Mckinnon Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 Hey guys... i was wondering if you could answer a question or 2 to help me out with some anxiety... i seen that solar cycle 25 started on dec of 2019 with that being said what can happen in solar maximum ? Can it get bad? If not please explain... again thank you for takeing the time to ease my nervousness hahah. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher S. Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 As we are just departing from Solar Minimum into the next cycle, it will be a few years before reaching Solar Maximum. The primary concern at all times - not only the Maximum but any time there is notable Solar activity - is a Coronal Mass Ejection. CMEs have been occurring at expected intervals for as long as our understanding of the Solar Cycle has been established. More during Maximum, less during Minimum. You can check out a list of storms that have arrived at Earth and the impacts they've had here as these are the most notable in recent human history. You can see that the most damage incurred was a power outage in some areas, due to electrical current inductions from the atmosphere above. Some machines get damaged in areas most vulnerable during a Solar Storm. These do not pose any imminent risk to life. No Solar Storm has ever been recorded to have caused death, or harm. It may be disputed that we are exposed to some radiation during these events, but these are extremes and outliers. In other words, don't worry about CMEs. One exception would be in the face of a possible Carrington Event which is effectively the same as I described earlier, but on a larger scale. Electronic components may s*** the bed, but we'd be otherwise physically unaffected(save a few shocks, similar to when you get an ESD from touching a metal object while you are charged). In the most extreme of circumstances, major electronic systems would fail, but these are components that are already attached to a circuit. Replacement components may be perfectly fine afterward, and society will trudge on. I want to assure you that the danger of Solar Maximum, which comes around every 11 years predictably, is not one to life and limb, but instead to a computer sitting at home plugged in and running. Objects can be replaced, however, your life is precious! And so you are right to be a bit anxious, but as many may come to assure you, you would not notice such events occurring if not for Auroras and the collective "crapping out" of computers in vulnerable areas. What are vulnerable regions? Well, there's the South American Anomaly, which I don't know more about than any seasoned astronomer or geologist. I presume Nova Scotia hasn't drifted across the equator into that part of the world since I last viewed GOES satellite imagery. The northern-most latitudes(just above Nova Scotia on the maps) will be less shielded from electromagnetic influence than areas at lower latitude, due to the "shape" of Earth's geomagnetic field. I believe that during a large-scale CME event on Earth that Auroras and electrostatic induction will be plenty possible, but again, it will be harmful to computers, and not to humans. You would only be able to tell what is happening without technology because of Aurora Borealis(Australis in the southern hemisphere). With technology, your computer might get fried - I recommend wrapping your computer in a blanket and shoving it into a closet in your home if a large CME is forecast to hit Earth. I guarantee that mainstream publications, and especially this website, will let you know when one of these is observed, and you will have plenty of time to protect your electronics. In the meantime of such an event, go outside at night and observe the beauty of the phenomenon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxime Fiset Posted September 16, 2020 Share Posted September 16, 2020 4 hours ago, Mckinnon said: Hey guys... i was wondering if you could answer a question or 2 to help me out with some anxiety... i seen that solar cycle 25 started on dec of 2019 with that being said what can happen in solar maximum ? Can it get bad? If not please explain... again thank you for takeing the time to ease my nervousness hahah. Christopher's answer is really good. If I may add, as far as I know, the last big issues we had with a major CME was in 1989, during the Hydro-Québec solar event. During this event, the canadian sheld (a geological mass covering most of northern Québec) served as a "reflector" for the charged field distortions caused by an X-class CME, because of its thickness and high content in ferromagnetic minerals. Since then, major grids have been upgraded with mitigation systems. It means it would take HELLUVA CME to knock them down permanently : every grid can go off for 2-3 days without major issues, that's okay. But real, long-term damage to them is highly unlikely. It would take a Carrington-class event to maybe cause such a damage extent. Please all feel free to correct me here, eh! