems stupid. I'm sure we'll be seeing more from him. Only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 I believe that you have misinterpreted the comments. They do not relate to the scientist at NCAR, but to somebody else using pseudo-scientific language on Twitter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtripp6 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 sorry, i did not read all the story, but to see whats in the future for the sun you only need to look to the past. in 1859 (see historical declination viewer) the north pole started going the other way. you need to look at all the solar cycles and the clues it left behind. a big clue that nobody figured out yet is gobekli tepi. if its telling us what i think its telling us we only have a few generations to figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedreamon Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 (edited) While it is true that an event like that will happen at some point, I highly doubt it'll be on June 21, 2021 like that Twitter user's "prediction" said. Especially since it's being "predicted" now, which is scientifically impossible. Edited December 30, 2020 by Bedreamon Change wording 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 (edited) On 12/27/2020 at 3:15 PM, Bedreamon said: What does that mean in this context? Do you think the June 21, 2021 """"""""""""prediction"""""""""""" is real? No, not at all. I was making an abstract statement about the phrase "..over all else." Edited December 30, 2020 by Archmonoth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Halls Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 Today is June 22, 2021. As many of you who posted previously correctly stated - you cannot predict the future like this. The Twitter 'warrior' was wrong. Nothing happened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now