Should we be worried about this?

[daniel anderson]

I was looking at Gong farside and it looks like a big sunspot. Is Gong that reliable?

 

[Vancanneyt Sander]

You can’t rely on it for the size of sunspot regions, it mostly indicates that there might be a reasonably sized sunspot group transiting on the far side. 

[daniel anderson]

I usually use Stereo Ahead, it's the most reliable tool.

[Christopher S.]

If only Stereo-Behind hadn't gone silent and was still usable. The most familiar case of nearly identical satellites where one had anomalous issues that the other didn't is GOES-17 and GOES-16; the former has cooling system issues that affects the ABI instrument, while the latter does not. These are intra-generationally identical if I'm remembering correctly.

Edited November 16, 2020 by Christopher S.
removed incorrect information and provided link

[Marcel de Bont]

14 uren geleden, daniel anderson zei:

I usually use Stereo Ahead, it's the most reliable tool.

Agreed. That is why we do not have this GONG model on our website anymore. I find it too unreliable and too much guess work goes into it. STEREO Ahead EUVI 195 is a much better source to use if you want to get an idea of that is going on on the far side. It is a shame however that we lost STEREO Behind.

[daniel anderson]

It is so unreliable. As we see here.

But shows this.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

That's why we don't have GONG on our website as it's unreliable. 

[dynastyll]

It was designated a Strong active region on Stanford's Far-Side Seismic Solar Monitor. This is 2020's first region reaching their threshold. Since those happen often during maximum, I would not be very concerned and it is likely only a modest region and a precursor of what is yet to come. This region's reported strength is 1094 gauss which is low compared to the large regions that are capable of X flares. It also has around 8 days before it rotates in earth view and will likely be stable and in a state of decay by then. If this strength is right, it will be double of the region 2741. But it is 1/8 of 2192 so this region is nowhere near the behemoths. I will eventually look for a region near this size, but my conclusion is that I would not worry about this region, it is a welcome surprise though.

[helios]

Regarding the title;

There would be no reason to be worried if there was a big sunspot.

[daniel anderson]

18 hours ago, dynastyll said:

It was designated a Strong active region on Stanford's Far-Side Seismic Solar Monitor. This is 2020's first region reaching their threshold. Since those happen often during maximum, I would not be very concerned and it is likely only a modest region and a precursor of what is yet to come. This region's reported strength is 1094 gauss which is low compared to the large regions that are capable of X flares. It also has around 8 days before it rotates in earth view and will likely be stable and in a state of decay by then. If this strength is right, it will be double of the region 2741. But it is 1/8 of 2192 so this region is nowhere near the behemoths. I will eventually look for a region near this size, but my conclusion is that I would not worry about this region, it is a welcome surprise though.

It's not visible on Stereo Ahead, so i'd say it's not that big.

 

[dynastyll]

22 minutes ago, daniel anderson said:

It's not visible on Stereo Ahead, so i'd say it's not that big.

 

Turning into view, you can only see the magnetic canopy, Stereo A only sees part of the farside.

[daniel anderson]

That bright area concerns me a lot. I know, the activity is supposed to ramp up, but i didn't expect it to be that big.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Some bright regions can even be spotless plages so nothing to panic about. And even if it was a big behemoth of a sunspot region, nothing to worry about. Check our archive of biggest sunspot regions to get an idea of how big a region can get.

[Marcel de Bont]

Just checked STEREO Ahead and it seems there is indeed a large and active region that has developed there. We will see in a few days what it looks like but as Sander points out. We have had some really gigantic sunspot regions that threw enormous flares at us in the past. We're still here and we will remain here for some time to come. Really nothing to loose sleep over.

[daniel anderson]

Yeah. How many time shave we had some really gigantic sunspot regions that threw enormous flares at us in the past and it didn't affect anything?

[Vancanneyt Sander]

Check the archive and top 50 lists for that  it all depends if the flare occurs in the Earth striking zone or not. For example a flare at the limb wouldn’t affect us.

[MinYoongi]

Hey @Vancanneyt Sander and @Marcel de Bont. Nice to read your replies here! A topic that really interests me.

 

I still struggle with excitement for more solar activity. I just watched so many fear-mongering videos about huge blackouts etc etc.

I can see the Solar flux is in the 100's, and those Regions are large... Are we at a huge risk? There was someone in this thread talking about gaus and strength and risk.. but i couldnt find it. Please help me see this more relaxed and be happy about it! Have a nice evening otherwise   ! My favorite Forum. Greetings from Germany 🙂 

[dynastyll]

18 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

I can see the Solar flux is in the 100's, and those Regions are large... Are we at a huge risk?

Solar flux routinely hits 100+ in every phase of the typical solar cycle, even isolated bouts of it in minimums. The regions seem fairly stable and have a low chance for M flares. M flares are more of an excitement than anything and may slightly affect communications and shortwave radio. These regions aren't a major threat, just large and bright, therefore bringing the 10.7cm SFI to 100.

[Christopher S.]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

I just watched so many fear-mongering videos about huge blackouts etc etc.

... Are we at a huge risk?

You should really avoid watching those videos. While the subject of them is scientific in nature, the narrative within them is not. You know this too! You call them what they are - fear-mongering. Never trust a source who appears as trying to be educational, but clearly have an ulterior motive. In most cases, these types of videos and narratives are anti-government. In other cases, it's just clickbait - the YT algorithm, and likely other video platforms now, will reward your curiosity of clicking one video of this nature with a slew of suggestions(on the side of the page) for many other videos like it. This is a rabbit hole, and we've all been there with one subject or another.

Think about life as a pedestrian. There are some roads you're not supposed to walk alongside, and some that you can. There's always the danger of a car swerving suddenly towards you, but that happens so rarely and to so few people, that so long as you have situational awareness, you will never be hurt by these cars.

That's the danger of flares. As long as you have batteries, candles, and long-lasting food items stored well, there is no blackout that can cause you any amount of harm. They happen so infrequently and in such an isolated part of the world that it isn't something you should live your life afraid of. There are so many more imminent dangers inside and outside of a city-wide blackout scenario - which would be temporary - that come from a lack of preparedness. Food, water, shelter = safe.

Consider those close to you, or in your surroundings as well. They will feed off of your energy. A sense of confidence and knowing what to do can keep them all safe from panic or rash action, too. After all, we've gone thousands of years in civilized society without electricity until relatively recently. What's a week without internet going to do to us?

Edited November 25, 2020 by Christopher S.
Grammar

[Drax Spacex]

I for one am not dismayed by what I see going on up there.  For some amateur radio operators, it's a welcome sign.  In the past month, the 17m, 15m, and 12m bands have become usable for ionospheric skywave propagation, correlated with increasing SFI and sunspot number.  As solar activity continues to increase, 10m and 6m bands should also open up.

Edited November 25, 2020 by Drax Spacex
skywave vs bounce