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm (Hydro-Québec solar event) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_1859_geomagnetic_storm (Carrington event) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mckinnon Posted September 16, 2020 Author Share Posted September 16, 2020 Thank you ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ron NL Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 (edited) Peaks (both max or min) pose a " Risk for Pandemics " (verifyable statistical fact ) The longer the flat-part in the peak ... the more risk (unregular bahaviour, loss of synch ) From studying the Sun (Cycles, Radiofrequencies, Doppler-Shift) and Biology ... a lot can be explained and even predicted. These are my new findings ... i als have studied all data from this unique pandemic ... it's my new "theory" My theory is "controversial"... some will not agree with it ... mostly because it involves several different sciences that they didn't study My theory is based on existing research from all those areas ... pure modern science ! Based on this ... i estimate (Emperical, Statistical) : Chance or Severity of a Pandemic @ Solar-Max in Cycle-25 ... significant less then we had now (2019/2020) The length of the flat part in solar-max & solar-min is proportional to the chance of pandemics The length of this last minimal was exceptionally long ... the chance that the next peak will be that long also ... is minimal The longer the flat part ... the more chance of Pandemics (loss of synch, immune-disorders) There's allways Pandemics ... every 5,5 yr ... its normal ... nothing to worry about. More here : https://www.facebook.com/groups/147312296606308 Edited September 17, 2020 by Ron NL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher S. Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Ron NL said: the chance of pandemics As this is not a theory and isn't really related to the question Mckinnon has asked, I think you should be pushing your ideas in another thread instead of posting them here. Besides, the lad has anxiety and you're simply agitating that. This is a poor choice of venue to debate or argue, so let's not discuss it here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mckinnon Posted September 18, 2020 Author Share Posted September 18, 2020 Thanks Christopher. The point of this thread was just to ask if something could happen with a solar flare or a cme hitting earth and pretty much roasting us... i know it sounds foolish for me to think that but it is something that bothers me from time to time and this community has been more them helpful and welcomeing with all my stupid questions lmao so thanks guys and gals cheers! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Novitiate Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 Agree that Christopher and Maxime provided a fairly comprehensive assessment of regional risk in the case of a Large X-Class Flare/CME. One additional source of damage which is not very easily restorable would be the hundreds of near Earth orbit satellites. Complicating this vulnerability is the rapidly declining strength of our planet's magnetic shield associated with the migration of the magnetic poles. As the planetary field strength declines, the threshold for various complications of Flares/CMEs is reduced. There are more speculative websites predicting chances of magnetic pole reversal and an unprotected Earth (Both CMEs and Cosmic Rays). Such sites are rife with uncertainties. Certainly, given historical records of pole reversal, we appear to be overdue... but being overdue is not "more likely", perhaps like flipping a coin. Still, geological and astronomical timescales are large, human life spans are relatively short and Disaster Movies, Novels and Scenarios are entertaining. --The Novitiate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ron NL Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 https://www.google.com/search?q=solar-activity+vs+virus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 Ron, we have a very specific forum and even a thread where you can discuss theories like the one you try to shove us down our throats right now. But this is not the forum or thread to push a very controversial agenda like the ongoing pandemic. Unless you have something constructive, not related to alternative science to post about I suggest you do not post in this thread anymore. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 What's more constructive? Believing in a hoax, or the search for truth lolol. Ignorance is bliss, but the truth will set you free 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxime Fiset Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 This is probably the last time I comment on the board. This pseudoscience garbage is making me sick. I'm off. I'm sorry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher S. Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 5 hours ago, Maxime Fiset said: This is probably the last time I comment on the board. This pseudoscience garbage is making me sick. I'm off. I'm sorry. Relax, Maxime. This isn't the first or last time you'll see a troll on the internet. I'm sure Greg is just cranky and is doing his weekly attention-seeking - I hate to be so dismissive but given his history(and his interests as stated on his profile) it's impossible to take his comments seriously. As for Ron, he's at least got his heart in the right place, sort of; he's just defiant to a fault. So defiant, in fact, that criticizing his inability or unwillingness to use the scientific method for any of his efforts or claims results in him doubling-down, as evidenced here by ignoring my earlier comment about topic relevance and just posting a link to a google search. That's not how you prove things in the real world, that's how kids these days argue on social media. That said, I understand why this would drive you away from wanting to interact with him, but surely you realize these two characters I've described represent only themselves, not the rest of us. The average SWL visitor is surely capable of seeing them for what they are, not giving them the gratification they seek(which for the trolls is to have people such as yourself leave the forum in a huff) - you will be depriving SWL of your constructive posts and helpful attitude, two things I'm sure have been appreciated, for what reason? Do you mind answering that in a message? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 16 uren geleden, Greg zei: What's more constructive? Believing in a hoax, or the search for truth lolol. Ignorance is bliss, but the truth will set you free You can believe in all you want, you can search as much as you want. We live in a free world. But this thread or forum is not the free world. This is our home, the home of SpaceWeatherLive and in our home we follow our rules, not yours. We value everyone on here but we have a few simple rules we want everyone to follow to make sure this place remains a happy place for everyone who wishes to engage with fellow visitors of our site. Cant follow the rules? Then there is going to be a problem. The last thing we wish to do is enforce a more stricter policy on these boards but if that is what is needed so the majority of our users can enjoy these message boards.. well so be it. We have a specific forum for alternative science so stick to it. If those posts starts to spread outside of that forum to threads like this where people genuinely seek for help and advice than that is a problem we are going to tackle head on if we have to. I'm sorry for hijacking your thread Mckinnon, I hope you the posts from people like Maxim and Christopher were of help. You guys did some great work helping Mckinnon out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mckinnon Posted September 21, 2020 Author Share Posted September 21, 2020 No need to apologize i agree with you guys. Thanks again fellas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxime Fiset Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 19 hours ago, Christopher S. said: Relax, Maxime. This isn't the first or last time you'll see a troll on the internet. I'm sure Greg is just cranky and is doing his weekly attention-seeking - I hate to be so dismissive but given his history(and his interests as stated on his profile) it's impossible to take his comments seriously. As for Ron, he's at least got his heart in the right place, sort of; he's just defiant to a fault. So defiant, in fact, that criticizing his inability or unwillingness to use the scientific method for any of his efforts or claims results in him doubling-down, as evidenced here by ignoring my earlier comment about topic relevance and just posting a link to a google search. That's not how you prove things in the real world, that's how kids these days argue on social media. That said, I understand why this would drive you away from wanting to interact with him, but surely you realize these two characters I've described represent only themselves, not the rest of us. The average SWL visitor is surely capable of seeing them for what they are, not giving them the gratification they seek(which for the trolls is to have people such as yourself leave the forum in a huff) - you will be depriving SWL of your constructive posts and helpful attitude, two things I'm sure have been appreciated, for what reason? Do you mind answering that in a message? I have worked as a project manager for the Center for Prevention of Radicalisation Leading to Violence, based in Montréal, for 3 years. My background is that of a former-neonazi-now-political-scientist, and former believer in conspiracy theories. After three years, hundreds of media interviews, two documentaries and right after the Christchurch terrorist attack, I had a burn-out, succeeded by a MAJOR depressive phase with suicidal tendencies. Quite obviously, seeing this kind of garbage-posting triggers my empathy to the maximum level imaginable. I have flashbacks of my own past, and it brings me back to a mindset I do not wish to feel ever again. That's why I will be taking a break from the boards. I can't fathom them. And I don't have the energy to educate them, for I know that they actually cannot be educated : their problem comes from somewhere we cannot reach. They need psychological help. Something I did, in my previous career, and that I do not wish to do anymore. I hope y'all understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 When your world view clashes with REALITY, it can be a little unsettling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ron NL Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 (edited) @Marcel de Bont Quote alternative science Why you call this "alternative science"...practically everything i said is from existing research ! i provide all the links and existing papers in my facebook-group Now you want to censor me for talking "alternative" or maybe even "pseudoscience" ? so in fact you are calling all the research and researchers ... that i link to "alternative", approved and mostly peer-to-peer ... you call that "alternative" ...etc ? The problem is obviously that you have not read or studied those papers so because you have not read them ...you call them: nonsense ..not serious , pseudo or alternative . Yes that is some work ...you probably dont want to invest the time Before you reply ... check out my fb-group ...and see the papers ...read them ! dont forget to check them for validity ... as being real science or real research https://www.facebook.com/groups/147312296606308 @Christopher S. Christopher ...expects me to explain everything here on this forum ... i should provide all the links, turn every thread or comment into some kind of "full fledged complete online publication" ? So everytime i answer someones question like with the Epilepsy case ..then i need to include my complete research ? ... but i'm doing that ... i usually include a link to my facebook-group with all that research Someone who would be interested can read all the research there sad enough a little chaotic cause that is how facebook works/. So what is the problem ? .. you can verify what i'm saying ... by reading the research papers i refer to ! Edited September 22, 2020 by Ron NL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ron NL Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 (edited) In addition ... there is a huge thread (7 full pages !) in this forum Which discusses a possible Solar to Pandemic relation. that thread is most certainly NOT in the "alternative" department but now when i say something on the same subject it suddenly needs to move to ""alternative" Double standards ? ... do you know yourself what you want with this forum ? And more in addition ... let me show that a lot of serious and even peer to peer approved research exist which connects solar-activity with pandemics are those researchers and their institutions all "alternative people" , "yogi's" , "hippies" ... smoking to much mariuana ? https://www.google.com/search?q=solar-activty+vs+pandemics Edited September 22, 2020 by Ron NL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 (edited) @Ron NL There is a difference. In this forum, Solar activity, I shared my research on Coronal Mass Ejections. That just happens to be solar activity. The result of solar activity on us, people, is something different. Edited September 22, 2020 by Jesterface23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 Quote Why you call this "alternative science"...practically everything i said is from existing research ! Because it is. An unproven theory by people like yourself. You want to hear the proven theory: someone ate a badly cooked bat in China. 14 uren geleden, Ron NL zei: In addition ... there is a huge thread (7 full pages !) in this forum Which discusses a possible Solar to Pandemic relation. I know... and it is in a forum we specifically made for these kind of topics. That's why I am allowing that thread right now, despite it not at all representing what SWL stands for. But as I explained earlier we want to welcome as many people as possible with as many views as possible but I want it this kind of chat to stay in the Other forum. Simple rules. If not I am sure there are other forums out there with many more people who also think coronal holes cause earthquakes and those kind of things. Quote but now when i say something on the same subject it suddenly needs to move to ""alternative" Double standards ? ... do you know yourself what you want with this forum ? I am pretty sure I've been very clear about that. You are in the wrong forum. You have your thread in the Other forum. I don't want these kind of controversial topics spilling over to this forum which is for main stream space weather science, proven theories. Etc. Tell me if that is a problem and I will make sure SpaceWeatherLive becomes 100% free of topics about alternative space weather science. Saves me the headache of going trough all of this every day after work. Maxime and Greg I removed the two posts that were above mine. I don't think I need to explain why I hope. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 Yeah, sorry my fault for responding lolol I agree with both you guy but marcel, 90 percent of all peer reviewed journal are worth nothing because of who funds the research. So if I trust journals or other peer reviewed works,,,,I'd be on your side marcel,,,,BUT,LOOK AT ALL THE CENSORSHIP. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Novitiate Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 This thread started with an honest inquiry based on concern about potential geomagnetic and electromagnetic consequences of Solar Flares, CMEs and a potentially weakening planetary magnetic field. The thread should be directed at clarifying scientifically reproducible phenomenon adhering to the scientific method. It dishonors the honest question first asked by McKinnon. Marcel & SWL have provided amply venues to explore personal areas of interest. The need to usurp discourse and insert subject matter which is, at best, tangential feels selfish and disrespectful. Eristic should be reserved for Face Book and not SWL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mckinnon Posted September 23, 2020 Author Share Posted September 23, 2020 Just close the thread if you want to. I already got what i needed....again thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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