How normal/abnormal is the current behavior of sunspots?

[goldminor]

This is the first time where I have ever paid attention to what happens on the sun during a solar minimum. How would any of you describe this recent pattern of sunspots which regularly fade in and out, while never completing a full transit across the face of the sun? Is it normal at this late stage of the solar minimum to have ARs/sunspots form and disappear so rapidly? I say this as I noted that there were recently two ARs in the south which started to develop further, but were never given a number. Later in the day SpaceWeather removed the circled areas where the ARs were trying to form up. Is this typical behavior when coming out of the tail end of a minimum period?

[Marcel de Bont]

I'd say this is very normal behavior. We are just climbing out of solar minimum. While sunspot regions should pop up more regularly in 2021, I wouldn't expect large and long lasting sunspots regions to pop up before 2022 if SC25 is going to be similar to SC24. Not saying it wont happen but it is not something we should expect to be a regular occurrence already next year.

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-cycle

 

[goldminor]

My initial thought was driven by a glitch when loading the SpaceWeather page prior to making this post. In the morning I noted the two circled areas where these two ARs were developing. Then later in the day I glanced again at what was going on and the circled areas were no longer on the page. That is what generated the thought. Then after posting I took another look at the main SW page, and the two circled areas were once again shown on the sidebar at the main page. Some mysterious glitch I guess.

I would add that I see now that I had a wrong conception on how exactly the minimum would come to an end where I expected to see a greater number of more consistent, long lived spots by now, and through the end of this year. Another side to that was my wondering what is the process as far as is known that holds the sunspots back from further development, and that causes the fading in and out of further development of the magnetic fields of the sunspots as has been seen over the last month. I do not recall the advent of this minimum period showing a similar pattern. Hence the question "Is this typical behavior".

[Stephen Roy]

Marcel,

Would you kindly consider updating the chart which you've posted above on say a quarterly basis as I'm sure many folk who log in will be fascinated to see the sunspot progression over the next year or two vis a vis the solar cycle 25 prediction? Thanks. S

[Vancanneyt Sander]

1 uur geleden, Stephen Roy zei:

Marcel,

Would you kindly consider updating the chart which you've posted above on say a quarterly basis as I'm sure many folk who log in will be fascinated to see the sunspot progression over the next year or two vis a vis the solar cycle 25 prediction? Thanks. S

Our solar cycle progression page on the site/app updates every month with the latest data. No need to update it here  

[Stephen Roy]

Hi VS can you please post the link to the Solar Cycle Progression page as the search engine doesn't recognise the term. Thanks.

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-cycle. Doh!

[Drax Spacex]

On 10/8/2020 at 10:48 PM, goldminor said:

This is the first time where I have ever paid attention to what happens on the sun during a solar minimum. How would any of you describe this recent pattern of sunspots which regularly fade in and out, while never completing a full transit across the face of the sun? Is it normal at this late stage of the solar minimum to have ARs/sunspots form and disappear so rapidly? I say this as I noted that there were recently two ARs in the south which started to develop further, but were never given a number. Later in the day SpaceWeather removed the circled areas where the ARs were trying to form up. Is this typical behavior when coming out of the tail end of a minimum period?

Yes.  The butterfly diagram tells the story about what to expect in terms of sunspot number and location at different times in the solar cycle.  It is interesting that most sunspots at the beginning of the solar cycle form at mid-latitudes (North or South) far from the equator.

https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml