Relating the Start to the Terminator of Solar Cycle 25 and a Significant X-Flare Event

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

After peer review, our upgraded article was published on Earth and Space Science Open Archive. 

https://www.essoar.org/doi/abs/10.1002/essoar.10504257.1

 

Edited September 23, 2020 by Patrick Geryl
Letters too big

[Maxime Fiset]

I'm sorry, but I can't help but to ask : 

 

What do you mean, in lines 551-552, by 

 

Quote

Another factor to be considered is a large X-ray solar flare (>x10.0), which could give serious blow to the earth’s weakenedmagnetic field.

 

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

An X10 could cripple a part of the worldwide grid system. You live in Canada... Read what happened in 1989...

The solar X flares after the terminator have serious power. 

March 1989 geomagnetic storm - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm

Mind: The magnetic field has weakened considerably since then and also shifted from place...

The solar flux is rising... More complex sunspots can be expected

Edited September 25, 2020 by Patrick Geryl
More info

[Maxime Fiset]

Yes, I know very well about the 1989 incident. In Québec. Not Canada. Well, legally yes. But no.

 

I just want to know where your predictions on "complexe sunspots" and your opinion on the "weakening" magnetic field come from.

 

Because I've never heard of this.

[Christopher S.]

43 minutes ago, Maxime Fiset said:

the "weakening" magnetic field

Nasa wrote an article some time ago about it. It's more of a blurb, but supported by a few studies of geological ferrous or otherwise magnetic records. If necessary, you can search for more concrete and technical sources than this.

https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2003/29dec_magneticfield/

46 minutes ago, Maxime Fiset said:

In Québec. Not Canada. Well, legally yes. But no.

Quebec is more to Canada than Puerto Rico is to the US. It's not like Taiwan is to China. To create a distinction that doesn't exist is inviting a needless dialogue. You live in Canada.

[MinYoongi]

Hey, I'm a bit confused.

I mean, last Solar cycle didnt have X10, how can you "predict" it by 2021? 

 

Quote

"Another factor to be considered is a large X-ray solar flare (>x10.0), which could give 551a serious blow to the earth’s weakenedmagnetic field. This could happen somewhere between June and December2021."

This sounds alot like Fearmongering. I dont like this at all, its just unneccessarily scary to people like me.

[Maxime Fiset]

9 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

Nasa wrote an article some time ago about it. It's more of a blurb, but supported by a few studies of geological ferrous or otherwise magnetic records. If necessary, you can search for more concrete and technical sources than this.

https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2003/29dec_magneticfield/

Quebec is more to Canada than Puerto Rico is to the US. It's not like Taiwan is to China. To create a distinction that doesn't exist is inviting a needless dialogue. You live in Canada.

Stop playing as a moderator here.

I am not Canadian, I am Québécois. If you know nothing about this, shut it.

[Christopher S.]

1 minute ago, Maxime Fiset said:

Stop playing as a moderator here.

I am not Canadian, I am Québécois. If you know nothing about this, shut it.

Playing as a moderator, and attempting to simplify the discussion in lieu of your tangential remarks for the sake of moving it forward are not one in the same. Here you are getting fussy and trying to derail another topic, twice in a row, now. I'm just a guy posting in this forum like you - there's no need to be hostile in every thread.

 

27 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

This sounds alot like Fearmongering. I dont like this at all, its just unneccessarily scary to people like me.

An X10.0 or greater flare could happen, and Patrick Geryl has a method he has posted about previously in which he believes certain alignments of three planets, including dwarf planets and the Sun, may induce sunspot activity. Perhaps he references information we can find about where certain celestial bodies will be in that time period for that prediction. The odds of this being Earth-directed or a direct impact are quite slim, as there are no official predictions of a flare during that time from other sources.

Remember that this will be an electronic event, not a life-altering event. Many people would like to convince others in the act of fearmongering that power grids going down means the end but it really doesn't. Power grids are primarily copper wires, transformers, and other mechanical components. Replaceable.

[MinYoongi]

3 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

Playing as a moderator, and attempting to simplify the discussion in lieu of your tangential remarks for the sake of moving it forward are not one in the same. Here you are getting fussy and trying to derail another topic, twice in a row, now. I'm just a guy posting in this forum like you - there's no need to be hostile in every thread.

 

An X10.0 or greater flare could happen, and Patrick Geryl has a method he has posted about previously in which he believes certain alignments of three planets, including dwarf planets and the Sun, may induce sunspot activity. Perhaps he references information we can find about where certain celestial bodies will be in that time period for that prediction. The odds of this being Earth-directed or a direct impact are quite slim, as there are no official predictions of a flare during that time from other sources.

Remember that this will be an electronic event, not a life-altering event. Many people would like to convince others in the act of fearmongering that power grids going down means the end but it really doesn't. Power grids are primarily copper wires, transformers, and other mechanical components. Replaceable.

 Hey, thanks for your reply.

Considering this Post is from someone that claimed the end of the world 2012 due to Solar Flares, and made HUGE amounts of money and media with fearmongering, im pissed the *** off about this Forum Thread. Its just really unneccessary. The Site owners try their best to go AGAINST this end of civilization fearmongering stuff but yeah. Idk, im mad about it. My Sun related anxiety is back now.

[Christopher S.]

12 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Hey, thanks for your reply.

Considering this Post is from someone that claimed the end of the world 2012 due to Solar Flares, and made HUGE amounts of money and media with fearmongering, im pissed the *** off about this Forum Thread. Its just really unneccessary. The Site owners try their best to go AGAINST this end of civilization fearmongering stuff but yeah. Idk, im mad about it. My Sun related anxiety is back now.

I completely understand. I believe the more accurate term for Geryl's "parlay" so to speak is alarmist and not intended to invoke a sense of fear. While an alarm may induce panic in some, its intended use is to spread immediate awareness of something requiring immediate action. The panic response is a secondary and wholly biological factor that often clouds one's mind of the actions needing to be taken. The issue here is that an alarmist position is only going to induce fear and panic, because the course of action to be taken is unclear, and unscripted.

Typically you would only pull a fire alarm because it lets people know to engage in the response that has been practiced - the fire drills. Line up, head count, nearest exit, standby together at a safe distance. What drills have we practiced for a potential widespread power outage? As an amateur meteorologist, I've observed the destruction wrought from more commonplace disasters, such as flooding and tropical storm-force wind damage, tornadoes, so on and so forth - whole communities are shattered by destruction, but they rebuild, despite not having any power. These communities recover despite no power, no home, no plumbing. In the case of a widespread power grid failure... that's quite minor in comparison.

Humanity is stronger than what is shown externally.

I would deduce from this alarmist reckoning that there is simply nothing that needs to be done, nor can be done. The Sun is almighty. It has erupted violently in the past and directly affected modern society(i.e. electricity-based) negatively. However, all of the damage has been reversed. We can and will persevere, as individuals and as communities, no matter what happens. Keep batteries stored well, know where to get firewood, and keep a month's supply of food on hand, so there will be no solar flare that can put you in a state of depravity.